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Sun Tzu vs. Iran
By Charlie
Tonight, I am in the mood for Chinese food. That being said, I’ll serve up some Sun-Tzu-inspired strategic commentary on the Iran crisis for the noble readership of the blog.
Says Sun on warfare:
3. Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in order is to attack the enemy's army in the field; and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.
What I take from this is that if your opponent can be “led” to accept your position without fighting, it is the “highest” form of generalship. This can be done by attacking his plans, or disrupting his strategy; Clausewitz, for an opposing view, says this:
"The acts we consider most important for the defeat of the enemy are . . --- Destruction of his army, if it is at all significant--- Seizure of his capital if it is not only the center of administration but also that of social, professional, and political activity
--- Delivery of an effective blow against his principal ally if that ally is more powerful than he."
Bottom line: Sun says try to attack the plans first (asymmetrical warfare in today’s parlance), Carl says attack the forces and centers of gravity first (a more “symmetrical” or “conventional” way of waging war.)
Comes now Iran. The basic “beef” we’ve got with Iran is that they are supporting terrorism, rapidly developing nuclear weapons, contributing to the instability of the region through regime statements and support of insurgents in Iraq. All three of these issues are becoming more and more dangerous toward US interests in the region.
A General Clausewitz, if he could be resurrected form the grave and transported to the E-Ring of the Pentagon, would probably be looking at Iran’s deployment of military forces. He would consider the blue force commitment in Iraq, the enemy population centers, and devise courses of action for a military strike to solve the problem. In modern terms, Clausewitz might have looked approvingly on the initial invasion plan for Iraq, as a solution to removing Saddam from power.
A zombie General Tzu might consider the cultural, economic, and political spheres of influence in Iran –and the relation these pressures have on the ruling regime. He might next consider how to exploit gaps and apply pressure in order to accomplish the mission. If the mission was to convince Iran to abandon their nukes and stop supporting terrorism, disconnecting the regime that allows these activities from a population that might have other ideas about where their country should go –and replacing it with a more conciliatory one (or convincing the current one to see it our way) could be the choice he may recommend. Tzu might have nodded if he got to peruse the SOF plans for infiltrating into Afghanistan, teaming up with the Northern Alliance, and using US airpower to thwart the Taliban.
So how would America implement a “Tzu”-like strategy for dealing with the current Iran problem? How could we “balk his plans” best? Obviously, a full-on, Clausewitzian conventional, OIF-1-style attack would be a 100% solution for our three goals: terrorist support, nuke pursuit, and regime change, but it would be a HUGE drain on the nation, the military, and the economy. But we don’t always need a 100% solution to our problems –sometimes a 75% solution will work just fine. Using the three main problems I outlined, and –this is important- assuming regime irrationality, let’s take a look at how to sucker-punch the Iranian regime.
Politically, we should take the Kim Jong Il nuclear acquisition model Iran is currently pursuing and turn it on its head. There’s been lots of liberal talk about negotiating with Iran proper: Let’s extend the invitation to talk to the Iranians, but tie negotiations to 3 goals. Iran must stop uranium enrichment, stop supporting Hizbollah and Hamas, and cool it on the “Death to Israel” speeches –then we will gladly talk to them. By extending this offer (which Iran will certainly not comply with), the international diplomatic chess board will be upset –Iran will be exposed by having to stand by its activities, which even by UN standards aren’t up to snuff.
Economically, Iran is vulnerable. It possesses little ability to refine its top export: oil. According to the World Fact Book, Iran’s top exports are “petroleum 80%, chemical and petrochemical products, fruits and nuts, [and] carpets.” Its imports are “industrial raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods, foodstuffs and other consumer goods, technical services, military supplies” and its main import providers are “Japan 18.4%, China 9.7%, Italy 6%, South Africa 5.8%, South Korea 5.4%, Taiwan 4.6%, Turkey 4.4%, Netherlands 4.1% (2004).” There is an ability to economically pressure Iran, its exports, its imports, and its import providers.
Finally, Politically (…by other means…) Iran’s regime is vulnerable. They sit on an ethnically diverse populace that while a majority is Shia Persian, there is a significant, and militant, minority of Kurds in the West, and Arabs in the south (who conveniently sit on a good chunk of the country’s oil fields.) In the vein of “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter,” perhaps we should start fomenting a Kurdish nationalist revolt across Iraq’s border –as Iran seems to be just as willing to foment a Shia revolt in Iraq. The Kurds would love weapons and money to fight “the man,” and as long as we make it clear that they can’t carry out their revolution in Turkey, it would cause significant problems for the image-conscious Iranian regime. In the south, significant across-the-border Information Operation campaigns targeting the Arabs in Iran should simply say: “look across the border, where the Iraqis are getting a cut of their oil wealth –how much are you getting from your regime?”
Fomenting domestic troubles in Iran, economically pressuring them, and giving them a way out (ala Libya) through negotiation and compromise (read: acquiescence to US demands) would be a dramatic change of course in US policy. It may be the course of action Sun Tzu would recommend, while Clausewitz may simply recommend launching the IBCMs.
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Comments
I agree with your Sun Tzu strategy but would include:
Announce publicly to the world and Iranian people the US demands along with the corresponding inventives we will offer.
I would mainly focus on:
No terror support
No nukes
(israel would have to live with iranian hatred because that's not gonna change anytime soon.)
with incentives being:
trade, diplomatic recognition, and non-agression promise
This is important so the Iranian people know that the USA is willing to talk, and what Iran would have to do.
If it comes down to using force, I would first try a Kosovo bombing campaign along with naval embargo and quarantine. Make the Iranian people enjoy no power, no water, no gas imports, no oil exports, etc.
But it's key to make sure they understand that if the regime were to give up on terror and nukes, it would all go away and peace and lightness would fill the air.
I think they might crack as fast as Serbia did. BUT, I don't think the US public would be up for this. Maybe we should be reminding the US public just how nasty Iran is...I bet most people have forgotten the late 70's and 80's problems with Iran.
I think the suggestions in this article are excellent but I would also appeal over the government's head to the Iranian people that we know they love us but we cannot and will not let these maniacs go too much longer in power.
Iran's regime can be destabilized but time is not our friend. As it is they are gearing up for a worldwide terror war the likes of which have never been seen before.
Sun Tzu is the less expensive option but if Iran gets the bomb, you can read on my blog what I think will happen next.
The economic weapon is what must be utilized. Iran is able to support a nuclear program because it is making billions in oil.
First, a very polite ultimatum is given. Such as, we will come to the table and talk, but you have to immediately cease your provacative actions. Basically those mentioned in the column. This is followed by a stern warning. We will shut down your oil exports and gas imports until you comply.
Once Iran declines. We stop the oil and open up our strategic reserve to fill the gap. That is what the reserve is for.
As was stated the Iranian people will get sick of the situation sooner or later.
I agree with the Kurdistan option for several reasons, primarily that we have spent millions of dollars already supporting no-fly zones since 1992, and the Kurds are practicing the closest thing to an Arab democracy as we see in the middle east.
As for Turkey - well, screw them too! they wouldn't allow the 3d ID through, so if some of their territory is zapped, plausible deniability stands to reason. I think that a lot of the Sunni resistance could have been quashed had the 3d ID been able to travel through Turkey, meaning that a large part of our OIF mission could have been realized with fewer American dead. Quid pro quo to the 'allies of America' who stand in the way of the realistic goals of a war on terror.
Yes. Kurdestan. But that would be letting the cat out of the bag. Either the endgame involves betraying the Kurds after the war is won and leaving them to Iranian retribution, or accepting redrawing the border with Iraq. And maybe Turkey :).
But while we're there - why not? Its a truly credible threat to dismember Iran. They also have a large Azeri majority adjacent to Azerbaijan (friendly), Baluchs adjacent to Pakistan ..
Also Baluchistan and a large Azeri mainority.
Many, many dominant Iranian politicians are Azeris or mixed blood Azeri-Persians.
OBL is hiding most of the time in Baluchistan.
Forget the ancients: step on the wallet.
Sun Tzu was brilliant but did not live in a time of international trade in exotic weapons technology; ditto Clauswitz.
The modern military runs on money. Without it the wheels come off.
It is quite impossible to construct and affirm ANY treaty with the mullahs. They are on a mission from Allah. The logic is no different than negotiating with Hitler: the whole exercise is a sham.
So just skip the European 'negotiating' gambit. It's a farce.
That would be General Sun and not General 'Tzu' - a quibble but in Chinese names the surname comes first, and 'first names' come second.
A lot of the suggestions here sound promising; I would only be cautious about the 'what then?' aspect of this? In other words, if you rile up the various ethnic groups and the regime is ended, how can we then put the genie back in the bottle? For example, the Kurds ultimate goal is to have their own state. How do you then walk them back from that? Or subsequently convince, post-conflict, the ethnic groups to then drop their arms and make nice with each other? THAT is the tough nut to crack.
Brett Stephens had a good WSJ piece this week on responding to Ahmadinejad's letter.
It seems to me that psychological preparation of the Iranian citizens is necessary before we go to war. Our first priority targets would be the hardline clerical leadership, intel services, revolutionary guards leadership, etc. If we are able to identify locations for the various leaders and hit them simultaneously, the Iranians would have a decision to make, continue the war or alter course. The US tends not to do well in long, low intensity wars so we should try to make it a high intensity, short war. That means getting the Iranian people to choose cooperation rather than continuation of the conflict.
The war is already on.
Another factor to consider about Iran is that a large part of their population is made up of young people under 30 years old. Although that can be a good thing when striving for a change of government, once any future U.S.-Iranian conflict is over, a key challenge would be to prevent that same young population from causing an anarchic situation. At present, these young people are largely unemployed and idle, which makes them easy to manipulate by the current regime. If you put a rifle in their hands and help them take down the mullahs, whose task will it be to then take that rifle out of the kids' hands? Remember, they may hate their present government, but that doesn't necessarily make them pro-American.
And how do you prevent the ethnic groups from then just following their own interests? That can be problematic.
how are you going to get the Kurds to revolt in one area (Iran) yet tell them they can't revolt in Turkey where there's already been a large amount of friction?
arm a group of ethnics like the Kurds and once they have the weapons they'll listen to their leaders and foment insurgencies wherever they like.
the theory - while attractive and with effective sleight-of-hand - strikes me as implausible for that very reason.
moreover,
didn't Turkey's refusal to let the 3rd ID thru on their way into Iraq have something to do with our support of the Kurdish minority?
Another good way of destabilizing a paranoid regime is to make them think they are penetrated with double agents, whether that's true or not. The Germans did this to the Russians in the late '30s. Because they had some miltary exchanges in the late '20s-early '30s, the Germans had detailed records about many Russian officers. They forged various documents that made it look like those officers were working for the Germans, and allowed known Russian spies to "steal" the information. This fed Stalin's paranoia and purges swept through the military, leading to the deaths or imprisonment of much of his officer corps.
So why not make the Mullahs think there are all sorts of plots against them from inside, say, the Revolutionary Guards? Of course, if there really are some, we don't want to derail them. But surely we can choose some sensitive ministry where we don't have any contacts, and make them think we do....
Too bad our otherwise energetic & ubiquitous western polling organizations can't furnish we the people with some decently accurate data on just how popular/unpopular the theocracy is/isn't, with this percentage or that, of Iranians willing/unwilling to take measures, under this or that condition, to overthrow their government.
I dislike pessimism as a general outlook, but the talk of imminent popular uprising sounds for all the world like wishful thinking.
"...Clausewitz may simply recommend launching the ICBMs."
Ot twelve Cruise missiles and call it a day.
Sun Tzu and CvC are moot when meditating on the current Iran situation. Ahmadinejad cannot field a proper army, is in a political corner, is low on cash, is a messianic on a philosophical plane that dwarfs Jim Jones and David Koresh and he hears voices that tell him what to do. He is eagerly awaiting his death and the deaths of every other human.
Just Sayin'...
The Mullahs have impoverished their country to build nukes. There is no diplomatic carrot that will persuade them to give them up, no diplomatic stick or sanctions that will do so. Nukes are their ticket to the Big Boys' Club, to the status of Great Power. Once they have nukes everybody will be afraid of them and they can swagger around threatening whomever they wish. The Mullahs' dearest wishes are genocide of the Jews and Iranian imperialist aggresion (Iranians must get used to ruling the world says Ahmedinejad). Nukes are the keys to fulfilling their dreams. There will be no safety for anyone, Iranians included, until the Pharaohs of Teheran are overthrown and replaced by some kind of halfway dcent, consensual government.
The Iranians put these swine in power 27 years ago. On them falls the primary responsibility of rremoving them. We should help, but they must do it. They have until the Mullahs start the nuke war they have promised, for after that it will be too late, and retaliation must come. Then there will be no way to tell the Iranians who support the Pharaohs from those who do not, they will all fry together. Faster goddamit.
One short comment. Everyone seems to focus on Ahmadinejad. This is an error. He has some control, some influance but the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei) and "The Council of Guardians" are the REAL leaders,and decision makers.
They also control most of the money, which as stated earlier, they are keeping in some offshore banks for a rainy day.
Perhaps when it starts raining missiles.
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
To the list of get-to-the-table demands, perhaps we should add the return of our embassy.
A thought:
Lets give them what they want.
Iran has stated that they want Nuclear Power for "Peaceful" purposes.
Since this a a country still wow'ed by surplus Russian military leftovers from the '70's, anything that says they are going to produce a nuclear facility from scratch makes me quite worried that they simply lack the intellectual power to do it safely (from an intellecual bleeding out or "brain drain" they have experienced for years.)
So: Hand them technology for a Pebble Bed Reactor. China I think would love to sell then their newest high tech toy. But instead of letting them produce the "pebbles" let other nations produce and code them for Iran. Iran gets nuclear power, a few other countries get a boost to their tech side, and Iran gets Nuclear Power that they can't corrupt (easily) into a bomb, removing that problem.
I realize it will not be that simplistic, but in using that path I feel Iran will either take it, releiving us from worrying about Iran with a bomb, or else they will go on their own course, showing the world their purpose isn't to have a peaceful nuclear program.
Either case, in proposing that solution, Iran is forced to react, without us having to make a threatening move. We offer a gift, not a show of force. But in the choice of accepting that gift, Iran would have to either delay/hide/abandon the nuclear course they are going, or proceed with the knowledge that the world knows it is trying to make a bomb.
Of course, I might be wrong!
Josh
I wrote about this quite some time ago, here:
http://bowramp.blogspot.com/2005/05/iran-what-to-do.html
The Azeri's, though the largest non Persian minority, have mostly bought into the existing system.
If I were to try dismantling Iran, I would attempt to work a deal with the Iraqis and Kurds as follows: Give the Kurds the north of Iraq, including the Northern oil fields and Iranian Kurdistan and let them form a new nation from those two areas. The Turkish portion will be off-limits. In return, the Iraqis get to absorb the oil-rich province of Khuzistan. The Iraqis get rid of their most significant ethnic minority, and some oil-fields, but gain a lot more shia arabs, oil, and total control of the Euphrates delta. The Kurds get a country of their own and some oil income. The Iraqis end up with about the same amount of land, but more oil, more brethern, and better access to the Gulf. Of course, the Sunni in Iraq would be upset, because they lose a certain amount of influence, but it may simplify Iraqi politics by making it more bi-polar rather than three sided.
The other area we could exploit is Baluchistan. Baluchistan is another ethnic area split-up by the European colonial powers. Tbe Balochi people currently live in portions of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The Balochs hate not only the Persians, but the Pakistanis as well. On the other hand, they get along quite well with the Indians. We might consider if it would be possible to make some deals with the Balochs and Afghanistan. The Balochi areas of Afghanistan are relatively small. We might suggest a little land swap and let Afghanistan have some of Eastern Iran in return for ceding the Baluchi areas to a new independent Baluchistan. In return, the Baluchs would give a special deal to Afghanistan for trade through the port of Bandar Abbas. We could possibly get Turkmenistan on board by giving them a pipeline route through Western Afghanistan and Baluchistan to Bandar Abbas as well. Finally, this would really upset the Pakistanis. That might be a good thing, or not.
All of this would certainly upset the apple cart of geopolitics in the Middle East and there would surely be a lot of hell to pay. But would those new conditions be worse in the long run than the conditions we now face? If Kurdistan, Khuzistan, and Blochistan could be carved off of Iran, it would put a real hurt to the Persians economically and politically.
Your Sun Tzu-style strategy has merit; or rather is at least worth a try: if nothing else it will clarify the situation and give us a bit of cover.
On the other hand, if the Iranians perservere and actually announce they have a nuke, it'll be time to launch the ICBMs.
It is fashionable to view indirect warfare as desirable, even preferable to more direct, Western ways of warfare that focus on actual destruction of the enemy's forces.
The reason one has a full range of forces is that sometimes, even the best generalship dedicated to indirect strategic methods cannot achieve victory without actual fighting, especially when the enemy is hellbent on forcing the duel a l'outrance.
At some point, we may just have to fight the Iranians, and if so, t'would best be done quickly and thoroughly.
I think a list of demands a la Sun Tzu as described in several of the posts is the correct course of action. As President I would make a major speech covering these points. But at the end I would discuss Ahmadinejad's letter specifically pointing out that it takes the traditional form of a Muslim declaration of war. I would then end with the question to the Iranians "Is this a declaration of war against the United States? We wait for your answer."
The Kurds are getting nothing. Their only chance of keeping what they earned by US assistance is by implementing themseves into Iraqi structure and keep hands of off Kerkük. Changeing of boarders will lead to multiple wars beside Iran war. I do not believe American power mechanism in Washington is that stupid.
to commenter Nr. 5 called roguejet
------------
As for Turkey - well, screw them too! they wouldn't allow the 3d ID through, so if some of their territory is zapped, plausible deniability stands to reason. I think that a lot of the Sunni resistance could have been quashed had the 3d ID been able to travel through Turkey, meaning that a large part of our OIF mission could have been realized with fewer American dead. Quid pro quo to the 'allies of America' who stand in the way of the realistic goals of a war on terror.
------------
Yes! Come and screw us too.
Dumb Arabs and Megalomania Persians are not able to force you back to America.
We will.
I think your analysis is naive, for several reasons, but the failure of embargos to work is sufficient. No need to go into the rest.
That is not why I am posting, however. Why do you care whether the Kurds would turn their military power, if they had any, on Turkey?
The remaking of western Asia into a stable multinational region can only happen if natural states evolve -- there should be about 19 of them, instead of the 10 now. And it has to start with a Great Kurdistan, the largest real nation in the world without a state.
If you don't buy that, then all talk about democracy, modernity etc. is just eyewash.
There seems widespread belief on the Right that making civilians feel pain will cause them to turn against their government. This idea is voiced by other comments here. It is likely quite the opposite. Bombing and infrastructure damage will unite civilians against the the direct culprits (US) quickly and permanently instead of the indirect ones. Germany in WWII comes to mind. The more I read about our current quandry in Iran, the more I think we're facing a major nuclear exchange, initiated by Iran but ended by US.
You want to divide Western Asian states from 10 into 19?
We now you Amricans to good. You even don't recognize Lausanne treaty and Turkish territorial integrity.
Kurdish groups holding conferences in US Congress with maps like the above one disrespecting Turkey's integrity.
USA meeting with PKK.
USA giving PKK save heaven in North-Iraq.
This game is soon to be ended. To your disprofit.
Ataturk's protestations re: disrespecting Turkish territorial integrity, citing the Treaty of Lausanne, ring hollow considering the Turks have violated at least eight seperate provisions of ToL some twenty times.
And then there's Cyprus.
Why not deplloy a very very small nuke into an abandoned military/science facility in Iran and set it off? Iran gets caught with a weapon and demonstrated inability to control its deployment. The world has clear evidence... Saudi Arabia realizes that Iran ha a bomb and they don't... This is a fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We are being push by both sides.
Ataturk, yeah, me personally. I don't respect Turkey's territorial integrity, and I despise its brutality, antidemocratic values and disguised military despotism. And I believe in self-determination of the peoples, just the same as the other Ataturk, the great one.
But you needn't worry. Neither American political party has any idea of pursuing the principles of the Declaration of Independence anywhere in western Asia. More's the pity.
What a terribly simplified conception of both theories.
The Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
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I would suggest the following Sun Tzu strategy:
Announce publicly to the world and Iranian people the US demands along with the corresponding inventives we will offer.
I would mainly focus on:
No terror support
No nukes
with incentives being:
trade, diplomatic recognition, and non-agression promise
This is important so the Iranian people know that the USA is willing to talk, and what Iran would have to do.
If it comes down to war, I would first try a Kosovo bombing campaign along with naval embargo and quarantine. Make the Iranian people enjoy no power, no water, no gas imports, no oil exports, etc.
But it's key to make sure they understand that if the regime were to give up on terror and nukes, it would all go away and peace and lightness would fill the air.
I think they might crack as fast as Serbia did. BUT, I don't think the US public would be up for this. Maybe we should be reminding the US public just how nasty Iran is...I bet most people have forgotten the late 70's and 80's problems with Iran.