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The Lebanese Front, As I See It
By Maj P
Being home from work today, I’ve been able to do some more reading and thinking on Israel and Lebanon. This is how I see the situation, and how I read Israel’s tasks.
First, I read Bill Roggio’s post that I found by way of Michelle Malkin’s blog, A Change in Strategy: IDF to Expand Ground Campaign in Lebanon. He makes very sound observations, although I’d say that it’s not a change in strategy, since strategy does not change week to week. Rather, I’d say it’s the continuation of Israel’s strategy as the campaign unfolds. However, the substance of his article is entirely correct. “Hezbollah must be dealt a military and political defeat to prevent Hezbollah from dominating the Lebanese political and military realms. This will have to happen on the ground,” he writes. True.
Strategically, Israel cannot coexist with a Lebanon in which Hezbollah lives and breathes. With Hezbollah an active entity, it will continue in a state of war with Israel which it will carry on by various means. Israel will suffer, and Lebanon will suffer. Israel’s strategic effort ought to involve diplomacy as well as naked force. It has to show Lebanon that a Hezbollah-free Lebanon is a happy Lebanon, and one that has no essential quarrel with Israel. That is the ultimate carrot. I am willing to bet that Israel’s very active secret services are courting certain Lebanese factions to pass that message. The key is helping the Lebanese government throw off the parasites and stand up to Syria, without seeming to be doing so overtly.
Operationally, the IDF has to break Hezbollah’s ability to shell and rocket northern Israel. To do that it needs to interdict the group’s supply lines, engage and defeat its indirect fire assets to the greatest extent possible, and destroy its bases. This will, unfortunately, involve destruction to Lebanese towns, roads and other facilities, which exacerbates but also highlights the strategic issues.
Tactically, the IDF has to meet Hezbollah units on the ground, root them out and destroy them. The air campaign is simply a shaping and supporting effort. The victory on the ground will come when IDF small units have put Hezbollah units in the classic combined arms dilemma: they can’t move or they will be spotted and fired on, and they can’t stay put because they will be encircled and defeated. This is, historically, the IDF’s greatest strength—small unit action, at night, in close quarters.
Once the tactical victory is won, though, something or someone has to fill the void in south Lebanon. Who will do it? The Israelis cannot occupy the territory again. Are there persons in Lebanon or Israel who were displaced from there when Hezbollah took control in 2000? Or are there sufficient numbers of residents of south Lebanon who are sick of Hezbollah to provide a stable population under the right circumstances? This is where the legitimate government of Lebanon can begin to assert its sovereignty and provide a lasting solution to an ugly problem.
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Comments
If Israel can't occupy Lebanon again, maybe it wasn't such a great idea to bomb the hell out of the country and thereby create a whole new generation of Hezbollah supporters. Just a thought.
This is ridiculous, is this a Pro-Zionist website? or just a site based on mis-informing people? Or is it just ignorance? Its the second article I read on Lebanon and again it is silly!
Hezbollah was created in 1982 because Israel ILLEGALY Invaded and occupied Lebanon for decades! It is Israel that attacks Lebanon and occupies it! Hezbolah managed to defeat Israel and chase them off MOST of Lebanon in 2000 after 24+ years of occupation, but Israel still ILLEGALLY occupies some parts of the country!
"Strategically, Israel cannot coexist with a Lebanon in which Hezbollah lives and breathes. With Hezbollah an active entity, it will continue in a state of war with Israel which it will carry on by various means"
So Lebanon is supposed to live with Israel occupying the country rather than fight back? It was already war before Hezbollah! So, you guys believe Hezbolah started this whole conflict or something like that? It was all peace and love before they created their party?
"Or are there sufficient numbers of residents of south Lebanon who are sick of Hezbollah to provide a stable population under the right circumstances?"
Well if you can find one who is sick of hezbollah thats already good. I can assure you you will have a hard time finding one though! Hezbollah creates schools, hospitals... Whenever Israel destroys someones house they give him $12k to start over. They rebuild homes...
You thinking about the aftermath of Hezbollah like they will be beaten is such an ignorant thing to do. Hezbollah is growing stronger every day and that thanks to Israel. Until Israel leaves from all illegally occupied territories, and Palestine has a state with east jerusalem as its capital there is no reason to imagine an after-hezbollah.
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I had the same thought upon reading Bill Roggios post, that this is more of a continuation of strategy than a change.
I believe that the key to postwar Lebanon is still Syria. They must be either taken down or isolated to where they cannot resupply HB or whatever remains/regrows in its place. I think that Israel is very aware of this and will not settle for anything less.