Prepping the Battlespace

I wonder what happens when the Israeli's find Iranian Revolutionary Guards amongst the Hamas fighters....

i think that you mean hezbollah not hamas bingo. but that is a very good question otherwise.

wonderful analysis John!! This is why I visit you and Charlie daily!

Agreed. Israel is preparing for a push into Lebanon, that push only being a matter of time.

Interesting that Mubarak thinks that he persuaded Israel to avoid sending ground forces into Lebanon. I wonder if he's taking credit for something that didn't actually happen, and will wind up with egg on his face.

Once again the United States, led by it's pro Arab State Department will stop Israel from a final victory, thus paving the way for many more of these battles until Israel finally loses and that will satisfy both the E.U. and U.S. State Department.

I think you mean "consistent" vs. "concurrent," but otherwise a brilliant insight. Thanks for sharing, I hope you're right and that the globe's next chemotherapy treatment is about to begin.

Yeah, that's pretty much the way I see it, too. My only question is, how far do the Israelis push it? Do they just go into Southern Lebanon, or do they take the Bekaa Valley, too?

Do they keep going all the way to Damascus?

It's not that far, you know...

Once the IDF has pushed far enough North, beyond rocket range, it likely will halt and start to entrench their positions. There is still the possibility of Syria attempting to re-supply their friends. If that happens we should see some intradiction of Syrian roadways leading West. There seems to be no immediate possibility of Lebanon being able to insert a permanent Army force that can actually safeguard the border territories. Hence it seems that the IDF will be in Southern Lenanon for quite some time.

How far they go will depend on Syria. Syria is reported to have moved at least one division up to the Lebanese border. If they move into Lebanon to counter the Israeli ground forces, that will be a green light for an Israeli "proportional" response
chasing the Hezbees and Syrian troops back as far into Syria as they want.
Pray for the capture of a few Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, as that will
truly loose the dogs of war.

I feel that that the Israelis need to destroy Hezbollah now; their logic may well be that if they wait another year or two, then the possibility of Hezbollah getting its hands on an Iranian provided nuclear weapon are very real.

Nice analysis.
I hope they venture into the Bekaa Valley if not further.
Have any air strikes hit in that region?

My take is that Hezboallah has the heart of its power in the Bekaa Valley. That's Israel's strategic objective. They're not going to "push back" Hezboallah. That would be stupid. That would be like Ike's "Broad Front" offensive after the Ardennes. Rather, there will be airborne/armored operations up to the Bekaa, along the intellectual lines of "Market Garden", without the assumptions that undid Montgomery.

Battlespace is being prepped, yes. The MSM doesn't see that, of course. That's why smart people come here and don't go to the NYT. Early this week I expect multiple airborne drops to set up "hold until relieved" blocking positions, followed by a huge, very violent armored thrust up the eastern spine of Lebanon to the Bekaa. You'll see the IDF engineer troops come into their own as they set up bridges over the Litani. Objective is the Beirut/Damascus Highway and other East/West thoroughfares.

Smash, we likely won't know if Israel intends to go after Syria until after the IAF strikes Syria, or Olmert openly declares war, following which the IAF strikes Syria. 50/50 on which would happen. I wrote a small post on Strategypage explaining that Israel will have to deal with Hizb'allah in S. Lebanon before going after Syria, hence Hizb'allah in Lebanon is the target now, irrespective of the actualy long term strategy.

http://strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/36-21438.asp

Hail Mary? More like classic Blitzkrieg tactics. Israel is executing a strategic plan to destroy Hezbollah. Only question is if Syria and/or Iran want to save their creation. I think not.

Hezbollah should have anticipated the IDF prepping the battlefield but didn't and will pay the price. Hezbollah will probably be annihilated in the coming days.

Bingo Charlie -

I think the IDF will find not only Iranian advisors, but also Syrian... the missiles that hit Haifa today were Syrian. Wonder if Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (the KGB man who once said that there are no former chekists) still has some of his own advisors in Syria (part of the old cold war). Probably not, but that finding would be even more interesting, no? ;-)

Smash -

The Bekaa Valley incursion I think would definitely reveal more Syrian participation, and I think a lot more. I am pretty sure that the Baathists from Saddam/Iraq sent their WMD there ahead of the war, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of those were there, particularly on the Syrian side. But the IDF's first and foremost worry are the Katyushas and their mobile launchers, in addition to the destruction of the Hizballah.

Iran will fight to the last Syrian. I hope the IDF will make it so. On to Damascus.

After this is over and the Israeli Luftwaffe and heere have totally smashed Lebanon's infrastructure, are they going to pay for the damage, after they withdraw when their offensive proves ultimately unsuccessful? Not a chance with true Likkud believer Bush in charge.

I am totally against fanatic anti-semite liberals seeking reparations for the damage caused by the self-defense actions of the Israelis.

Let the OIC handle that `re-building`

Anybody know where the US 6th Fleet is right now?

Flood of Liberals Crossing the Border Into Canada
http://chronwatch.com/content/contentDisplay.asp?aid=22454

After this is over and the Israeli Luftwaffe and heere have totally smashed Lebanon's infrastructure, are they going to pay for the damage...?

Absolutely! As soon as Hamas and Hizballah pay reparations for the hundreds of rocket attacks on Israel that destroyed infrastructure (you know, military targets like schools, hospitals, homes, etc.). Check's in the mail, sweetie!

I wonder when the first rapes will be reported, probabily after the US gets involved

I do think that Israel is planning on the complete destruction of Hezbollah, but I don't think it's going to be easy.

More than likely the IDF is going to experience some tough air losses at the hands of syrian/iranian provided manpads It's going to be pretty hard to provide air support when every balcony or rooftop can become an improvised AA site.

ASW

Great post. Bekaa Valley next week, if Bush does not put a stop to it.

"It's going to be pretty hard to provide air support when every balcony or rooftop can become an improvised AA site."

It's also going to be pretty hard to live in Lebanon when every balcony or rooftop can become a military target. Of course if that happens you can guess who will be blamed for it...

More than likely the IDF is going to experience some tough air losses at the hands of syrian/iranian provided manpads It's going to be pretty hard to provide air support when every balcony or rooftop can become an improvised AA site.

Doubtful. The IAF faced a far greater SAM/AAA threat in 1982 and they still crushed the Syrian air force without much trouble. I think the final score in terms of enemy/friendly aircraft shot down was something like 82-1.

Hmmm, as Ronnie points about, the Bekaa Valley is top o' the list for where Saddam's WMDs (or supplies to make them) went missing to. Will Syria and Iran really want the IDF poking around Bekaa? Could they stop them if they tried?

I am curious about a few things.

I looked at a few terrain maps of Lebanon and it appears transit routes for a ground operation will rely on roads moreso than open fields. Was this the case in previous actions here by Israel, hence the case this time?

If this is the case, what do you think Hezballah's engagement strategy will be knowing this?

I ask because Hezballah has declared they have many surprises for Israel. One might be to mine the roads with heavy explosives, at choke points, or maybe even long stretches, both to slow down the offensive or to attack lead forces. I don't know about trapping for ambushes, though, I suspect they will try to keep as far in front the Israelis as possible. In any event, they have had years to prepare for an invasion and while I don't give them credit for being geniuses, they do have some brain matter.

Another question is how effective the urban tactics seen in Iraq, particularly the VIED, might be as Israel enters built up areas. How suicidal do you anticipate Hezballah to be in the fight? Could you expect Hezballah to have an arsenal of 5,000 VIED's in the ready?

You can see a map of the recent Israeli airstrikes here:

http://www.debka.com/pictures/Lebanon.jpg

Yeah, I know it's from Debka, but it seems legit; I've read about most of these attacks in the papers.

You'll notice a town in the Beqaa Valley getting the Johnny Cash treatment (a ring of fire, for those of you who don't listen to country). That's Baalbek. Baalbek is noted for two things: some truly splendid Roman ruins, and being Hezbollah's northern military headquarters. The reported strikes were on Hezbollah's TV network, the compounds of some senior Hezbollah officials, and who knows what else.

If destroying Hezbollah is the Israelis' objective - and they say it is - then that's where they have to go. And judging by the strikes, that's where they're going.

Time will tell of course. It always does.

A landmine has already destroyed an Israeli APC with 4 crew and Hiuzbullah (and friends) successfully attacked the Israeli navy.

I think it will not be a walkover at all.

Aaron, if you think the tragic death of 8 Israeli servicemen is going to stop the juggernaut, you need to think a bit harder.

Who said it will be a "walkover"? Nobody in their right mind. But I'll tell you this, Israel is fighting at 10% at the moment. Woe betide anybody who pushes them to 100%.

I am not sure if the IDF is actually preparing for a land invasion. Maybe some small unit incursions, but not the sort of incursions carried out for example in Operation Litani (1978) or actual invasion executed rather clumsily in the 1982 Lebanon War. Although the IDF is trying to circumscribe Hezbollah's movement through its artillery, naval and air barrages, the IDF would not be prepared to invade as it did in 1982. Back then, it learnt the hard way that its manoeuvre-oriented ground forces cannot operate effectively in the very difficult terrain of the South Lebanon. Things have not changed. Together with Hezbollah's small-unit tactics and very laborious and rather slow invasion the "invasion" would prove quite costly. Hence, the IDF's choice for firepower as a coercive measure. At most, there will be some sayerot (special forces) reprisal actions supported by the air force. However, nothing can be definitely struck of the list of IDF options....

Dr. Sergio Catignani
Lecturer
Department of War Studies
King's College London

Saw on the news yesterday that the IAF was hitting gas stations in south Lebabnon. At first I thought that was odd but it fits right in with this analysis. Without fuel it will take a long time to walk back to Syria.

Hezbollah has abandoned their principal advantage as a fourth generation-styled force in confronting Israel in such a direct way. By massing as, in one way or another, a conventional force, presenting conventional targets to the Israelis, Hezbollah is vulnerable to a conventional attack by Israel's massively superior second/third generation styled forces.

What you have here is Fallujah writ large. The Israelis are going to hit Southern Lebanon, and hit it hard, and every hostile Shia fighter south of Beirut is going to pay the price, initially. The question is, what then?

Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982 faltered after the assasination of Bashir Gamayel prevented the Israelis from stabilizing Lebanon on their own terms, with the phalangists in control and the Palestinians and Shia kept under control. That's when you had the withdrawal to the Southern Lebanese buffer.

Today we have to ask ourselves if Lebanese christians are going to be willing to fight on Israel's side, and provide security and stability forces in the aftermath of an Israeli invasion and at least partial occupation. Israel will do as well as it traditionally has fighting force on force, but is vulnerable to prolonged fourth generation asymmetrical warfare, just as most modern industrialized nations are. After the rather deficient treatment of the SLA in the aftermath of Israel's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, I'd be very surprised if Lebanese troops in any significant numbers show themselves to be willing to muster in alliance with the magen david.

Therein lies the risk. If Israel rampages through Southern Lebanon, then withdraws when it sees its job as done, or attempts to reoccupy Southern lebanon without sufficient Lebanese support, Israel faces an ultimately untenable position in which it will be extremely vulnerable to the same sort of fourth generation warfare that America faces today in Iraq, except instead of the relative novices the U.S. faced at least initially in Iraq, Hezbollah are old pros at low-intensity conflict, and Israel will be in for a bloody drawn-out fight.

Or, Option "C".

IDF holds the territory until:
C) Olmert caves to world opinion pressures to pull out for .

;(

Do over...

Or, Option "C".

IDF holds the territory until:
C) Olmert caves to world opinion pressures to pull out for {add any given pollitically correct excuse here}.

;(

Just thinking out-loud

• Hezbollah destroyed or combat ineffective and out of Lebanon, they walk out leaving equipment behind. Back to Syria of course. If they were not exterminated.
• L.A. along with I.D.F. jointly secure South Lebanon, letting the L.A. fight the 4gen fight, its their home they will want Hezbollah remnants out and they would be best at it with I.D.F. support. This is a plus for the I.D.F. and L.A. it’s a win – win.
• If Syrians make a move into Lebanon I.D.F waits until one mile in and then eliminates them making sure signal to Syria is understood that they are to stay out of it, I.D.F. does not violate Syrian air space (to hold the line on escalation at least in worlds eyes) If Syria does not get the drift the I.D.F. is then “justified in making them understand�.
• Hezbollah “Surprises� for I.D.F., guess what!!! Just found Sadam’s WMD remnants!! And guess who gave it to them the Syrians, at the Iranians prompting. Iran needs a diversion and what would be better than WMD and Hezbollah and having Hamas stirring the kettle from the ghettos.
• Iran currently can only fight by proxy (they are buying more time-for what ???) if it escalates beyond proxy they would have 3 fronts I.D.F. via Syria - U.S. from Afghanistan – U.S-G.B. from Iraq not to mention others, this would also give U.S. / G.B. great reason to target Iranian nuclear facilities.
o Iran is some what in the clear politically as Russia and China do not yet want to publicly link Iran to Hezbollah even though they know it to be true, same scenario as Iraq before the war on this point. Would we expect anything else?
o The region would remain relatively silent as;
 The region does not want a strong Persian influence in the region.
 How long can you fight for a brother who keeps destroying your house, the Arab Street is getting wary of the only destruction happening in their yard.
o Iran is walking a fine line as long as U.S. credibility is still down.
o If Hezbollah actually uses WMD the U.S / G.B. will have the green light for targeting Iran and the Russians and Chinese will not be of much help to them at this point.
• Escalation
o Syrian or Iranians found with Hezbollah
o I.D.F. push through to Syria
o Syrians left to fend for self; Iranians would then have to consider U.S. and G.B. on both sides and the I.D.F. overrunning Syria. Can Iran fight a three front fight?

• Iran will soon feel surrounded using that for justification for nuclear weapons capability. ( yes they are self creating this issue of surrounded) “See we are surrounded we must be allowed nuclear capability�.
• A campaign must be waged to very clearly show the world so that down to the smallest imbecile that Iran was offered a way out and they and only they refused the path. Sun-Tzu “a cornered enemy will fight harder than one with an escape�, if they refuse their escape their extermination can only then be blamed on the leaders. Will they fight to the last? Or they will replace the leaders/revolt?
• Then begs the KEY question does the west have the intestinal fortitude and will to be this strong!!!

Saber 2 just thinking aloud

IDF must push into the Bekaa. It is politically impossible for the Olmert government to allow Israel to accept a Hezboallah missile barrage against the Israeli homeland and leave the Hez in place. The difficulty of the campaign is secondary to the necessity for the campaign to take place.

The Bekaa is the strategic objective. Once the Israeli formations cross the Litani and are in the Bekaa, you'll see some open-field running, Sinai style.

It may very well be that Israels long term strategy is more defensive than offensive. It may well be that they are prepping the battlefield, although the long term goal may be denying logistical support to a potential invading army. I believe Israel takes the threats of Iran much more seriously than anyone in the west. Keeping Hezbollah in is a benefit to a developing blocking stategy.

Keeping Hezbollah in is a benefit to a developing blocking stategy.

This makes no sense. Please explain.

Saber 2:
couple of things.
Not sure about the state of the Lebanese army at the moment, and using Lebanese Christians for this sort of security role is dangerous, because they'd be policing palis and shia, not their own -- it would be sort of like having Pesh Merga patrolling Baghdad.

Iran is fighting only by proxy now, I think, because they're waiting until they're immune from a serious counter-attack before joining the fray -- that means deliverable nuclear weapons. Right now, they're effectively buying time with their Party of God friends in Lebanon. No reason to jump into the fight and risk infrastructure or force themselves into a corner where they'll have to close the Hormuz, which would be economically tough for them, but politically necessary if they go to war.

ditto SMASH, please elaborate Keith.

William Scharf:

Good point about the L.A. I suspect that you are correct. OK now look at it this way, the Lebanese are/were not strong enough to remove Hezbollah alone but want to dearly to get more outside aid in, and they are trying to unite a fractured society, the IDF provided the muscle and offered control with back up assistance on call or more precisely the threat of, this gives the Lebanese Palis and Shia the opportunity to be more than Palis and Shia but also Lebanese as well,(kind of a keep Hezbollah (AKA Syria) out and we all can then keep the IDF out, line of thinking) this also allows the Palis and Shia to save face, which is very important. TRUE the thought is HIGHLY optimistic, but what a great political victory for Lebanese and the rest if it were to happen, it would also signal that the Arab side of the street has had enough and is now wanting to join the world with the rest of us, well at least those in Lebanon. The reason for optimism is the events of the last two years or so.

Thanks for the confirming thought, as that is my point Iran is full tilt on a deliverable nuclear capability or something of the like. Again though they have to justify/probable cause, the development of their nuclear capability to their standoff-ish friends, going back to the “we are surrounded by those looking to get us mentality�. Instead of a non-proliferation treaty to cover their development as NK did. Iran is using a different tactic to the same end. Then Iran has the region by the short hairs.

Saber 2

This is not over until Damascus is on fire and Tehran is either at the negotiation table or picking up the pieces of spent israeli rockets that destroyed Iran's above ground nuke facilities. Appeasement is over. The Sons of David have had enough. Exceptional tactical and strategic anlaysis by all who have responded.

Saber,
I wish I were as optimistic as you on Lebanon. Frankly, I almost wish for the days when the Israelis could count on a no-holds-barred killer like Bashir Gemayel to maintain order. Problem is that Lebanese nationalism doesn't really cross over the cultural cleavages. Who knows, maybe I'm completely wrong, and maybe we'll see a new moderate ally in the region.

On Iran, the key is the Israeli bomb. Iran knows that they can only push the envelope so far, because they have to assume that the Samson Option is real, and that the Israeli government will have the will to make the call to Tel Nof when the time comes. With a nuclear capability of their own, Iran neutralizes much of the Israeli advantage, allowing it more leeway in terms of power projection.

Greetings,

YEP! I can't agree more with your theory.

With all the shelling of the border and it's towns, the moving in of armor and armored buldozers into them, and the hitting of roads and bridges leading out country, it sure looks like Israel is setting up for some type of hammer and anvil manuver. They may go right thru country this time.

I think they are showing great restraint and letting other governments get their civies out first. Then they will be going ballistic on their butts! Give it three... four days tops if there is no diplomatic solution first.

The no brainer bets are placed on the little speck of sand country, with the Star of David on it's flag, that fought a real war, not this arty exchange going on now, for it's very life, ON THREE FRONTS at once and kicked serious ass!

Man if I couldn't have a fellow trooper by my side, I'd take one of these guys in a heart beat!

Rick

This is my first post here so bear with me. Unfortunately, I doubt the IDF will enter Lebanon in force. A sustained incursion into southern Lebanon seems less likely since the range of the terrorist rockets has increased. In order to end the threat to Israel, the entire country would need to be occupied. I don't think the IDF wants to do that and like it or not the world community wouldn't allow it.

It's ashame that I find myself wishing for ground combat and a wider war, but we need finality in the Middle East. That's something that we never get and will probably never get. Still, I hope some sort of large scale ground operation is launched with an armored push into the Bekaa Valley. That should be the crown jewel of any operation.

If Syria is dragged into the battle, all the better. The regime is ripe for collapse and it would do wonders in stemming the flow of insurgents into al Anbar. It would also leave Iran as the only terrorist threat left in the region. Isolation gives the U.S. better options.

Having said all that, I don't think we'll see the kind of operation for which we are hoping.

If the Hez missile attacks can be reduced through plinking the missiles or simple exhaustion of supply, then why not just continue Hez plinking until there are no more targets?

This is especially true if the larger missiles can be destroyed in launch preparations as seemed to occur today.

Syria has chemical weapons and the means to deliver them. I don't expect any serious attacks on Syria.

Point taken that Israel is only at 10% right now, but Hizbullah has had many years to prepare their battlespace as well.

I don't believe Olmert has the mental make up to continue fighting to a complete victory over Hezbollah and therefore he will cave into pressure to stop and reach a political settlement. This will be viewed by Arabs as a victory for them and a defeat for Israel, thereby putting Israel in danger for the foreseeable future. If this Happens Olmert should be removed from office.

William Scharf :

My optimism stems from the fact they kicked out the Syrians and life improved, kick out Hezbollah and that much better, but reality says like you do that is a tough row to hoe, I am hoping they can pull something of the like off.

On the Sampson point that makes plenty sense, so the IDF would need to counter to keep that advantage, they need to keep that option obscure �do we have it, do we not, you bold enough to find out�. I would then suspect that the Iranians are effectively buying time to bury what capability they do have before the IDF sends in the F-16 Strike force to hit what can be seen and continue to work on it.

Section 9; I agree and With the latest developments I would think it a forgone conclusion that the IDF can not allow Hezbollah to remain in its current state, to occupy all of Lebanon is not necessary, but the Bekaa Valley will have to be cleared one end to the other to flush out all the cockroaches. Return of the soldiers is a flagging excuse to execute removal of Hezbollah.

Tactical flash back, as I read the sole focus is on Iranian nuclear capabilities and Hezbollah‘s annoying bs, as we crest the IV line is anyone watching our 6, checking the wadi’s to see if they are hiding behind us? Meaning is this to a degree a red herring and the Iranians are really working on other WMD’s that are to a degree easier to make and deliver, achieving the same effect of removing the Sampson option advantage. Right now our focus is so tight we are becoming a laser beam. (Bombs are manlier but poison is just as effective)

No point in Attacking Syria unless they jump in for Hezbollah and the IDF in effect has told them to stay out of it by cutting the connections to them, the determination factor is if the Syrians get the drift, I bet they hold tight at the border, for now anyway.

William great point on advantage of IDF nuclear capability? Keeping Iran in check for the time being anyway. Would you think a ruse of build it, let them think it can work, and that we are trying for it and then back door us with a different type of capability with ability to deliver? It would be a well thought out and patiently planned deception, as they have the time! Really what’s the hurry?

Something does not smell right. When your advance is swift and easy it’s an ambush!! Is the IDF being baited into Lebanon for a nasty surprise courtesy Hezbollah, if Hezbollah can lure out 50=70% of the IDF and then release a “surprise� talk about shift in the tables leaving Israel very vulnerable? Hezbollah uses suicide bombers, what about a suicide valley the difference being what? Extra martyrs? ok that’s kind of out there but that would be the effect of PCHEM no?

Saber 2

I'm a Christian Lebanese citizen who wants to give u an advice.

In my research, I always find that the USA army do the same mistake, they dont think out of the box, where the box refer to "military aspects".

For example, what the military always fail to take into consideration, that a colossal Battlespace preparation will surely entail some rogue missiles or shells hitting civilians, and thats the nature course of war. but what they fail to grasp is that thats what the extremists always try to abuse. Every ONE wrong missile on a civilian target, would be exploited and used to recruit 1000 angry militant.

Guys, we in lebanon always follow up on news and conduct research and analysis. This is a big mistake. and my words can be proven by the soldiers on the ground. Many of you probably were in Iraq or Afghanistan. I bet that 80% of the villages you freed were hostile and the natives helped the militants, If u check ur database, u'll realise that this aggressive behavior was due to a rogue missile that affected the villagers directly or indirectly, and the enemy propaganda exploited that fact.

Now to get back to your analysis, what u are failing to see out of the box is the following:
the lebanese internal cosial fabric, the nature of hizbullah on the ground (not on CNN) and the reason behind this entire infrastructure targeting. I'll summarize:

1- Hizbullah had about 16 years to prepare for this. 16 years of Syrian occupation for the lebanese soil and providing a political and military umbrella for Hizbullah to work freely and "flourish"
2- the nature of the fragile Syrian regime that always tend to proxy his own war to neighbouring country or else, the entire system will collapse since the country is ruled by a minority of "Alawiyyi" which are not neither Sunnii nor shiia. so the Iranians were allowed to supply Hizbullah with as much weaponry as he/it desire.
3- Lebanon was subject before 1991 to a 15 year civil war that was started by the PLO, who received a huge amount of funding from other arab countries to decimate the Lebanese Right wing. and they used that money to establish several underground tunnel network with fortified bunkers that are still available to this day.
4- those bunkers are still occupied by extreme palestinian wings like "ahmad jibril's" who is a Terrorist and wanted from the lebanese authorities (as to why he's still at large on lebanese soil i will explain later) and is collaborating with Hizbullah and syria by being the weapon transportation proxy for Hizbullah from syria to lebanon.
5- Hizbullah has long range missles 140Km-200Km that can hit deep into the israeli territory and can inflict heavy damage either with conventional or non-conventional warheads. and as u all know, these missile are large, cannot be transported in cars, pickups or donkeys (as i some people said), they need trucks. and these missiles are located in 3 bunkers known almost to any lebanese, syrian, israeli or US military personnel. those are the bunkers that i mentioned above, they span for miles underground.
6- the nature of the IAF air raids to the infrastructure was systematic, they have isolated the region around those three bunkers completely so that Hizbullah wont be able to move them outside a certain radius that can be monitored.
7- The IAF targeted and blocked all in and outs of lebanon, and its absurd to say that they did so in order not to allow hizbullah to be supplied by iran or syria. The lebanese coast is relatively small (200km) that can be monitored be 10 destroyers at most, not even a fish can go in or out into those ports. they even fired some bogus missiles on some of the ports situated in non-Shiite area, therefore supporters of a free government (since the IDF has been targeting Shiite base area mainly that support hizbullah and leaving the Sunnii, chirstian and Druz areas that are hostile to Hizbullah), so targeting those ports has 2 benefits: 1- no containers trucks leaving the ports, so less trucks circulating on the roads,2- pressure on the government to redeploy the lebanese army in the south.
8- the IAF targeted some gas stations situated in those de-infrastructured areas so as to freighten GasContainer trucks from delivering gas to those areas, therefore has also less trucks circulating and even decrease the mobility of Hizbullah vehicles that are sometimes firing from inside the freightened villages will soon run dry.
9- the south has been completely cut off, isolated (power, water, roads, medical supplies...) this is beneficial in both as a psychological and military factor: psychological: the shiite population that supports the Hizbullah and constitutes 25% of the lebanese population and that is preventing the lebanese government to complete its democratic transition from an occupied country to an un-occupied country, this population, in IDF calculations, will start hating hizbullah from initiating this war and clearly braking his pledge to the lebanese governement that he/it wont attack israel across the blue line and rather keep the conflict restricted to the 24km2 contested area called "Sheb'a farms" that the syrian regime has left as a political mine to the lebanese government intending to drag the lebanese population into a civil war with the Shiites headed by Nasrallah and his gang. The military factor is: Learning from the US mistake in Iraq, the IDF are making sure to empty the villages in the south due to harsh social conditions and move to the capital, so the IDF will have a freedom of targeting hizbullah and avoiding the population another "Kana Massacre" that Hizbullah is gonna try hard to lure them to another one in order to use it as a propaganda.
10- since Hizbullah has been given a total freedom of oepration for 16 years, he has prepared the entire battlefield (mainly the shiia areas) for such a conflict and constructed underground tunnels, bunkers, weapon cache...etc... all hidden from the normal eye, everything on the surface is very very normal. so a direct assault on his territories is a very very bad idea, unless the IDF has a Death Ray or something.
11- the 1 million shiites are controlled by nasrallah, but actually, he;s not the most popular leader amon shiite, there are 2 others more popular but the syrian occupation made sure to prosecute the other 2, and give him more political and military power, even more than the Leb government. and the "Beirut spring", the peaceful demonstrations that resulted in an end of the syrian occupations has produced a democratically elected government that was trying to disarm Hizbullah peacefully using conventional and non-conventional methods (i'll be glad to discuss them with u in another blog. www.lebanesebloggers.blogspot.com for ie) so please spare me the comments of why the leb government accepted hizbullah members in the government and parliament etc etc ... i can refute with facts and figures every similar comment just as i did on that blog to Israeli people who probably now know about the lebanese internal social and political structure more than anyone in the WEST because of our discusssions. So in order to break Nasrallah grip on the shiites, you have to disperse them since they are living in some sort of Ghettos (he can control them and intimidate them easily that way)

so as a conclusion, I believe the IAF and IDF have prepared the battelfield from a PsyOps operation to corner nasrallah, hunt him down, and chop his head off while preparing at thesmae time for the aftermath: weakening Nasrallah grip on shiites, weakening his political and military power for the government to be able to take over. its like treating a cancer with Chemotherapy at first to contain and reduce the tumour, then bombarding it with radiotherapy to KILL it.

Butthe problem arises, what is the cost of all this opeartion, on both sides of the border, and is the outcome assured or we might end up suffering in vain!???

oh i forgot to add to as a conclusion to point 9: less trucks circulating, less possible trucks used bby hizbullah to transfer those big rockets into firing range, the remaining trucks circulating can be monitored with intelligence on the ground that the IDF has plenty.

if u open the news, u will notice that IAF is targeting now every mocing truck in the country, Arab propaganda is using this by saying: The Zions dont want humanitarian aid to get to the remote and stranded areas.

Which we both know thats not true... we lebanese even know that, we know that they're targting those trucks out of fear of being loaded with missiles.

Robbie:
You're right and wrong. A buffer zone designed to keep missiles out of Israel purely by geographic depth is no longer viable. I doubt if that's Israel's goal though. By shaking Hezbullah's control over Southern Lebanon and empowering the Lebanese government and army, Israel can remove the preconditions that allow Hezbullah to operate with impunity. It's all about changing the dynamic of power in Lebanon so that factions less hostile (not favorable, but less hostile) to Israel are in a better position to assert control on the ground.

Saber:
Iran can only bury so much. At the end of the day, if Israel wanted to, they could hit Bushehr, and suddenly Iran has no source for more fissile material. Granted, that would probably release a radioactive Chernobyl cloud that would kill people all over the middle east, but it is a last resort.

Jad:
Great points, good to hear from soneone closer to the scene than us. In modern war like this, moral and pyschological aspects matter more than the physical aspects of war. A civilian death or two may not seem like a lot, but that sort of collateral damage has to be avoided at all costs. You're absolutely right. You're right on Hezbullah's preparation of the battlefield too. (Poole has done some interesting work on the subject, particularly about underground defenses and urban swarm warfare. Search Amazon for him and about a half dozen hits will come up. I'd recommend any of them.) I'm not sure if this will stop the IDF from commiting on the ground though, because first of all they want their captured buddies back which has got to be a huge motivator, and secondly I think the Israeli on the street wants something done, and wants as many Hezbullah guys dead as possible. Olmert has to react to that sort of sentiment.

People said the same sort of thing that you're saying before Jenin, that Israel would limit the fight to airpower and special forces, but in the end the IDF didn't want to risk civilian casualties in a prolonged bombing campaign. Even though the Palis had fortified and booby-trapped that city like crazy, infantry were used in large numbers then, and they will be in the next week or so. It's classic hammer and anvil. Israel's cut southern lebanon off from the rest, no communications, no transportation, no way in, no way out. I'd expect heliborne insertions a couple miles in, follow-up infantry advances, rinse and repeat. It's worked before, and it'll work again if it's done right.

A caveat though. There are a couple things that could deescalate the conflict in the next day or two to the point where Israel would no longer feel justified going in. If the captured soldiers are returned, if Nasrallah is killed, if Syria or Iran make a reasonable call for a cease fire, if the U.S. puts it foot down against an invasion, etc. A lot of things can change, I'm just theorizing based on what I see as the present circumstances.

Jad;

“For example, what the military always fail to take into consideration, that a colossal Battlespace preparation will surely entail some rogue missiles or shells hitting civilians, and thats the nature course of war. but what they fail to grasp is that thats what the extremists always try to abuse. Every ONE wrong missile on a civilian target, would be exploited and used to recruit 1000 angry militant.�
I would say it is not that we fail to think outside the box although it does look like it, the military is well aware of that tactic, but it is more a matter of being good at countering that tactic to which the military is not doing so good. But you can not let it stop you or paralyze you and so you fight through it. It is an accounted for cost that is worked very hard to be kept to a minimum, as you see we don’t carpet bomb anymore. We spend billions so that the bomb hits on the exact spot we want it to, just because of that terrorist tactic. By all means the PR/propaganda side of this issue is an area that is in need of major improvement.

“Butthe problem arises, what is the cost of all this opeartion, on both sides of the border, and is the outcome assured or we might end up suffering in vain!???�

Jad you have the answer, the cost will be lives, for all involved including the innocent, what higher price can be paid, the outcome is assured by the will of those refusing to return control of their lives to tyrants, dictators and terrorists, fighting for your freedom and never quiting, your efforts will not be in vain.
We have a saying you might already know, and it is� Freedom is not free�. It means that it can not be given to you, you must wrest it from the tyrants and dictators and be willing to pay any cost to achieve it and to keep it once achieved. And in achieving it, the cost will be high whether in infrastructure, finance, or lives, it is by no means cheap, we can but only help by assisting those who help themselves. And as you speak too, the Lebanese I think can see that.
Hence my optimism for a better Lebanon but it will by no means be easy to achieve. “OK now look at it this way, the Lebanese are/were not strong enough to remove Hezbollah alone but want to dearly to get more outside aid in, and they are trying to unite a fractured society, the IDF provided the muscle and offer back control to the Lebanese with back up assistance on call or more precisely the threat of, this gives the Lebanese Palis and Shia the opportunity to be more than Palis and Shia but also Lebanese as well,(kind of a keep Hezbollah (AKA Syria) out and we all can then keep the IDF out, line of thinking) this also allows the Palis and Shia to save face, which is very important. TRUE the thought is HIGHLY optimistic, but what a great political victory for Lebanese and the rest if it were to happen, it would also signal that the Arab side of the street has had enough and is now wanting to join the world with the rest of us, well at least those in Lebanon. The reason for optimism is the events of the last two years or so�.
Jad you only fail when you have quit trying, just because it didn’t work out the first try does not mean it wont work, just need find another way to make it work.

Saber 2

I will disagree- I think the Iranians want the IDF to get stuck back in the mud of South Lebanon, easy prey to guerilla tactics and takes the attention off of their nuke program. The IDF will infiltrate special forces (Shayetet, Sheish Sheish Taysha, Sheldag) but not move in with heavy armor. If I am right I want posting rights on OpFor :)

I agree with regard to motivation, I've already posted on that and I think you're right on. With regard to force allocation, I don't think the IDF will necessarily move in with heavy armor. I'd say it's more of a light infantry fight, with maybe some armor support, but not as a primary. Israel knows how vulnerable even Merks are to anti-tank rockets and mines in cluttered terrain. It can't just be a spec forces op though, too large scale for that, and the massive bombing campaign looks like it's designed to pen in Hezbullah for a killing blow. If they wanted to just take out leaders and the like, they wouldn't have made all this noise, which has already forced Nasrallah and co. underground.

"There are a couple things that could deescalate the conflict in the next day or two to the point where Israel would no longer feel justified going in"

I'm sure when IDF chief of staff planned this war it looked something like the ideas on this board. However Jad and William are right. The plans assume no diplomatic exit or PR disaster, and they never go through to the end.

In addition public opinion here in Israel is not that extreme. For example, getting rid of the strategic long-range missiles in addition to some buffer zone in the south will be considered a big enough win for Olmert. Even if HA survives an begins a process of re-armament and this war has to be repeated in 5 years. You take what you can have...

IMHO, big ground offensives to the Baka (and Syria) are possible only in the pure military sense. In south Lebanon, however, they will perhaps take place if diplomacy will be uncharacteristically slow

I agree and disagree. I think Israel's plan is more involved than just a reoccupation of southern lebanon. I think the idea now is to shake Hezbullah enough to allow the Lebanese government (read: Christians) to reassert control. Don't nitpick this on the basis that Party of God is represented in the Lebanese government, this is a governmental legitimacy issue not a partisan political one.

re-occupation? The ground forces will not stay more than a few weeks. Then it will be a mix of Lebanese troops and some international force. As ineffective as it is, it will have to do until the next round.

And as for the central government taking full control of the country. That's an ideal. I suspect one of the reasons for the war was the fear that HA is about to take full control :) right now a "shared" control will be OK, as long as the border area is HA free.

Earlier this evening, Simon Peres said that there would be no ground invasion into Lebanon. Now that could be disinformation, but I doubt Israel will launch any type of long-lasting ground assault. We may see small and limited incursions, but no prolonged and large advance. If it was going to happen, I think it would have already started.

It appears that Olhmert is content to use airpower assisted by special forces. While stronger and more prolonged, this reminds me of "Operation Desert Fox". The leadership seems willing to just kick the can down the road for now. I would never have expected that from Israel. From a political point of view, Israel looks weak.

Yair, I know that the Lebanese government will never have full control over their country. By degrading Hezbullah's capabilities though, Israel can shake things up enough to make a difference.

I agree with regard to Israel withdrawing after a few weeks and an international force stepping in. That's the way everyone seems to be moving. Blair practically said as much yesterday.

it is high time the arab islamic states gave up on attacking israel through proxies. if it were a european country or america the response would have been as severe.isreal should take steps to defend and possibly take warto the enemies.NEXT YEAR IN DAMSCUS AND TEHERAN

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Shimon Perez attributes the high collateral damage in Lebanon to Hezbollah keeping weapons in homes. No kidding! If the U. S. would give Hezbollah the same help as it gives Israel, Hezbollah could build decent bases to keep it weapons. Israel fighting Hezbollah is akin to cowboys fighting Indians. As Hezbollah has no air force, it may be more like a turkey shoot.

hellow all,
wait and watch what happens next. but also realiza that the win will be finally to the Hezb Allah's. Because What ever the Israels reality totally resembles like a cancer and tumor in the heart of arab destiny. Surelly if wolmer continue war than he has to be face defeat.

For an update on the current Lebanese crisis, you can view an interview I had with SkyNews on 7 August 2006 at:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/video/videoplayer/0,,31200-securityguest_070806_1130,00.html

Best,
Dr. Sergio Catignani
Lecturer
Department of War Studies
King's College London

Sign the Petition Demanding Reparations for Israel from the UN, Iran, Syria for the Hezbollah War.

http://www.petitiononline.com/IAUN1/petition.html

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