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Taliban II: Rise of the Africans
By John
This has the potential to be pretty bad news, folks.
NAIROBI, Kenya, June 5 — Islamic militias declared victory today over Somalia's traditional warlords in the battle for control of Mogadishu, quelling months of fierce fighting in the lawless capital but raising new questions about whether this regime, which American officials have accused of sheltering terrorists, will steer the country down an extremist path.
Another collapsed state that has the potential to turn into a big-time breeding ground. Somalia is starting to look alot like pre-Enduring Freedom Afghanistan. A few posts down, Charlie mentioned that:
this expands the Sharia sphere of influence, from Sudan to Somalia. The Palestinian Authority is up in the air on Sharia, and it is being fought full bore in Iraq and Afghanistan. We need a "rollback" strategy for this Dark-Age style of governance.
So what's the better Somalia scenario for the war on terrorism? A standing, functional, yet hostile government that *might* be pressured into playing ball with the West, or a collapsed state at controlled by factions of constantly-feuding warlords? Both settings are environments in which terrorists flourish.
Sudan, then Somalia. I sincerely hope Nigeria isn't next. I concur with Charlie, we need a rollback strategy for the dark continent's rising Islamist tide.
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Comments
One question...what does the Op-For crew think of Barnett's gap/core theory? Is the 'rollback' we need best described as fostering more connectivity with Africa to enable economic development?
rollback, like open season on sharia supporters? Like missles on places where they gather just to let them know we don't like them? Like a real war on terrorism and not just a select few?
Amen. Remember that Somalia has a long coastline, where the bulk of the population lives. Anything on a coast-- hell, anything reasonably far inland-- is fair game for an Expeditionary Strike Group. I'd say this is also a grand opportunity in the making.
Maj p
Just another reminder of what happens when you quit a job too soon and, like Iraq, how complicated things might get if you have to go back to fix the mess left behind.
Isn't like, Ethiopia between the Sudan and Somalia? I seem to remember that Eithopia is mostly Christians. (Somebody correct me if things have changed).
Anyway, Eagle1 has a good point, alhtough obviously MajP has a possibly more informed point of view.
I don't think Africa is really worth the bones of a single US grenadier, (to paraphrase Bismark), and you can always blockade the coast if it comes to that.
don't count Eagle1 out Eric, he's a retired Navy captain who covers Somalia extensively at his blog, Eagle Speak.
Not to discount our own beloved Major of course, just sayin'.....
Eric Blair? How Orwellian...
FYI: Ethiopia is about 50% Muslim.
Somalia is not just Mogudishu. Somaliland and Puntaland are already semi autonomous sections which could easily break away from greater Somalia.
It seems somehow unfair to dismiss all of Africa out of hand, though.
And, thanks for the kind words, John.
Friend Eric might enjoy this post which puts some context to the Somalia situation.
Multiply Somalia by 10 or 100, depending on the number of countries you think the US has pissed off since frittering away the good will brought by 9/11. I've been in eastern Africa, and on a 1-1 basis, the Muslim population of Kenya and Somalia is sympathetic to Americans, but highly antagonistic to American foreign policy.
Can BushCo get a clue? If not, lets buy them a clue.
Marmoset, focus buddy. Let's keep on topic. If you start tying in every post we do to your dislike of the President, you come off as a spammer.
And with "FREE ROLEX WATCHES!!" hitting just about every post on Op For, we really, really don't need anymore spammers.
Eagle1 and Eric B: you're right, it ain't worth the bones of any sort of grenadier. Blockade? I was thinking more along the lines of BOMBARDMENT. A good old-fashioned steam-the-coast-and-empty-the-magazines naval gunfire festival. "Heavy-hitter this is Evil Clown, FIRE MISSION!!"
Marmoset: PUH-LEEZ. The population of Somalia was pissed off before 9/11. They were born pissed, they live pissed off, and they'll die pissed off. The only times they're not pissed off is when they're sleeping, or possibly when they're all high on qat. 1 on 1 or altogether, they are the least deserving of any nation on the earth to receive the "no better friend" part of the equation, and the most deserving of getting a good dose of the latter half.
Somalia: DON'T GET ME STARTED.
Maj P
OK, I'll get ya started on Somalia. Bush I gets us involved while he's a lame duck. Clinton's first secdef botches the job by trying to keep it low profile. We get chased out.
Recently, we've been supporting financially (to the tune of $100,000 per month) some of the same war-lords that were fighting our best/brightest in the early 90's. Now it seems that an Islamic fundamentalist government has secured control, at least in Mogadishu. US gov't is now making nice with this new gov't that is the antithesis of what we are purportedly "spreading" in Iraq and Afghanistan (but not Saudi, Pakistan, Jordan or Egypt).
What's not to like?
Somalia has also been a place of Tribal warfare... since 16th century.. keep in mind that is not all about religion. is also about out side powers, such as Eithopia, Eiretaria who are actually flaming the fire here.. because their own intrest in Somalia. That is the real problem here.
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SOMALIA: DON'T GET ME STARTED.
http://rule308.blogspot.com/2006/06/dog-bites-man-somalia-descends-into.html
Maj P