« Previous · Home · Next »

Chicom Flatop?

By John

Michael Goldfarb at the Weekly Standard reports:

I'd still contend that, as Brookes put it, Chinese carriers would be "nuthin’ but big, fat gray targets," but that doesn't change the fact that an aircraft carrier would boost Beijing's ability to project "soft power." And deploying a Nimitz-sized nuclear carrier would, like the ASAT test, show that China is to be considered a military superpower.

nukecarrier.jpg



Agreed on all points. There seems to be some dispute over whether or not the report is credible. Peter Brooks at Heritage thinks it is:
Recent military news out of China includes double trouble. First, Beijing announced a jaw-dropping 18 percent jump in its defense budget - 5 percentage points more than last year's alarming rise -at the yearly meeting of the National People's Congress.

On top of that came news from an unidentified Chinese admiral via a Hong Kong newspaper that China is pretty far along in aircraft-carrier R&D - and could have one in the water by 2010.

This isn't good news.

The existence of a Chinese "flattop" program has long been rumored. Sure, some military experts scoff at the idea - often pointing out that carriers don't fit with China's military doctrine of "asymmetry."

That is, China's military buildup has focused on developing capabilities that are best suited to take advantage of an opponent's weaknesses - rather than one of trying to counter its obvious strengths.

I've always chuckled at references to China's "asymmetrical" military doctrine. We're the boys with the force-multiplying toys, and China's the one with the big honking Army. Aren't we the asymmetrical ones?

But that's aside the point. This new nuke carrier sounds like a paper tiger to me. It looks good, it sounds good, but until the Chicoms actually put the thing to sea and master the craft of carrier flight ops (you know, the one we've been working on for 60+ years?) this sucker is just going to be a "big fat grey target."

March 28, 2007 05:53 AM    Strategery ~ Tech

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://op-for.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/853

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Chicom Flatop?:

» heladiva from heladiva
It is wearisome attempting to total the time we\'ve consumed looking for buddist info. [Read More]

Comments

china's standing army is not designed to counter the u.s. - as the changes in its military doctrine of the past 10 years surely are - it's designed to counter the country's own population.

china's emphasis on space technology, and specifically those which take advantage of a well-known u.s. dependence on satellites, is what makes china's military "asymmetrical." meanwhile, china is also launching cyber-warfare attacks on nearly every important US government agency every second of every day - another aspect of its defense program that is considered asymmetric.

john tk   ·  March 28, 2007 07:26 AM

oops, btw i am NOT the john tk of heritage foundation, should anyone make that connection.

john tk   ·  March 28, 2007 07:36 AM

lol, thanks for clarifying John.

I dunno, I've heard the space argument beat into the ground. Cyberwar is a good example.

They really got hung up on the Rumsfeld transformation concept recently. Interesting, since that is turning out to be a bit of a failure in Iraq.

Guess it still works state v. state, if you've got our level of military tech.

John   ·  March 28, 2007 08:01 AM

Off subject but this recent US move towards legalizing counter-cyber warfare from our side is interesting. The article concentrates on the Jihadi's being countered but the 800lb gorilla in any Cyber battle field is China.

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20070328/1a_lede28.art.htm

I cannot not imagine the magnitude of the civil liberties, legality, freedom speech, blah blah blah debate this opening publicly of Pandora’s box will reveal but either way it is a necessary skill set for the future that will be needed to counter what many others from Jihadi's to loan wolfs to China are already doing.

C-Low   ·  March 28, 2007 10:52 AM

To quote AMD Hayward, "I'm sick and tired of hearing about the threat. Let US be the threat!"

Mike M.   ·  March 28, 2007 12:13 PM

I thought China's carrier was old news. They bought this thing off the Soviets in their waning days back in the early-90's. I think it sat in drydock somewhere for awhile while they figured out how to transfer it... hell, I once read an article that China was going to turn it into an amusement park. I guess they're finally dusting it off (or chipping the rust off rather) and trying to put it to sea. Good luck to them.

The Chinese expressed a keen interest in our naval aviation capabilities and operations in the mid-90's. Bullnav can probably provide more insight, but if I'm not mistaken, they even sent out several Chinese naval delegations to observe flight operations on several of our carriers.

The long and short of it is this... it took us the better part of 50 years (yes, a half century) to figure out carrier operations without killing ourselves (and it cost the lives of many fine naval aviators doing so). We still remain, to this day, the only Navy in the world that conducts carrier flight ops at night. And it's still dangerous. We still have accidents.

How long do you think it'll take the Chinese?

I think this one carrier will be meant more to counter our "interference" in China's internal problems (read Taiwan) on the once every five years or so someone decides to make it a crisis. Hell, aren't we due another Taiwan crisis any day now?

Joel   ·  March 28, 2007 12:51 PM

I was always under the assumption that Russia agree to sell China the carrier on the term that it will not be used operationally, that's why the amusement park cover story. I was thinking they will be using it as a testing platform to learn about how to build an operational carrier.

Yibin   ·  March 28, 2007 04:43 PM

Oh, good. Target practice for US submarines. I'll give it three days survival in any way in which it puts to sea, from underway to on the bottom. If we have warning before she leaves and have some sub on station, I give it less than 24 hrs. Those are good odds.

Subsunk

Subsunk   ·  March 28, 2007 05:02 PM

subsunk....living up to his blogging handle :)

John   ·  March 28, 2007 07:44 PM

Wow, I guess I'm the only one who thinks this might be the real deal. I agree that the Chinese carrier would have a lifespan of seconds in a fight with the US, but I sincerely doubt that's the intent. This is all about projection and prestige. The articles already addressed the prestige point. But what I think this is intended to be is a military extension of their current foreign policy. Is the IKE battlegroup gonna sweat if they see the red carrier coming at them? Probably not. But what about Sudan, or Venezuela. If the chinese use their carrier the way we use ours, it will significantly increase their prestige. Its long be argued that the Chinese military only threatens targets within a 7 day march, making fun of their massed infantry approach. A succesful carrier group would change that. It can also let them obstruct us. Right now, China can only get involved verbally in confrontations outside of their immediate neighborhood. How much more stressful would this weeks carrier exercises have been if a third carrier had been added to the gulf, a chinese carrier? That will significantly change the rules of the game. The first question asked of the SecDef in any crisis is supposedly "Where's the nearest carrier?" In 10 years, the second quewstion might be "Where's the Chinese carrier?" Again, I think it reflects minimal military threat to the US or US allies because the Chinese have not shown themselves to have the military, naval, or aviation tradition necessary to handle a modern surface-warfare/naval-aviation program. But I think its going to really change the way politics are played.

Mike S   ·  March 29, 2007 02:55 PM

Post a comment

Potential comment conditions listed here. Oh, and you may use basic HTML for formatting.





Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)


Please enter the security code you see here