Was it a Suitcase Nuke? Was it TNT?

Is there any chance the NK's may have gotten assistance from Pak's or Chinese tech to make a small nuke they could put on a short range missile? In the cramped quarters of the Korean penninsula a small "tactical" nuke might be of more use than a larger weapon and much, much scarier.

Is there any chance the NK's may have gotten assistance from Pak's or Chinese tech to make a small nuke they could put on a short range missile? In the cramped quarters of the Korean penninsula a small "tactical" nuke might be of more use than a larger weapon and much, much scarier.

Smart take, John. Question, though. I've always, always believed that the Chicoms were in it from the beginning, on the ground floor, using the Norks as a catspaw. What's the chance the Chinese are playing a really long game to drive us from the region using NK to do the job?

Why would the Chinese want their most unpredictable neighbor to have a deliverable nuclear capability? Remember, Beijing is a heck of a lot closer to Pyongyang than LA is. It is not in China's interest to have a nuclear North Korea so long as North Korea is not controllable.

I heard a rumor that the weapon was upwards of 10,000 lbs itself; negating the Norks chance of delivering it by any platform short of a UPS truck. Has anybody heard of anything substantiating this? This was from a pretty reliable source, but I want a second before I accept it.

I heard a rumor that the weapon was upwards of 10,000 lbs itself; negating the Norks chance of delivering it by any platform short of a UPS truck. Has anybody heard of anything substantiating this? This was from a pretty reliable source, but I want a second before I accept it.

Excellent point on the TNT hypothesis.
As for "Islamists goal is chaos. The North's goal is Seoul ", if one of the North's goals is selling whatever technology they develop to willing buyers, (they sure need the money) even a small nuke would find a market. Just my opinion, but a lot of the Norks' posturing in the past couple years seems like advertising. "Crazy Kim's missiles and WMD's. I'm CRAAAZY!"

Excellent point on the TNT hypothesis.
As for "Islamists goal is chaos. The North's goal is Seoul ", if one of the North's goals is selling whatever technology they develop to willing buyers, (they sure need the money) even a small nuke would find a market. Just my opinion, but a lot of the Norks' posturing in the past couple years seems like advertising. "Crazy Kim's missiles and WMD's. I'm CRAAAZY!"

I got a off the wall pure guestimation. Here it is here we go.

Maybe our CIA is not so incompetent as they put off. Maybe AQ Kahn did give nuke tech that eventually was going to get out anyway especially with thousands of X-Russian nuke scientist out of work up for auction. But maybe that AQ Kahn tech was purposley flawed. AQ Kahn/Pakistan got what they wanted Nork missile tech CIA/US got what we wanted flawed Nork nukes.

Who knows could just be Nork incompetence.

Either way I still don't think it's worth a war with the Norks. The Norks can only march one direction South and between S Korea, Japan, Tiawan, Australia, and of course US that is unlikley.

I do think the next step is very heavy monitoring and boarding of even suspected Nork ships Planes. Along with a no uncertian (I would go openly public myself) terms instruction to China that the Norks are thier pitbull and they are responsible for it. In short if the Norks proliferate or let their uranium end up in a mushroom cloud in the US or our allies the Norks AND China will suffer the retribution. I think I would also let the Chinese understand we got our own pitbull Tiawan who we could loosen the choker chain on ALOT.

Our main problem still today is Iran. With Iraq already down Iran is the rogue with the potential to really get out of control if not Checked.

When we get done picking Sadr's Mehdi boys apart say Febuary it will be all eyes on Iran.

I got a off the wall pure guestimation. Here it is here we go.

Maybe our CIA is not so incompetent as they put off. Maybe AQ Kahn did give nuke tech that eventually was going to get out anyway especially with thousands of X-Russian nuke scientist out of work up for auction. But maybe that AQ Kahn tech was purposley flawed. AQ Kahn/Pakistan got what they wanted Nork missile tech CIA/US got what we wanted flawed Nork nukes.

Who knows could just be Nork incompetence.

Either way I still don't think it's worth a war with the Norks. The Norks can only march one direction South and between S Korea, Japan, Tiawan, Australia, and of course US that is unlikley.

I do think the next step is very heavy monitoring and boarding of even suspected Nork ships Planes. Along with a no uncertian (I would go openly public myself) terms instruction to China that the Norks are thier pitbull and they are responsible for it. In short if the Norks proliferate or let their uranium end up in a mushroom cloud in the US or our allies the Norks AND China will suffer the retribution. I think I would also let the Chinese understand we got our own pitbull Tiawan who we could loosen the choker chain on ALOT.

Our main problem still today is Iran. With Iraq already down Iran is the rogue with the potential to really get out of control if not Checked.

When we get done picking Sadr's Mehdi boys apart say end of winter it will be all eyes on Iran.

Sorry for the double post it was just crawling so I double clicked and it went through but I guess twice wierd.

lot of good comments, I'll focus on Jim "where in Virginia?"

Norks want a sizable nuclear aresenal, and weapons grade fissible material is NOT easy to come by. They are buyers, not sellers.

If they want big inventory, they'll become buyers and sellers; they make it up on volume. Ship borne sales to al-Qaeda makes the most sense. al-Qaeda buys them and stores them on ships, taking delivery on a regular basis, cash and carry. al-Qaeda keeps the inventory moving in normal commerce. When the first purchase nears its boom-by-date, send the whole fleet to assorted ports, Long Beach, New Orleans, New York, London, Rotterdam, Marsailles, Genoa. TOT detonation.

I don't know guys; would that be the same sat image technology that eyeballed all of those Implements of Destruction in Iraq? How about the truck convoy into Syria?

I don't know guys; would that be the same sat image technology that eyeballed all of those Implements of Destruction in Iraq? How about the truck convoy into Syria?

The DPRK is unilkey to act in any manner to provike the South. A better analysis is that they seek to maintain their status to deter China and prop up the collapsing regime of Kim Jong Il. We are not about to reveal the capability of our NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) assets to the press, I hope. I suspect the test actually failed. The detonation charge failed to provide sufficiently balanced energy to allow the chain reaction to occur. It is likely that the North Koreans have a very contaminated mineshaft.

Look for another test in 30-60 days. They know that in a conflict with the South they would be eliminated, but without this bargaining chip, they risk becoming yet another vassal of the PRC.

The DPRK is unilkey to act in any manner to provike the South. A better analysis is that they seek to maintain their status to deter China and prop up the collapsing regime of Kim Jong Il. We are not about to reveal the capability of our NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) assets to the press, I hope. I suspect the test actually failed. The detonation charge failed to provide sufficiently balanced energy to allow the chain reaction to occur. It is likely that the North Koreans have a very contaminated mineshaft.

Look for another test in 30-60 days. They know that in a conflict with the South they would be eliminated, but without this bargaining chip, they risk becoming yet another vassal of the PRC.

I don't know guys; would that be the same sat image technology that eyeballed all of those Implements of Destruction in Iraq? How about the truck convoy into Syria?

Sorry but since the North Koreans have already been proven to be collaborating with Iran and since Iran is the primary sponsor of terror in the world today. Suitcase nukes fit perfectly into this scenario. Furthermore the NKO's would profit if some Islamic fanatic detonated a weapon in NYC since the resulting chaos would probably give them a bye to invade South Korea. If you don't believe this to be possible consider this scenario.

One nuke goes off in NYC one hour later another goes off in San Diego...Al Jazeera broadcasts a communique from the Instigators demanding that the US withdraw from the ME and NKO or else other weapons will detonate. They give a 24 hour deadline. At 24 hours plus 1 second another weapon goes off in Mobile.

Exactly who do we retaliate against and who thinks we will.

Sorry but since the North Koreans have already been proven to be collaborating with Iran and since Iran is the primary sponsor of terror in the world today. Suitcase nukes fit perfectly into this scenario. Furthermore the NKO's would profit if some Islamic fanatic detonated a weapon in NYC since the resulting chaos would probably give them a bye to invade South Korea. If you don't believe this to be possible consider this scenario.

One nuke goes off in NYC one hour later another goes off in San Diego...Al Jazeera broadcasts a communique from the Instigators demanding that the US withdraw from the ME and NKO or else other weapons will detonate. They give a 24 hour deadline. At 24 hours plus 1 second another weapon goes off in Mobile.

Exactly who do we retaliate against and who thinks we will.

Pierre, I don't want to play down the Iranian threat, but what you described just isn't plausible.

The technology involved in shrinking a bomb to suitcase size is considerable. So is the tech involved in securing weapons grade plutonium.

The Norks may grin at a bomb being detonated in San Diego, but they're not going to part with the nuclear tech that they have worked decades for simply to see the Americans "hurt." It achieves no strategic objective on the North's part, and it puts Kim Jong Il in our nuclear crosshairs.

They have their own plans, and their nuclear resources are simply too scarce to share with the other kids.

What happens one hour later? Iran gets hit with 20 hydrogen warheads and north Korea gets at least ten! The result is both countries get turned into glass and the president address the rest of the world by asking on tv, "Any one else want the same?"

What happens one hour later? Iran gets hit with 20 hydrogen warheads and north Korea gets at least ten! The result is both countries get turned into glass and the president address the rest of the world by asking on tv, "Any one else want the same?"

RE: "since Iran is the primary sponsor of terror in the world today"

What garbage. This is why it's damm near impossible to have any serious analysis today; puke from Fox News.

If Iran is the 'primary' sponsor of terrorism then I assume you can point out for me which of these terrorist attacks in 2005 Iran sponsored:

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THAILAND
* January 7: Explosion at a railroad crossing -no casualties. 1 Buddhist shot dead in southern Thailand.
* January 16: 1 person dead, over 50 others injured in an explosion in a commercial area in southern Thailand.
* February 17: 7 people dead, 40 injured by a car bomb outside a hotel in southern Thailand.
* March 6: A Buddhist monk was killed by gunmen in southern Thailand.
* March 7: 2 policemen and 3 unknown attackers were killed in a shootout with 5 gunmen disguised as veiled Muslim women at a police station in southern Thailand.
* March 15: 1 policeman was killed, 3 injured by bomb in southern Thailand.
* March 19: 15 people, 10 of them policemen, injured in two explosions. One of the bombs was detonated via a cellphone.
* March 26: 1 Buddhist dead, 2 injured, in two attacks by gunmen in southern Thailand.
* March 27: Two bombs used to stop an armoured train patrolling in southern Thailand, terrorists then fired on the policemen on the train. Approximately 20 policemen and some other passengers were wounded.
* April 3: 2005 Songkhla bombings: 2 people killed, 54 injured, by three explosions in Hat Yai - one at the airport, one at a hotel, and another at a department store.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN IRAN
* June 12: Bombs explode in the Iranian cities of Ahvaz and Tehran, leaving 10 dead and 80 wounded days before the Iranian presidential election.
* October 15: Two bombs exploded at a shopping mall in Ahvaz, Khuzestan in Iran. Six people died and over 100 were injured.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN INDIA
* July 5: 2005 Terrorist attack on Ayodhya - Six terrorists belonging to Lashkar-e-Toiba storm the Ayodhya Ram Janmbhomi complex in India. Before the terrorists could reach the main disputed site, they were shot down by Indian security forces. One devotee and two policemen were injured.
* July 28: Jaunpur train bombing: 13 are killed when militants detonate a bomb on a commuter train in India
* October 29: Multiple bomb blasts hit markets in Delhi, India, leaving at least 61 dead and more than 200 injured.
* December 28: Two or more unidentified gunmen open fire at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India, killing a retired professor of mathematics and wounding four others.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN U.K.
* July 7: London bombings - Bombs explode on one double-decker bus and three London Underground trains, killing 56 people and injuring over 700, occurring on the first day of the 31st G8 Conference. The attacks are believed by many to be the first suicide bombings in Western Europe.
* July 21: Attempted London bombings - Small explosions in three London Underground stations and one double-decker bus. This was pronounced as a "major incident" rather than an attack, and only minor injuries were reported. These 4 bombs were designed to cause as much damage as the 7 July 2005 London bombings, but the explosives had deteriorated and failed to detonate.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN EGYPT
* July 23: Sharm el-Sheikh bombings - Car bombs explode at tourist sites in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, killing at least 88 and wounding more than 100.
* April: April 2005 terrorist attacks in Cairo - On April 7 a suicide bomber blows himself up in Cairo's Khan al Khalili market, killing three foreign tourists and wounding 17 others. In two further attacks on April 30, suspected accomplices detonate a bomb and spray a tourist coach with gunfire.

2005 - OTHER TERRORISTS ATTACKS
* Bangladesh August 17: 17 August 2005 Bangladesh bombings: Around 100 homemade bombs explode in 58 different locations in Bangladesh, killing two and wounding 100.
* Indonesia October 1: A series of explosions occurs in resort areas of Jimabaran Beach and Kuta in Bali, Indonesia.
* Russia October 13: A large group of Chechen rebels launched coordinated attacks on Russian federal buildings, local police stations, and the airport in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria. At least 137 people, including 92 rebels, were killed.
* Jordan November 9: Three explosions at hotels in Amman, Jordan, leave at least 60 dead and 120 wounded.
* Qatar March 19: Car bomb attack on theatre in Doha, Qatar, kills one Briton and wounds 12 others.
* Burma May 7: Multiple bomb explosions across Myanmar's capital Yangon kill 19 and injures 160.

===================

RE: "since Iran is the primary sponsor of terror in the world today"

What garbage. This is why it's damm near impossible to have any serious analysis today; puke from Fox News.

If Iran is the 'primary' sponsor of terrorism then I assume you can point out Iran's sponsorship of these terrorist attacks:

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THAILAND
* January 7: Explosion at a railroad crossing -no casualties. 1 Buddhist shot dead in southern Thailand.
* January 16: 1 person dead, over 50 others injured in an explosion in a commercial area in southern Thailand.
* February 17: 7 people dead, 40 injured by a car bomb outside a hotel in southern Thailand.
* March 6: A Buddhist monk was killed by gunmen in southern Thailand.
* March 7: 2 policemen and 3 unknown attackers were killed in a shootout with 5 gunmen disguised as veiled Muslim women at a police station in southern Thailand.
* March 15: 1 policeman was killed, 3 injured by bomb in southern Thailand.
* March 19: 15 people, 10 of them policemen, injured in two explosions. One of the bombs was detonated via a cellphone.
* March 26: 1 Buddhist dead, 2 injured, in two attacks by gunmen in southern Thailand.
* March 27: Two bombs used to stop an armoured train patrolling in southern Thailand, terrorists then fired on the policemen on the train. Approximately 20 policemen and some other passengers were wounded.
* April 3: 2005 Songkhla bombings: 2 people killed, 54 injured, by three explosions in Hat Yai - one at the airport, one at a hotel, and another at a department store.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN IRAN
* June 12: Bombs explode in the Iranian cities of Ahvaz and Tehran, leaving 10 dead and 80 wounded days before the Iranian presidential election.
* October 15: Two bombs exploded at a shopping mall in Ahvaz, Khuzestan in Iran. Six people died and over 100 were injured.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN INDIA
* July 5: 2005 Terrorist attack on Ayodhya - Six terrorists belonging to Lashkar-e-Toiba storm the Ayodhya Ram Janmbhomi complex in India. Before the terrorists could reach the main disputed site, they were shot down by Indian security forces. One devotee and two policemen were injured.
* July 28: Jaunpur train bombing: 13 are killed when militants detonate a bomb on a commuter train in India
* October 29: Multiple bomb blasts hit markets in Delhi, India, leaving at least 61 dead and more than 200 injured.
* December 28: Two or more unidentified gunmen open fire at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India, killing a retired professor of mathematics and wounding four others.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN U.K.
* July 7: London bombings - Bombs explode on one double-decker bus and three London Underground trains, killing 56 people and injuring over 700, occurring on the first day of the 31st G8 Conference. The attacks are believed by many to be the first suicide bombings in Western Europe.
* July 21: Attempted London bombings - Small explosions in three London Underground stations and one double-decker bus. This was pronounced as a "major incident" rather than an attack, and only minor injuries were reported. These 4 bombs were designed to cause as much damage as the 7 July 2005 London bombings, but the explosives had deteriorated and failed to detonate.

2005 - TERRORIST ATTACKS IN EGYPT
* July 23: Sharm el-Sheikh bombings - Car bombs explode at tourist sites in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, killing at least 88 and wounding more than 100.
* April: April 2005 terrorist attacks in Cairo - On April 7 a suicide bomber blows himself up in Cairo's Khan al Khalili market, killing three foreign tourists and wounding 17 others. In two further attacks on April 30, suspected accomplices detonate a bomb and spray a tourist coach with gunfire.

2005 - OTHER TERRORISTS ATTACKS
* Bangladesh August 17: 17 August 2005 Bangladesh bombings: Around 100 homemade bombs explode in 58 different locations in Bangladesh, killing two and wounding 100.
* Indonesia October 1: A series of explosions occurs in resort areas of Jimabaran Beach and Kuta in Bali, Indonesia.
* Russia October 13: A large group of Chechen rebels launched coordinated attacks on Russian federal buildings, local police stations, and the airport in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria. At least 137 people, including 92 rebels, were killed.
* Jordan November 9: Three explosions at hotels in Amman, Jordan, leave at least 60 dead and 120 wounded.
* Qatar March 19: Car bomb attack on theatre in Doha, Qatar, kills one Briton and wounds 12 others.
* Burma May 7: Multiple bomb explosions across Myanmar's capital Yangon kill 19 and injures 160.

===================

Sgt. York you seem to have forgotten Hamas and Hizb'allah among other ME charmers.

Sgt. York your ineptitude in namecalling is equaled only by your ignorance. Ask the Marines who were recently blown up inside of their armored vehicles in Iraq by shaped charges supplied by Iran how innocent the Iranians are. Ask the Israelis who have been getting blown up by Hezballah for some time. You may be excused for not knowing about the worst terror attack suffered by the United States prior to 9/11 by your age, probably happened before you were born. But ask the Marines who pulled their buddies out of the rubble in Lebanon in 1983 what they think of Iran not being the center of terror. Ask the State Department.

Fox News...you might stand watching a bit more. But you are probably one of those wizards who declare that the root of all islamic terror rises out of the ass of Wahabism, as if they are the root of all Islamic terror.

Regarding the rational polite response to my question.

Yes I believe it is wishful thinking to believe that any US President will ever call down a nuclear strike after being hit by a terrorist detonation in any city. We might wish he would but he wouldn't. Just consider how tame our response was to the cold blooded murder of 3,000 of our citizens. Yea we invaded Afghanistan but we apologized the whole time. And we did it with a minimal footprint as to not offend anyone...the smoke was still rising from NYC and we were apologizing. And don't lets not get started on Iraq...that was a absolutely justified war that was done on the cheap. For more proof of our unwillingness to defend ourselves just consider that we are spending as a percentage of our GDP less than Clinton did in 6 of his years in office. And he had the excuse of not having a war. Our Defense Spending is at 3.7% of GDP...it was over 4 for most of Clintons stay in office and he wasn't putting soldiers out into distant lands with impossible goals on the cheap.

We do not have the willpower to drop 20 megaton weapons on anyone.

Regarding Nko selling the weapons to terrorists they probably got the money to proceed with the program from Iran and others. They owe them.

Pierre, I hear you on the loss of will by the American people, it troubles me too.

But all evidence indicates that the Norks enriched the stuff themselves, and received the plans from AQ Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist. I just don't see Iran figuring as prominently in this boondoggle as you estimate.

speculation could be put aside shortly, by two facets. 1) NORK sets off another one, that works. 2) (based on radiation reading comparisons to domestic detonations (above and subterranean) is there a radiation signature over NORK?

re: China, lets not forget that historically China has been THE dominant world power. not for year, decades- but centuries. Put aside the past 60+ yrs of seclusion, and we see China, with the treasonous assistance of EVERY major American CEO, is reclaiming its place as global #1.

The last thing China wants is to shut off its financing- the US idiots that buy all the WalMart goods with a "made in China" stamp! China needs the US, at least for another decade, until it becomes back integrated sufficiently on raw materials and energy (3 gorges dam) to feed its own masses.

Also, China does NOT want radioactive fallout over its country.

NORK wants attention. It needs Money. Lets see if Bush has a clue on how to handle this- hopefully he has better advisors than the jamokes who told him "Iraq will be a quick win, and the Iraqis will love us".

Thanks John. But I guess that I still think it is easier to smuggle a weapon inside of a container than it is to make one small enough to put on top of an unreliable missile. He launches at Los Angeles he may or may not hit it...

It is a lot sneakier too since in this day and age without the ballastic signature of the missiles flight, pinning the explosion down to any one country would be a lot more difficult.

And NKorea and China for that matter have been deeply involved in selling weapons to Iran. Remember the C-802 that was fired by Iran's proxies Hezb'Allah.

At this moment in time we are in the way of an awful lot of countries who might not take long walks together in the warm rain but who regardless would love to see us put out of their misery.

A scenario like what I mentioned up above would effectively take us out of the picture. I would like to think otherwise but lately I have become a pessimist. No doubt it is charming to think of us as the stout Londoners braving thousands of deaths and standing resolutely in our cities but I believe that upon the second explosion our cities would be ghost towns as no one would want to see if their city was next.

Suitcase nukes are where the action is these days. Plausible denialbility, ultimate terror inducing since absolute blame cannot be laid at the feet of any country. Indeed when you think about it why would North Korea want to threaten to shoot a weapon at anyone? The minute a missile flies it will be impossible even for a Democrat not to declare war upon NKorea, unless of course Jimmy Carter is in power.

This is different from the suitcase scenario because blame can be laid at Kim Il Crazy right from the start. Plausible denialbility...

but Pierre, for Kim Jong Il the POINT is to let everyone know about it. He doesn't want to try and nuke a US city without a delivery system, that would be the end of North Korea as we know it.

He wants to HAVE the nukes + missiles so that he can THREATEN the US, and thus force us into 1v1 negotiations.

Jihadis want destruction without a real endstate, with Kim Jong Il it is precisely the opposite.

clarification: if he nuked us with a missile OR asymmetrically, it would be the end of Korea as we know it.

As SMASH sez, "nukes are for having, not for using." This applies here.

Thank you for the opportunity to comment John.

I see your point and yes it does make sense.

Mine is a stretch no doubt...I just cannot get away from the idea that perhaps our enemies don't feel a need to claim credit for large explosions in our cities. Perhaps to them the destruction of civil order is enough to achieve their aims. But maybe I am simply too paranoid.

Thank you for the opportunity to comment John.

I see your point and yes it does make sense.

Mine is a stretch no doubt...I just cannot get away from the idea that perhaps our enemies don't feel a need to claim credit for large explosions in our cities. Perhaps to them the destruction of civil order is enough to achieve their aims. But maybe I am simply too paranoid.

Very interesting situation, it also takes on a new meaning with the recent agreement. Take the booty when you can.

absurd thought -
God of the Universe thinks
keep building your bombs

always threaten the world
get them to send you money
.