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New Nork Nuke?
By John
North Korea says it will stage nuke test (AP) --
SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea said Tuesday it will conduct a nuclear test in the face of what it claimed was "the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war," ratcheting up tensions amid international pressure to return to negotiations on its atomic program.
The United States warned a North Korean nuclear test "would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability." South Korea raised its security level, and Japan promised a severe response if the threat was carried out.The statement from Pyongyang gave no precise date for a test, but the prospect that North Korea could soon take a major step forward in its nuclear weapons development triggered alarm and condemnation in foreign capitals, including Russia and the European Union.
We've figured that North Korea has had these things for a few years now, largely in part thanks to -trying my best to be apolitical here- the Clinton Administration's pseudo Sunshine Policy during the 90s. You can insert a "don't feed the crocodile" cliche if you want, since I can't think of a better way to describe giving a hostile, dictatorial regime that wants to join "the club" two nuclear reactors.
Hopefully the test goes as well as North Korea's 7 dud barrage that was launched on the 4th of July this year. But if their nuke test is successful, try to remember that building a nuke is one thing, building one small enough to be mated to a derivery delivery system that ACTUALLY WORKS is another matter altogether.
Here's my question. Does a successful test scare Japan into building an arsenal of their own?
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Comments
ha Joel, I'm assuming you caught the "derivery" strikethrough?
My fantasy football team is called "I'm So Ronrey"
That's actually a valid concern, Sir. One of the points of the six party talks is to include Japan, so that she does not go nuclear herself and start a new East Asian arms race.
I was stationed in Japan back during the Cold War and I can tell you that this issue came up back then. When North Korea seized our spy ship USS Peublo Japan got spooked. At the same time the Sovs were all but laying claim to the Sea of Japan which spooked the Japs even further. We had to all but assure their government that Japan was as under our nuclear umbrella as Pearl Harbor and Anchorage. We knew the Jpanese had the technology to build a bomb if they wanted even back then.
Excuse me guys, but why is Japan having nuclear weapons such a bad idea. They are one of our best allies and we are even considering selling them F-22 Raptors which is unheard of.
Forgive me for saying so, but if a strong Japan can help keep this batshit crazy dumbass Kim Jong Il in line then perhaps we should consider selling them some of our old nukes from decommed SSBNs and Peacekeeper missiles.
@ The Dude
North Korea isn't the problem with a nuclear Japan. It's China. You can bet Beijing would raise hell if we started selling nuclear weapons to Japan, and it would certainly rachet up the tensions in an area that doesn't need it.
I think our long-standing line that "North Korea will cease to exist as a country if it uses nuclear weapons against its neighbors" is probably enough of a nuclear deterrent. No need to move the weapons nominally closer AND upset the rest of the region.
What about worries of a NK conventional push south? Can't it achieve more, more rapidly, and keep it's acquisition without incuring nuke response wrath? If it has nukes to enforce a 'keep out of our affairs' stance, then that seems more likely than them throwing away a nuke for nothing.
F**k you, Hans Brix... do you have any idea how f**king busy I am??!!
Sorry, couldn't resist any longer.
Japanese or Koreans, via trade or ballistic barrage, nuclear proliferation is a bad idea.
I'd sell just about any weapon system to the Japanese, except kitchen sinks and WMDs.
BTW, where can I get me a trap door and a shark tank?
Let me get this straight... China has nuclear weapons... North Korea has nuclear weapons... if Japan built some it would be destabilising???
Stefan, there's no point selling nuclear weapons to Japan. They have plenty of reactors and Uranium, and an excellent high-tech industry, give them a year or two and they'll have thermonuclear weapons if they really want them.
I don't trust China except that they are infinitely self-interested, so I don't think they're going to start anything, despite their constant chest-thumping. North Korea is a whole other kettle fish...
I think North Korea is a puppet state of China anyway. Giving nukes to Japan or letting them build their own would in fact keep China in check and North Korea indirectly,thus stablizing the region.
BTW, where can I get me a trap door and a shark tank?
The sharks will, presumably, have laser beams attached to their heads.
Every shark deserves a warm meal....
ps- just so we're clear, YES I caught the Team America reference in there Curtis.
I just felt a Dr. Evil tie-in was warranted.
It’s stupefying. North Korea’s conventional military strength is no match for South Korea’s forces, let alone American. The only thing they would accomplish, before getting bogged down, will be the slaughtering of tens of thousands of Korean civilians via artillery bombardment of Seoul and Inch’on. If they do launch a nuke or two, whether we manage to shoot them down or not, would be casus belli to flatten them. I truly don’t understand an endgame for them where they manage to win. Does anybody have any insight into what they are ultimately after (realistically not the reunification of Korea under their control)?
I think the only purpose of their military is to preserve the iron grip over the population and keep them from being liberated. They don't intend to use the artillery or nukes - as you point out, they'd lose - it's just to keep the status quo ad infinitum.
It's a power game, nothing more, and millions of ordinary citizens suffer greatly for the privileges their elite enjoy.
Communism is nothing but a massive rip-off and the threat of force is all that keeps it going.
To re-iterate a point I think I read here months ago, a point parallel to your point that the destabilization that a Nork Nuke would cause in the WestPac is the destabilization that would come out of an Iranian nuke. The Saudis on down would seek their own to protect themselves against those crazy Persians. The question becomes: Which is more destabilizing--allowing the Iranians to acquire their weapons or to prevent them from doing so?
Either way, I'm afraid we're in for a rough ride. Peace ain't easy.
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*must resist temptation for funny "Team America" one-liners.... must resist temptation for funny "Team America" one-liners...*