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Israel Can Go the Distance
By John
Israel has purchased 25 $84 million F-15I (I for Israel) Ra'am, a special version of the U.S. F-15E long-range interdiction bomber. It also is buying 102 of another long-range tactical jet, the $45 million F-16I Sufa. About 60 have been delivered.
The Jewish state also is buying 500 U.S. BLU-109 "bunker buster" bombs that could penetrate the concrete protection around some of Iran's underground facilities, such as the uranium enrichment site at Natanz. The final piece of the enterprise is a fleet of B-707 air-to-air refuelers that could nurse strike aircraft as they made the 900-mile-plus trip inside Iran, dropped their bombs and returned to Israel.
"They have the capability to strike Iran," said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas G. McInerney, a former fighter pilot who has trained with Israelis. "It would be limited, though. They could do 30 to 40 'aim points' in the array. I'm not worried about them hitting the targets. They will suffer losses, but they are capable of doing it."
You don't buy airborne refuelers unless your intention is to project force outside the normal range of your fighters. 30 to 40 aim points sounds about right; I'd be curious to see the strike package that Israel assembles for the mission. As Operation Dawn proved in 1967, the Israelis won't hestitate to send their entire fighter fleet if that is what they feel is necessary to accomplish the mission.
Now the question is airspace. What Arab nation are they going to have to fly over to strike the Persians?
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I don't think the Turks would give either overflight permission or any sort of basing concession. The Iraqi government wouldn't either, and the Americans can't allow themselves to be seen as a part of the op, so landing in Iraq is out.
Here's my (rather harebrained) theory of how they'd do it:
Launch and fly south over the Red Sea, the Egyptians might track, but they probably wouldn't report to the Iranians at all, and if they did it would have to be a political decision so it might happen too late.
Low-altitude dash accross Saudi Arabia. I can't plot an exact route because I don't know the terrain well enough, but y'all know the idea: stay below LOS from major bases if possible, skirt known radar sites, etc. The Saudis might even turn a blind eye. Iran does terrify them after all. They wouldn't give formal overflight rights, but they wouldn't be rushing to tell the Iranians.
Tank over the gulf. This is tough because I'm sure Iranian air defense assets can cover the entire gulf. I'd have the refueling jets travelling closely along commercial air routes that would bring them into the area at exactly the right time. Maybe fake their transponders to make them look like civvies, maybe just black them out completely and hope for the best. Either way, the idea is that the Iranians won't know what's up yet, so they won't be willing to splash wide-bodies that might be packed full of passengers.
Hit the targets, go in low, and go in hard. You're probably going to want at least one or two dedicated wild weasels with each flight. Pickle off anti-rad missiles to keep SAM radars off. At minimum this will confuse the Iranian tracking pictures, as they flip radars on and off. At best, this will kill Iranian air defenses in case a follow up is needed.
Tanking on the way back should happen over international waters in the Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean area, then a leisurely jaunt back up the Red Sea to Tel Nof or wherever the hell the launch point was.
William excellent wargaming (one of the reason I visit OPFOR).
However I think the Turkey idea may have some merit. The Turks have long had problems with the Iranians funding their domestic terrorists, kind of like they fund Hezbollah to attack Israel. Turks may be interested in getting their own proxy war blows in via Israel.
That said, I think your plan is feasible.
Deliveries of the F-16I Sufa (Storm) began in early 2004. This heavily modified aircraft, with massive conformal fuel tanks, has a reported combat radius of 2,100 km. Probable strike targets such as Bushehr and Esfahan lie about 1,500 km from Israel.
Papa Ray
Sorry guys - I am not a wargaming or military expert, so feel free to give me a critique. So my question is: what about going through Jordan / Iraq, as te article suggests? The Iraqi portion will of course require US permission, but I think the US would grant it.
Would Israel involve C3 and ECM air?
Any idea what type ECM type air capability the Israelis have?
Let's use the Good Old USA B-1, B-2, Tomahawk, and assorted attack fighters. Time to make some holes in the ground.
If the Saudis are smart, they will give their equipment and crews a little on the job training.
Iran will kill anyone. Don't be stupid. Is Hillary Iranian?
Bottom line is, EU, US, NATO, IDF: everyone wants the Iranian threat of Nukes gone, gone gone.
IDF are the perfect tool to do it, completely Maverick.
My vote has been for the Turkey option, 40 aimpoints. I figured that Israel may have been working on something with them for some time, just conjecture but doesn't it make sense that they've been really really quiet?
Also, since Turkey didn't let the US bring the 4th ID in, which would have put the right amount of pressure onto the Sunni Triangle, they may owe US a favor to be cashed in very discreetly.
The refueling... not so sure about that. I think it's a great option to bait the 'planning mullahs' of Iran, but not so sure how the feasibility would go. Unless SAR efforts were American, respond to distress call and operate in SAR boxes along the route. Interesting, just an 'exercise' for the USN, have six or seven small boys as lily pads for a whole hellofalot of helos.
In which case, how do you return foreign pilots, or do you even say you have them? Not like you could keep something like that under wraps. Gets touchy.
Bingo Charlie:
Turkey is not as friendly with Israel as it once was, and if I were the Turkish government I would be terrified that Iran would start funneling aid to the PKK. Iran has at least a limited history of funding Kurdish groups in Iraq, so I don't see why they wouldn't be inclined to do the same in response to a percieved hostile action by Turkey. I think this is a disincentive for Turkish support for this kind of op, rather than an incentive as you suggest. If I were the Turks, I wouldn't trade some Iranian nuke facilities for a revolt in Dyarbikir.
The reason the Jordan-Iraq route is a no-go is that the whole reason why Israel is going to be doing this instead of the rest of the civilized world is that nobody else can get their hands dirty with a sneak attack like this. US and NATO need deniability. Overflight of Iraq removes that deniability. I could be wrong of course, just stating my opinion.
On the SAR issue, there are a couple options. Obviously any Israeli pilot ejecting over Iran is going to be in a lot of trouble. But, look who Iran borders: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey, all of whom Israel could probably get their pilots back from, maybe after a period of internment at the worst. Likewise for the Gulf states. To cover the possibility of a ditch in the gulf. I would preposition an Israeli dry-cargo ship in the Gulf. Find one that's going to Bahrain, replace part of its crew, have it offload its cargo on schedule, and have it be there right when the op goes down. Recovery of downed pilots would have to be by zodiak, which would be slower than ideal, but the Gulf in the summer shouldn't be cold or too rough, so survival time for pilots without serious open wounds would be pretty good. Not idea, but just a thought.
I dount the Iranians would ever fund the PKK, seeing as how they are in the middle of a low intensity conflict with the Kurds as we speak.
The following idea is not totally original but I think it more likely that Israel would use a FARP (really a seized airfield) in the far eastern part of Syria and then simply fly low and slow across northern Iraq into Iran. This approach might be a little more audacious, but offers some advantages:
1. It's an upexepcted air avenue, likely with less fixed air defenses and enemy combat air patrols on the ingress routes. There is also at least some topography at the Iranian border that might provide radar cover as well (definately better cover than coming in over the Persian Gulf).
2. Using a FARP would allow for continuous bombing for 12-36 hours (basically until a Syrian mechanized force can get in position to over-run it). That would probably get you a few hundred aim points and the ability to mop up any points missed after BDA.
3. Israel would never have US permision to do something like this, but if they gave us an hour notice diplomatically what could we do? Start shooting down IAF planes as thet crossed Iraq?? I don't see that happening. Even better, if you look at this from an Israeli point of view, such an action might bring US and Iran into open hostiilities, which strategically, is exactly what Israel would like to see.
4. It embarrasses Syria, and maybe even gives Israel a good reason to thrash Syria during the shaping operations.
On the negative side, this would be audacious, place a lot of the IAF at risk, and likely have the potential to tip off Iran, especially if they couldn't covertly seize an airfield, which is a really tall order.
With the high degree of hardening on the key Iranian sites, I wouldn't attack unless I could really pour it on.
I also don't see a snowball's chance in hell of getting Turkish permission to use their airspace. After their huge movie hit "Valley of the Wolves," (you know, where Gary Bussy of Celebrity Fit Club fame plays a Jewish Doctor stealing Muslim organs from prisoners at Abu Gahrib to sell in Israel and New York) I don't see their government all that enthused about setting off an internal time bomb with their own fundamental elements.
Later - Nerf
An air corridor thru Iraq is a distinct possibility, even without US permission. Isreal will do what they perceive is best for Isreal and if that happens to not align with US interests or even runs counter to it so be it.
How much air interdiction capability do we actually have in Iraq? If 40+ IDF attack planes loaded for bear appear unannounced over Iraq, what really could the US or Iraqis do since most of our air assets in country are configured for ground support. Support could be called in from US bases in Saudi and the carriers, but they probably wouldn't be quick enough to do anyth good.
Crossing Iraq (probably via Syria since their AA appears to be a joke) would cause a lot of political problems with the US since they'll be catching bloody murder from the Arabs, but if Isreal is determined to do it, that seems the most likely. After all, the US has never really leveled any kind of punitive measure in the past when Isreal worked counter US interests. Why would Isreal fear US reaction on this one since its at least marginally in US interest (defanging Iran over-riding Arab tensions).
The only snag in an Iraq over-flight is if a local commander takes his charge to defend Iraqi sovereignty to heart, and a US patrol does challenge the strike-force. Will the Isrealis risk another Liberty incident with their only major ally?
Quick question for any one how much of the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea is considered "International Air Space"?
Reason I ask is because taking a quick look at a map it might be possible for them to launch from Israel, fly the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, top of their tanks in the air over the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean. Mean while one or two Israeli AWACS birds also in the area spends some time ID'ing the Iranian radar sights that are taking an intrest. Once the fighters are topped off they could possibly hit the deck and come in fast and hard with the first wave hitting the targets ID'ed via the AWACS. Long fight times (if done a normal speeds, shorter if they don't care about how fuel they use for the op) but could be done.
Not saying that this is what they will do, BUT if they wanted to hit them with out having or needing to get 'permission' from any one for over-flight.
Remember with their range and refuling capability they could just take the long way around. Like the U.S. had to when France denied us overflight in '83 Lybia.
Also the SAR issue with coming in from the water, there is better chances of having covert/pre positioned boats with/with-out helos waiting.
Also lets not forget that Israel has aircraft carriers. That could be used to a) conduct the strike runs, b) be prepositioned for SAR work, c) supply moble/late to launch (only in the air when needed) re-fulling, or d) any combination there of.
Just some thoughts I had during lunch.
J.
Nerf:
I like the FARP idea, but that's not really traditionally how the IAF has planned ops. Look at '67 or al Tuwaitha, or even the way they took out the Syrian SAM system in '82. One massive attack, in-and-out, less risk. Also, why involve Syria at all? It can only create more problems for Israel in Lebanon. I understand and agree with your points regarding topography being bad over the Gulf route, and that's a problem, but I think coming over Syria and Iraq creates more problems.
As for Iran not backing the PKK because of their own Kurdish problems, that didn't stop the Iranians from supporting Ansar al-Islam in northern Iraq, so I don't see why it would stop them in Turkey.
I don't think the Iraq route makes sense for the Israelis. The US needs to have its hands clean on something like this, and Israel can't afford American sanctions or even disapproval. If Iraqis start rioting because Zionist planes used their airspace to take on their Shia brothers, the US will not be happy. Israel does recognize the need to keep the US government happy.
Finally, the issue of hardening. I have a lot of trouble believing the reports on how effective hardening really is against modern bunker-busters. BLU 109 has got to penetrate a couple of vertical feet of concrete, coupled with a 2,000 pound warhead? You're telling me a nuke lab with all kinds of sophisticated equipment is going to survive say four successive hits unscathed? Even if it's buried 20, 30 feet or pure concrete, I don't see that kind of defense working against a modern airforce with the right equipment. In the battle between armor and warhead, isn't the rule that warhead always wins?
J, just saw your post.
I don't know where you're getting the fact that Israel has aircraft carriers. I am fairly sure that's not the case. Having AWACS prepositioned in the area could be risky, depending on their levels of emissions control. Could give the Iranians warning that something was up.
I think a sprint accross Saudi is a better idea than a long run around the entire Arabian penninsula because you've got to figure that at some point the Iranians are going to get warned that Israeli jets are on their way. Maybe Egypt tips them off, maybe they hear about it on CNN, who knows. But cutting accross Saudi would be a meaningful reduction in overall flight time. On the way back, going all over water is probably the way to go.
Scharf,
You might be right about the carrier issue. I seem to remember reading something about Israel having one or two light carriers that they use to launch helos from, much like the US/British light assult carriers for the harrier jump jets. I do know that in 2004 they were in talks to aquire a larger carrier. Now I may be wrong about them having light carriers/assualt ships and the deal for the bigger carrier may ever have gone through.
I do agree with you that heading streight across Saudi would be faster, all I was saying is they "could" do it the long way if needs be.
J.
You guys are the experts, so maybe you can answer this. Could Israel, alone, bomb the Iranian government out of existence? Hitting their nuke factories won't be enough.
William, I appreciate the feedback. I do think setting up a forward base in Syria is dangerous and provacative, but as a planner I would consider it. I do think you over-estimate Israel's regard for our diplomatic situation. If I were in their shoes, I would favor the strategic solution that has the greatest chance of opening hostilities between Iran and America. They might piss some people off in DC, but in the end, we would just have to cover down on them no matter what. Israel gets trashed by the world opinion no matter what they do, so why should they give a damn. In for a penny, in for a pound.
I am pretty sure that Israel has no aircraft carriers. I think a few of their surface combatants can land helos and that's about it. With so much light Iranian naval force in the gulf, I don't see any solution that requires Israeli naval presence there unless the USN is already in a shooting naval war with Iran.
Last, no, I doubt anybody could bomb a government out of existence. If that was the case, then there would have never been a Bay of Pigs or Invasion of Iraq and Momar Quaddaffi (may his spellings be many) would be history from the 1986 strikes. That reminds me of that douschbag major that was on O-Relliey last night, trying to claim that since Mossad was so bad a$$, that Israel could infiltrate and subvert Hezbollah at will. I think his point was that the current campaign in Lebanon wasn't necessary. If all it would take is a yamaka wearing Jack Bauer to put an end to Hezbollah, then I think that would have been tried already. Anyway, I digress, yall have a good night. Later -
Good points Nerf. Israel could "bomb a government out of existence" with nukes, but conventionally it's impossible.
I think the US would help out with SAR activity. Using all small boy (frigates, destroyers, etc) with pads they could stage SAR boxes throughout the long flight around the peninsula. Combining this with 'exercises' designed to put a lot of air traffic into the space at the same time the Israelis punched through would help saturate the Iranian missile defense teams without even firing.
Oh, and as for international airspace in the NAG: Aside from what Clinton may have authorized as a standoff (15 nautical miles) the 12-mile limit is what is recognized. Take it from someone who has violated Iranian airspace before. ;-) (evil grin)
Going forward: Israel would have much better power projection by upping their naval air force and purchasing dual-purpose F/A-18s and MV-22s, along with a scrapped aircraft carrier. Call me sentimental, but couldn't we do a lend-lease with the old USS Ranger or Constellation, and get them up and running within a two year period? ;-)
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The Israelis and the Turks signed a few treaties back in '98 or '99, including military treaties.
Pure conjecture: The Israelis fly out to the med into international flight space, and hang a right to Turkey. They then fly within Turkey to air bases at the eastern end of the country. It's also possible that Iraq lets the Israelis stage out of the airport/airbase near Mosul.
From there, the re-fueling becomes easier. To get back, they run the route in reverse. As I said, pure conjecture, but it limits the prospect of overflying Jordan and most of Iraq.