Sometimes wars happen where we least expect them, and don’t happen where we think they will erupt. We endlessly prepared for a Cold-War showdown with the Soviets in the Folda Gap, but ended up fighting in Grenada. I want to look into the “Tom Clancy crystal ball”, and predict some possible/probable future conflicts that may embroil America, but won’t be started by her. Here are some of my predictions:
The Battle for North Africa
Players: Algeria, Tunisia, and Mauritania vs. Libya and Morocco
The Setup: Libya’s Kaddaffi keels over, and leaves the country’s future leadership uncertain, and militarily weak. Meanwhile, Morocco becomes increasingly embroiled in an insurgency (funded by Algeria) on its southern border with Mauritania over the Western Sahara region. Algeria, with its client state Tunisia, sees this as the time to strike and achieve regional hegemony. Awash in petrodollars, Algeria has purchased the most modern military equipment in the region form Russia and the CIS. Domestically, Algeria needs an excuse to unite the country to cement their regime’s victories over the Islamist insurgents in the south. A new pan-Arab nationalism rhetoric emerges, and is acted upon at the opportune moment militarily.
The Tactics: Algeria rolls several tank brigades across the Moroccan border, supported by heavy artillery and air forces. In Mauritania, the insurgency ramps up with arms shipments of heavy weapons, ADA, and AT assets. This increasingly ties down the fairly modernized Moroccan mech units. Algeria’s initial incursion is a Blitzkrieg, which leaves Morocco fighting a delaying action while pleading for international assistance.
The Outcome: This scenario could shake up the balance of power in the entire region. Morocco, a longtime US ally, would no doubt get a sympathetic ear from America. The other wild card in this is Libya: would Algeria open up a second front to unify the North African coast under one Arab nationalist/socialist rule? How much of a fight would Libya put up minus their dictator? This region is becoming increasingly armed, and unstable. The emergence of a strongman/nation who can militarily dominate it is only a matter of time.
La Revolucion!
Players: Cuban pro-government forces vs Cuban independence forces
The Setup: Fidel croaks! Raul Castro, the heir apparent, gets a lukewarm response form the military in Cuba. Some of the officer corps defects, and allies with a well-funded pro-democracy movement, along with a returning force of “Free Cuba” volunteers from the refugee community in America. What results is a full scale guerilla war across Cuba, pitting the pro-Castro forces against a revolutionary army that sees a golden opportunity to break the Cuban status quo from the past 50 years of tyranny.
The Tactics: An irregular force with many Hispanic-American war veterans swarms Cuba with nascent support from America. The Cuban army fractures, and the government becomes viewed as illegitimate as the rebels plead for international assistance and the establishment of a Cuban democracy. Throughout the conflict, low-level light infantry conflict at the company and platoon level rage across the Caribbean garden spot. Guards at GTMO watch the battles with binoculars, and bet heavily on the revolution.
The Outcome: A Cuban democracy is possible within our lifetime, but it will take a fight to dislodge the Castro regime. Also, Venezuela could heavily support the Castro regime, leading to a US/Venezuela proxy war in Cuba. Depending on the level of American involvement, the outcome of this conjured-up conflict could go either way.
Chechnya, Round Two
Players: Russia vs Chechnyan Islamists
The Setup: The Islamist terrorists, not making any ground in Iraq, begin to quietly emigrate north taking their operational experience with them with the real hope of establishing an Islamist state elsewhere. Russia, caught off guard while in the busy business of exporting arms to everyone who will buy them, suddenly finds itself needing to use them at home. A resurgent Chechnya shreds a Russian “peacekeeping” regiment, drawing the Bear back into the ring with the Islamists for a second round.
Tactics: The Islamists deploy many of the tactics used against better trained and equipped US forces in the complex urban and mountainous terrain of Chechnya. IEDs, suicide bombings, low level infantry operations, and AT/ADA ambushes draw in several Soviet divisions to pacify the region a second time. Additional wrinkle: the acquisition of WMD artillery shells by the insurgents, and the reactions of the Russians if their troops were gassed.
The Outcome: Russia getting tied down with a resurgent Islamist movement may actually drive them closer to America, but it is unlikely America would become involved in this conflict. Russia’s military superiority would likely prevail, but depending on the Islamic resistance, it may be very costly.
Baby-Blue Hawk Down
The Players: The UN vs Sudanese-backed Islamists in Darfur
The Setup: A UN peacekeeping force deploys to Darfur, and immediately gets attacked on multiple fronts by warlords and Al Qaeda in the midst of a humanitarian disaster-come-genocide. Several UN choppers are downed, some aid workers killed, many kidnapped, and insurgents proclaim a new front in the war of global jihad.
Tactics: the usual “ala carte” terror tactic menu of IEDs, ambushes, and asymmetric fighting. The desired end-state for the Islamists is the establishment of a greater Islamic state in Africa, and the expansion of Islamic rule. The UN, humiliated by the attacks, goes to the international community and pleads for assistance. When donated funds are immediately misused, already-shaky UN credibility is shot, and a forced “last helicopter” withdraw of the toothless international peacekeeping detachment seems increasingly likely.
The Outcome: The UN’s international peacekeeping forces are not an army. Even though an Arab “militia” usually folds like a cheap lawn chair when confronted with an American infantry company, they will have surprising success against lightly-armed peacekeepers.
There are probably lots of these little wars lurking off in the distance. Got any other suggestions?
I see a coming conflict between decepticons and autobots.
Reverse Domino Stopped Short
The free world celebrates as democracy takes root in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and most of Southwest Asia. And similarly, in Afghanistan, Pakistan,and Uzbekistan. All of of the “stans”, for that matter.
Some of this is the result of intense efforts by US players, overt, covert, political, and by other means. Some are only natural. Freedom is truly on the march.
And as a final climax, a new Revolution takes place in Iran. Whatever the means, the mullahs are overthrown, a liberal democracy is established, the nukes are handed over to the UN, and the oil flows free.
The future looks bright in the middle East. And we in the US are feeling proud.
But meanwhile, volcanoes are rumbling in Central America. Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti have all moved toward an aggressive sort of socialism/communism/facism.
And Mexico is next in play.
The US, while focusing its efforts for the past10-20 years on establishing democracy in the middle east, has effectively ignored developments in South and Central America. Resources were just stretched too thin with the conflicts with the Islamo-fascists.
And an increasingly negative attitude toward illegal immigrants from south of the border provided political fodder for the despots to the south to turn their populations against the US.
Meanwhile, Cuba and Venezuela learned the lessons of the Iranian mullahs circa 2005. 1960’s era nuclear bomb and missile technology, bought with oil and drug money, is the real key to power over the US, and in effect, power over the world.
All that remains is to instigate or merely satiate the local populace with a few choice pieces of repeated rhetoric from unscrupulous US politicians.
But there are two major differences between the Iranian nukes and the Venezuelan nukes:
From South America, the missiles can actually reach US soil.
And the people and material smuggling paths into the US are already well established, and damn near certain.
So great military minds, how do you get us out of this one?
No one in this hemisphere will be allowed to develop Nuclear Weapons.
Further, as to the country club Chavez leads, I believe he has at most about two years to lead. He will come down from within.
The Past and Future War
The future structure of the military is scarcely an exact science. Too often the Congress and senior military leadership fail to consider the potential for large-scale wars. This is an egregious error but not without precedent. At the end of…
What probability would you assign to each of the scenarios that you described in your post? Or, which ones are the most likely to occur within the next few years?
…The UN, humiliated by the attacks, goes to the international community and pleads for assistance….
This one got me chuckling. The UN humiliated? C’mon. They’re long past being humiliated. And “the UN goes to the international community and pleads for assistance”? Isn’t the UN just the “international community” that you’d have them pleading to? Isn’t that circular?
It is interesting that many on the Left shouted “Quagmire!” on our entrance into Iraq, but are cheering on an effort for us to go into Darfur. You want to see quagmire–send our troops into Central Africa. Darfur is in the middle of a tragic genocide, yet the case that using our troops to prevent this genocide is shaky. If US troops must be used to defend “human rights” at every point on the globe, do we really become the “World’s Policeman”?
Let’s look at these:
North Africa: Meh. More likely is revolution/instability in Egypt. Its already been simmering for a long time. Al-Queda, on the way to the Sudan, decides killing starving black people is actually a public relations no-no, and instead tries the ‘liberation’ of Egypt from its tyrannical US-backed overlords. Hilarity (and mayhem) ensues.
Cuba: Fidel Croaks, and Raoul reveals he’s actually a 17% stake holder in Bally’s, which opens a Casino immediately in Havana. Trump Enterprises bribes its way in and Havana becomes a honey-moon destination once again. (My parents went there.) (I really can’t see Hispanic veterans of the US army being interested in ‘liberating’ Cuba. When Fidel goes, I predict the whole edifice will be gone in a fortnight. I could of course, be wrong).
Chechnya: Most likely scenario. Capped off by a suicide nuke set off in Moscow got off the Iranians, who bought it from the North Koreans. Russia nukes everybody involved, to the horror of the rest of the world, but there’s nothing anyone can do about it. US withdrawl from Iraq and AF accelerated due to Fallout worries. Side effect: Democratic party folds after its pointed out this could have been the US.
Darfur: UN will never deploys a peacekeeping force, whole scenario is moot. HOWEVER, France intervenes in the ongoing Chadian civil war, and gets bogged down in a guerilla war in Chad which spills over into the Sudan. This could also impact the unrest in Egypt noted above. Outcome: Lots more black Africans die. Business as usual.
Others:
Musharraf is assassinated: Pakistani civil war ensues. I can’t even imagine how this would play out, other than it would be ugly.
Kim Jong-Il dies of heart-attack after drinking binge. North Korea implodes as some apparatchiks attempt reform, and others try to seize power. Flood of refugees forces both China and South Korea to intervene, which results in reunification of Korea, but with Korea in a more Chinese orbit than before. Chinese seize NK nuclear assets, US and Japan look on.
Central America:
Unrest in Mexico; immigration/drug war tensions spark some sort of conflict on the US-Mexican border.
Venezuala: Chavez uses oil money to buy nukes from North Korea. Respond to that one, everbody.
Europe: Belorussian Civil war.
I’m seriously wondering which body part you pulled the North Africa scenario out of. Seriously weird.
Much more likely: Ivory Coast Round II, with the losers winning the next African genocide sweepstakes. Potential to drag in all of IC’s northern and eastern neighbors while wrecking any chance Liberia has of regaining some form of peace.
Nigerian insurgency in the Niger Delta, possibly broadening into low-level civil war. West Africa’s largest and most powerful state, and a key oil supplier, begins to fall apart again. The key here is whether or not Obasanjo will be able to amend the Constitution and run again — this has the potential to splinter the country ethnically and religiously. Even without Obasanjo, there are no obvious contenders who can really unite the country’s power blocs. Continued fragmentation seems likely.
Anfal V — continuing the utter stupidity that was the British attempt to include Kurdistan inside a sovereign Iraq. Whoever wins in Baghdad will have to deal with a bunch of surly Kurds who want no part of them. Kirkuk goes to the winner. Plenty of outside fingers in the pie, from the Turks to the Iranians to the Israelis.
Palestine Civil War – Heating up as we speak. Fatah takes on Hamas. Bet on the side who believes more.
Maoist takeover in Nepal / Indian intervention – The Indians certainly don’t want Maoists in charge on their border and have their own simmering Maoist (Naxalite) insurgency on their hands, which they rate almost as dangerous as the Kashmir insurgency. The Nepalese political parties will prove unable to win the loyalty of the military, while the King has proven only his ability to alienate everyone. The Maoists are biding their time but will make their move for Kathmandu sooner or later. The Indians will respond with their intelligence services and perhaps some Gurkha regiments.
Chechnya, Round Two ???
Three !!!
there arent enough Chechen males of the right age left alive to make much of a fight.
China vs Taiwan, US vs Iran, US vs Somalia, Columbia vs Venezuela, NATO vs Belarus, NATO vs Turkey, Russia vs Georgia, and India vs Nepal.
North Africa: It’s a mechanized war. In the desert. Off the med. Anybody has to know that if we get involved, offensive capability not hidden in cities will be gone in a few days.
That tends to limit that sort of thing.
China vs Taiwan / USA
The citizens of Taiwan elect a president that promises to sever all links to china and declare complete independences.
Taiwan then goes to the UN to ask for full membership which it gets, china responds by moving its fleet to blockade all air and sea activities and slowly Taiwan degenerates.
Taiwan asks help from the US and not the UN as china is a veto holding member of the Security Council, the US reluctantly moves it’s Pacific fleet as a show of force for the now independent democratic Taiwan and China knows it can’t win in a conventional out and out shooting match with the US and so threatens the US to stay out of a internal matter with the use of Nukes.
US special forcer already in china report refuelling activity around know missile silos and under immediate treat the US launchers a pre-emptive first strike, probably from a sub in the Taiwan straits.
The US win in the first by close range first strike that obliterates China, but not before China has launched its nuclear retaliation response at the US and China wins some hours later by destroying all cities in the US.
And everybody on the planet losers.
i predict the greatest was of all time in the year 2010 between mexico and canada
There is alot of tension between countries all over the world. Countries are trying to build their military, and update weapons.Just like the times before the first WORLD WAR. and i see a New WORLD WAR happening from a small 3rd world country trying to build military and causing diplomatic problems with larger countries.Causing some kind of military action aganst the 3rd world country, causing a larger country to back them and setting off wars all over the world, and ending with changes all around the world and a new super power taking the place of our country.
el G.G.C.M.O se esta preparando para defender la isla de cualquier levantamiento si tiene que correr sangre cubana correra sangre cubana pero que ningun gringo va a poderarse de ella .. el movimiento revolicionario mas anonimo y sanguinario se prepara Bush …… te declaramos la guerra … pronto van a saber de nosotros ……
أرى أن الترسانة العكرية المغربية لا تزال بدائية ولا تواكب العصر ,لذا يجب من صناع القرار في المغرب عقد صفقات سلاح وتطويرها ليكون المغرب في كامل جاهزيته لردع أي هجوم محتمل من النضام الجزائري العدو….
I think America will have another civil war, a race war, or a “sub-conflict” if you want to be a politically correct denialist.
It will be blacks versus hispanics. As a matter of fact, racial gang wars of this sort are already happening in many cities throuhgout America.
This will be aggrevated by a severe economic breakdown, perhaps due to the current housing subprime collapse. You see, in America the rich are getting richer while the poor are just getting poorer, and the pro-immigration fake liberals and economic conservatives who want to exploit this are reving their denial propaganda machines full blast.
Meanwhile, these stinking filth f*ckers are enticing these people to live beyond their means…the result is this current economic breakdown that will be the most severe recession in US history…so bad that we will be just a little short of having to use the “d” word.
When desparate people facing social and environmental stresses face even more stress, the predominance of the individual that characterizes the material pursuit of happiness in American society will go down the f*cking sh*tter, and America will be like the rest of the world, facing the challenges posed by collective identity movements.
The first that will succumb to this will be blacks and hispanics, as both of the groups traditionally on the will blame the other for their difficult times out of frustration and ignorance of economics. And the race war will begin.
Once the more extreme elements of the hispanic racial warriors say “kill white people too”, the Chinese know they are really screwed, since America is no longer stable and all the dollared debt assests they hold will become more and more worthless.
F*CK AMERICA
Many more wars will happen for sure, the big one might be when our own technology evolves into something beyond our control. (And it might already be happening, the majority of the world just dosen’t know.) The elite ruling class are the first to know along with the top minds of the day. Money and greed, but ultimately survival, will cause these two groups to work together to secure their place in a future they won’t be able to totally control. Their armies will be made up mostly from prior special forces, soldiers of fortune. The regular military will be left out of the loop except for a select few who are enticed by the ruling class. Now you have two forces with totally different views and agendas. Lastly there will be the civilians with the bottom of the barrel means to defend themselfs from these two groups. Ultimately the militant group will see eye to eye with the civilians and come to terms to take back the earth for humanity. The evolved technology will kill of their slaves and scientist and become totally self sufficient. Question is, what being will prevail? Human or technology?
EH?