I have to admit that David Ignatius at the WaPo has struck a chord here:
“Even as the United States and the Taliban continue to pound each other on the battlefield, the two adversaries appear to be conducting parallel internal debates about what an eventual political reconciliation might involve.
“Each side wants to bargain from a position of maximum strength, and for the foreseeable future that means trying to inflict maximum pain. Each seems to be betting that the staying power of the other is limited — by domestic politics, regional dynamics and the cost of the conflict in money and blood. The main advantage of the Taliban, arguably, is that its fighters are a permanent part of the landscape.
“U.S. military commanders here see signs that their aggressive “capture or kill” operations have rocked the Taliban — and pushed some of the insurgents to consider negotiations with President Hamid Karzai….”
That’s perilously close to saying that we’re starting to win, but we’ll put it aside for now. As the article goes on to state, reconciliation or negotiation with the “Big T” Taliban is a no-go, not that they’d be interested anyway– they’re too bad, too implacable, too irreconcilable if you will. They need to be killed or driven off for good. The “Little T” Taliban and all the lower-level knuckleheads are a different story. If they can be persuaded that it’s in their best interest to reconcile, (i.e. not get killed or driven off) AND they see the GIRoA as the best bet, well, they’re canny enough to choose wisely.
But that’s the crux– who’s the best bet?
“Complicating the situation for both the United States and the Taliban are the recent discussions between Karzai and Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, the Pakistani army chief. The Pakistanis would like to broker any settlement in Afghanistan. They appear to have had some success in convincing Karzai that, given Obama’s July 2011 timetable to begin withdrawal, Pakistan is his most reliable long-run partner.”
Pakistan is not necessarily a force for good here. They mean to dominate Afghanistan, not help it. Brother Karzai and Our President would do well to resist the easy way and stick it out til the end. They should keep Napoleon’s advice in mind– stay on the road to Vienna and not settle for Salzburg.
We live in interesting times. The next twelve months promise to be all that and more.
