Change 2 to Plan B

OK, if you’re looking for ME to explain this, I’m sorry to have to disappoint you. We’re scratching heads, too.

KABUL — The top challenger to Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced Sunday that he will not take part in a runoff election scheduled for Saturday because he did not think the vote would be fair, but diplomatic gestures by both camps suggested the move would not trigger a new political crisis in the tense and war-torn country.

Or so we all hope.

No matter how a new government is formed, analysts said the withdrawal by candidate Abdullah Abdullah will inevitably lead to Karzai’s de facto victory. But without a clear electoral mandate, they said, Karzai would begin his new term with lingering doubts about his credibility and reliability as a partner in the U.S.-led battle against Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents.

What this country needs is not, necessarily, a mandate but a clear decision one way or the other. I’d say we’re still scanning the passes for it, to use a Great Game phrase. And the sooner it comes into view the better, otherwise we might all face a winter of discontent.