Some of you might have seen this post on Michael Bane’s blog, about an article by William Fortschen, author of One Second After. (If you haven’t read the book, I suggest you do.)
The topic has appeared now also in Rawles’s always-interesting Survival Blog, first here and now here.
Thought you might want to know. Feel free to write in or comment if you know different, or know more. It is a subject I am increasingly interested in.
See
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0307127v2 for a less sensationalistic view of the likely impact of a high-altitude nuclear bomb on the power grid.
Quoting:
“The energy of the TEMP is one millionth of the bomb’s energy release spread out over
millions of square miles. Certainly, the lack of damage to both the power and the
communications systems in Hawaii from the 1.4-Mt Starfish blast counters the view that the effects of EMP are devastating to such systems.”
“Based upon the analyses presented in this paper and in Refs. [7-8], it appears highly improbable if not impossible that the EMP from a single nuclear burst could blackout this nation’s power grid. It would be practically impossible for the EMP to cause widespread damage to the U.S. transmission line system. With the exception of isolated cases, it appears highly
unlikely that EMP could produce extensive damage to the U.S. distribution grid. A single nuclear device exploded at high altitude will not render vital electrical services inoperable across the
entire United States as has been suggested in many media references.
Concurrent multiple bomb bursts will not have an additive TEMP effect, and will even interfere to produce less TEMP than a single burst.”
I have read Rawles’s “Patriots” and a free pdf “Lights Out” by Halffast on the net. The latter is a story of surviving an EMP. It seemed a bit more focused on describing one gun battle after another than on any other kind of survival. Both books suffer from the fact that main characters are fairly prepared, skilled, helped, and find cooperative comunities. In skimming Rawles’s website I find it easy to get depressed as very few people have or can get all of the skills needed, particularly without devoting your entire life to your new goals of survival in the wake of potential societal collapse. And these goals are not cheap either. At the same time you are supposed to be learning everything and buying everything you should have already moved to a remote yet friendly location where your current job (remember all the money you are spending) likely does not exist. I find it impossibly dificult to get from here to there even though I’d like to take some of the steps.
Bill and AnotherOpinion– Thanks for commenting. Although I’m somewhat relieved to see that “the EMP from a single nuclear burst could blackout this nation’s power grid,” I’m not as sure it wouldn’t cause some damage, and if coupled with another attack, it could be a serious matter. PLUS IT WOULD BE AN ACT OF WAR.
I agree about Patriots– its central strength and weakness is about people who are very well prepared. That’s why One Second After is a good counterpoise, as it shows what might happen to people who aren’t ready at all.
The sad thing is, if the heroes of the prepared storylines have close call after close call, then how aside from luck can any normal person hope to make it? In the “Lights Out” story, they have a community of nearly 500 people which includes several ex-military, a vet, a nurse, a plumber, a farmer, enough people for rotating guard duty, car tinkerers, etc. And they had huge influxes of guns after the EMP due to personal friendship with a firearms dealer.
Still, every story has some value.