Gaza

I'll give you point number two. It would appear that the attack is disproportionate. However, fighting a group (Hamas) who hides among the population is going to mean civilian casualties. It's unavoidable.

I am disappointed in Israel's fight on the PR front. They have not hammered their talking points enough that Hamas started this with HUNDREDS of rockets that have been fired at Israel. They have not hammered the point that Hamas purchased these rockets with money meant for humanitarian goods and infrastructure.

Instead, Hamas (and even Hezbollah in Lebanon) have repeatedly shown footage of dead kids and Israeli jets pummeling Gaza. That's the message getting out there.

When will western leaders learn that you CANNOT wipe them all out? If Israel's goal is to get all the rockets or get those who fired them, then they will fail. They will buy themselves an ebb in attacks... at best (even now under full assault, Hamas is launching rockets).

Israel will only win this on the IO and political front... when they have sufficiently painted Hamas as having failed the Palestinians in Gaza (an easy task as they have the West Bank to compare them to) and let the Palestinians who live in Gaza either vote Hamas out or simply drag them out and kill them.

This attack will set that goal back. Palestinians will only rally around Hamas, a cease-fire will eventually be worked out, Israel will withdraw, and after several months, Hamas will start launching rockets again.

Back to square one... which, it seems, is the endless story of the middle east peace process.

The Economist is also the magazine that stated that President Bush should fire Dick Cheney, so he'd not risk losing a vote of confidence.
They also have published the results of a "study" that purports to show a causal link between subscribing to gun-related magazines and violent crime with the intent of supporting the Labor party's efforts to ban 'gun porn'.

They are full of horseshit in the small things, and treating them as authoritative in the large things is suspect.

I take a very dark view of this conflict with reference to previous wars (both ancient and modern):

The IDF action will bring no peace in the long term. Its not because of too much force, but not enough. Hamas and future derivatives will continue to flourish because the general population of Gaza is so poisoned with the "kill all the Jews" mindset. You can't make peace with a people who simply want you dead.

The war will remain endless until the IDF takes the war to the general population of Gaza to such an extent; that the people of Gaza have to choose between peace or annihilation. Their will, means, and even their culture is so utterly destroyed that no resistance can be mustered by any means.

Examples through history of such action:

Caesar's conquest of Gaul.

The Roman occupation of Southern Britain (destruction of the Iceni tribes after the battle of Watling Street).

US Civil War: Sherman's March to the Sea (the action that pretty much ended the South as a viable entity).

WWII: The fire bombings and nuclear attacks on the civilian population of Japan.

I don't see any type of total war commitment from the Israeli government unless something really big happens. To paraphrase John Derbyshire: The Palestinians will eventually do something so horrible that a 100k or more Israelis will perish. Shorty after which the Palestinians themselves will cease to exist (as will a number of major Arab / Iranian population centers).

I have to say that the concept of proportionality is an isidious and deeply disturbing one. What would we set the constant of proportionality to? Should the Mossad kill a random Gazan every time Hamas gets lucky with one of their rockets? How many IDF reservists is Achmed the truck driver's life worth?

The response needs to be proportional, not to the provocation, but to the intended goal. And that goal should be to destroy the enemy's will to fight. That may be done by demonstrating their inferiority in arms such as the US south or the Germans, or by threatening them with annihilation like Japan in WWII.

Possibly the best thing Israel could do would be to start air-dropping food an medicine into Gaza, prominantly labelled "A gift to the people of Gaza from the people of Israel". Hamas will start confiscating it, but word will get around and will make Israel look good and Hamas look bad. Maybe that will be enough to seperate the people of Gaza from the death cult.

From Grim's Hall:

Terms like "proportional" and "disproportionate" are being thrown around in relation to current events in Gaza, and seem to be causing some confusion.. This is just a little reminder that the word really does have a meaning in the law of war. To quote from Army Field Manual 27-10, The Law of Land Warfare:

Particularly in the circumstances referred to in the preceding paragraph, loss of life and damage to property incidental to attacks must not be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage expected to be gained. Those who plan or decide upon an attack, therefore, must take all reasonable steps to ensure not only that the objectives are identified as military objectives or defended places within the meaning of the preceding paragraph but also that these objectives may be attacked without probable losses in lives and damage to property disproportionate to the military advantage anticipated. Moreover, once a fort or defended locality has surrendered, only such further damage is permitted as is demanded by the exigencies of war, such as the removal of fortifications, demolition of military buildings, and destruction of military stores (HR, art. 23, par. (g); GC, art 53).

HR refers to the Annex to Hague Convention IV, and GC to the Geneva Convention Related to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (the relevant quotes are about property damage; see Article 51 of this Additional Protocol, forbidding "indiscriminate attacks," for the application to humans, particularly subsection 5(b)).

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