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Paramilitary Terrorism
By Lt Col P
A most disturbing but provocative article appeared in last month's Journal of Homeland Security Affairs: "Paramilitary Terrorism: A Neglected Threat." The author plausibly and without difficulty constructs a scenario in which simultaneous school seizures are carried out in the US by AQ-linked paramilitary forces. Also without much difficulty he shows how these acts, like the 2004 Beslan siege, would have profound effects on our nation, and then describes the ways in which he thinks our security arrangements are inadequate to deal with them.
He has a point:
"From the standpoint of preparedness and response planning, such scenarios bear little resemblance to the Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) scenarios that command so much of our national attention. Assaults by armed groups, employing improvised explosive devices (IED) as enablers or force multipliers rather than the primary mechanisms of attack, are commonplace tactics of terrorists and insurgents worldwide. By contrast, effective WMD attacks, no matter how theoretically attractive to terrorists, and how extreme their potential consequences, remain so far the stuff of fiction. While paramilitary attacks may not offer first-order effects (casualties and physical damage) equivalent to those of large-scale WMD, their psychological and strategic impact – and thus their appeal as quintessential acts of terror – may be enormous."
As ugly as it is to discuss terrorism on this scale, I think that the author has done a good job of highlighting some gaps and seams, and offering some appropriate recommendations for achievable solutions. We'd all be better off if we engaged in some robust discussions and wargames on these problems.
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Comments
My opinion: This scenario is ignored because there is no media interest or money in it. The WMD stuff gets press for the worst case scenarios. Plenty of companies love selling cutting edge, ie expensive, equipment to local fire and police. The pols love getting someone else to pay for it via grant funding. Everyone already has body armor for their cops, but a fully equipped hazmat team can run up millions in equipment fast.
Yeah, but which threat?
Sure schools could be an attractive target, but what about the world headquarters of a major corporation such as an oil company or automotive company? The economic implications of a Beslan-like scenario in a major office building, one which houses the lawyers, finance officers, chief VPs, and CEO who make a company run could be just as severe and dramatic if not more so.
What about a para-military takeover of a small town or section of a town?
Bottom line: if we can think it, so can they, but you can't defend against every scenario and I refuse to live in a police state. Remember that flying large aircraft into important buildings was not a new idea: Tom Clancy used it in Debt of Honor.
I am not sure what the solution is, but there are some great points in this discussion.
As an aside, there was an episode on The Unit last which mirrored Beslan, though on a much smaller scale, here in the US.
I think the tearing at our hearts because of an attack such as this is the motivation. People would race to the parking lots, then an attack on first responders and parents as the story goes.
Truly horrible, hard to defend. How do you stop the reaction of first responders, screaming mothers & raging fathers or vice versa.
You'd have the holy war Islam wants.
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That is an interesting brief. It becomes more interesting when you overlay it against the budding insurgency in Mexico which has a significant para-military presence. STRATFOR has been providing some pretty decent analysis and updates on Mexico, something to keep an eye on if you happen to live/work near the border areas.