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The Shape of Future War
By Charlie
It is taken as common wisdom that in the future, the US will face a large degree of irregular warfare when dealing with enemy actors, both state and non-state. Analysis of insurgencies, past, present, and potential, has been frequent and in depth –but what about all of those conventional armies that are still out there? While terrorist groups like Al Qaida lack infrastructure, funding, equipment, manpower, and all of the other benefits of an established military, state actors have all of these advantages from the beginning. Theorists often say that the military plans to fight and win the last war, so will nation-state adversaries do the same? Another way to frame this question is: will enemy conventional armies fight conventionally in the future? Will they (and are they able to) fight unconventionally? Is there some way for them to do both, and to maximize the advantages and minimize the disadvantages of each?
These questions are relevant to ask, especially now as the Army swings into full COIN mode. The emphasis on nation-state military threats has decreased, due in part to the fact that our forces have been very adept at striking and disabling conventional military forces, but that assumes that enemy conventional armies will not adapt their tactics or adjust their strategies in the future. How many future enemy armies will fight a war we want them to fight, the way we want them to fight it?
This is a broad topic, so let us attempt to address each of these questions:
Will nation-state adversaries plan to fight the US based off of OIF I tactics?
Will enemy conventional armies fight conventionally in the future?
Will enemy conventional armies (and are they able to) fight unconventionally?
Is there some way for enemy conventional armies to fight conventionally and unconventionally at the same time, and to maximize the advantages and minimize the disadvantages of each?
I will attempt to address each of these in a different post, but I would like to get some comments on the concept first. COIN training is prevalent, but should we be watching threat nation-states and evaluating what the next war may look like?
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Comments
I have not heard much about a coordinated strike or series of prepatory strikes in the following veins: internet, economic, smuggled WMD, "terrorist" type attacks by a nation. On the one hand I see our nation as resilient, on the other hand I see financial distress and natural disasters trumpeted in the news. I wonder how we would deal with multiple attacks/disasters from multiple vectors from a group that could really coordinate them for synergism or to keep us off balance. I guess I'd feel more confident about the things I don't know if we handled the things I know about well.
Q1: If we move to focus on COIN, doesn't that mean "the way we want them to fight" is "unconventionally", and thus technically conventional, making the old conventional unconventional, and consequently the new fashionable way to fight (again)?
Q2: Does the shift in current conflicts toward extranational entities mean the "conventional" threat has become objectively less threatening?
This would be so much easier (in a not-easy-at-all sort of way) if we just conquered the dang world already, making conventional warfare impossible. I'd offer my services, but I'm still allergic to white cats, haven't got the cash for an egg-chair, can't get a shark tank past the landlord, and my physics major friends tell me that an "orbital mind-ray" is "just silly".
I now dare anyone to make a less lucid post.
Given the experience of the last 8 years, where would a future President actually use force?
In 1913, Who would have picked Serbia? My pick is Pakistan.
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Well, if this isn't an open ended question.
But this has to be answered first: Given the experience of the last 8 years, where would a future President actually use force?
Who do you really think the US would fight over?