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Fire Down Below
By Charlie
Hey folks, remember South America? You know, that entire continent that we've been ignoring for the past 8 years?
Venezuela Sends Troops to Colombian Border
Venezuelan military officials say they have now sent almost 6,000 soldiers to the country's border with Colombia.The military said about 90 percent of its deployment to the border is complete. On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered ten battalions to the border following an attack by Colombian forces on FARC (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) rebels inside Ecuador.
...
Colombia's representative to the OAS, Camilo Ospina, acknowledged that Colombian military helicopters entered Ecuador's territory last week. He apologized to Ecuador but defended the incursion.Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has accused his Venezuelan counterpart of financing and supporting the FARC.
Colombia, the United States and the European Union have labeled the FARC a terrorist group.
One of the rebels killed in the raid was Raul Reyes, a spokesman and leader of FARC.
Hmmm. State supporter of terrorism? Certainly not Hugo Chavez, Man of the People. Or not:
Seized laptop shows Chavez's rebel ties
BOGOTA, Colombia - Files in a laptop computer seized from the wreckage of a Colombian rebel camp in Ecuador offer new insights into Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's desire to undermine Colombia's U.S.-allied government If authentic, the computer files suggest Chavez has been in league with the rebels for more than a decade.They indicate that Chavez, seeking to raise the FARC's stature and relieve it of its international pariah status, shares their goal of isolating and discrediting Colombia's president, Alvaro Uribe
Wow, putting aside tactics and strategy -let's talk psychology. Now that Castro's gone, is it time for Hugo to flex his foreign policy muscles to prove he's the caretaker of the revolution? Does this hearken back to Cuba's invasion of Angola? Chavez hasn't invaded yet, so we'll see.
Put this at reason #1,438 that we need a larger military, so that we could have ample troops on hand to open up a third front if necessary.
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Comments
Colombia has both a quantitatively and qualitatively superior army.
All we need is to park a CVBG off Venezuela's coast to give Hugo a moment of pause. That'll put a kabosh on this whole thing.
Chavez' country is going broke and his people are getting angry because of his foolish spending. This is nothing more then an attempt to drive oil prices even higher. You will notice that he declined to mention cutting off our oil "unless we invade" Venezuela. He needs our money. This is all going to fade away in a few weeks, unless good old Hugo is crazy on top of being dumb.
I have to agree with Joel. Colombia's military has been training with the US as well as fighting this guerilla war for a long time. It is honed and ready to go with superior equipment and men. Chavez has not always had the best relationship with his armed forces, I would guess that he has tried to buy them off by keeping them fat and happy, not by hard training.
Mike, remember the Che flag in one of Obama's campaign HQs a few weeks back? I'm not trying to imply anything about The Obamessiah, but he does have followers who are that far left.
Re: Hugo's falling popularity; if you're in that deep political trouble, one of the best ways to stay in power is to start a war. Appeal to nationalism.
This is all assuming that somebody isn't making up what they found on those laptops. I'm just being skeptical here.
Does anybody really think that Chavez is going to really attack Columbia?
I can't see him doing that, because it would be monumentally stupid--how is Chavez going to fight his war when he can't ship his oil anywhere?
But hey it could happen. Stranger things have.
In that case, I'd expect that the Columbians would be able to take care of themselves with little help from the US Air Force. (or a Navy Carrier) along with US intel help. I don't see any reason for US ground troops, but isn't that what we got Marines for? They're not all over in the mideast.
Assuming worst case scenario and they do start shooting, how do the two respective air forces match up? I know its basically a wash navy wise, since the Russians have delivered the Kilo-class subs yet. And ground pounder wise, the Columbians have superiority in training and equipment. While all of their fighting has been counter-insurgency, traditionally, Latin America wars have been small unit affairs so that will work in Columbia's favor. So the balance point seems to be the air: Venezuela's Sukhoi's vs Columbia's Mirage's and Kfir's. And I think the numbers are comparable. Can Columbia holdout against Venezuela without US assistance? Just as important, can Columbia pull of deep air raids against Venezuela? How long would Chavez hold onto power if Columbia crippled Venezuela's oil production?
For the record, I don't see how Chavez would take this into actual war. He's made his point. He's maintained his bona fides with the FARC and other leftist militants in Latin America. Especially with the bonus of getting the OAS to condemn Columbia for the cross-border attacks without mention of Ecuador's sheltering of FARC. I don't see him risking an across the board win. Course, Pineapple head isn't the sharpest knife in the kitchen so you never can tell.
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In the yahoo news story about the seized laptop, check out the last couple paragraphs. I'm curious if anyone will pickup the part about the "gringos" trying to establish ties. It's implied that they presented themselves as belonging to Obama, or at least affiliated with the Obama campaign. I don't think that Obama himself is in on it, but if people associated his organization are meeting with terrorists that could be a huge issue.