Muqtada al-Sadr is getting nervous

For quite some time, I have predicted that al-Sadr would maintain a low profile to avoid the wrath of the Multi-National Force-Iraq. Last summer he even declared a cease-fire with coalition forces. He hoped that the American people would force a withdrawal from Iraq and that General Petraeus would just go away.

Instead, the Surge took hold. The American people lost interest in the fight and Petraeus put a cop on every corner in Baghdad. Then, he brilliantly embraced Muqtada’s offer of peace while he worked tirelessly at reconciliation with the reconcilable and elimination of the irreconcilables. If Mahdi Army extremists insisted on continued violence (sanctioned by al-Sadr or not), General Petraeus ostracized them as renegades who were not willing to follow the cleric’s edict of non-violence. Then, his forces hunted them down.

After six months of hard work, al-Qaeda in Iraq is on the run; peace and stability is slowly returning to the streets of Baghdad; and the daily lives of every Iraqi are improving. The need for protection from al-Sadr’s Shiite militias has vastly diminished. The government is beginning to reconcile with the Sunni minority. Al-Qaeda’s ability to attack innocent Shiites is diminishing daily. People are returning to work, families are safe on the streets. Children are returning to school.

The everyday Iraqi is beginning to have hope for their family’s future. In short, Muqtada al-Sadr’s radical teaching and violent mantra is becoming irrelevant. I think he has finally realized that he is becoming marginalized. He sees that he could soon fade into obscurity as his followers flourish.

So, Muqtada will lash out one last time. He will attempt to regain his relevance the only way he knows – through hate and violence. It may not be this Saturday, but rest assured, we haven’t heard the last of al-Sadr. I will be glued to the news on Saturday. It could be a significant day in the continuing story in Iraq.

Richard S. Lowry is the author of The Gulf War Chronicles and Marines in the Garden of Eden.

February 21, 2008 09:33 AM News From Iraq

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Comments

Can't we just kill this man already?

hell_is_like_newark · February 21, 2008 07:24 PM

I don't know too much about him, but I know that Michael Yon thinks he'd be better off dead.

That's good enough for me, Yon knows his business.

John · February 21, 2008 07:40 PM

Dude,
Just give him an XBox 360 packed with C4. If he thinks Atari(right? I think he was the Atari kid) is great, just wait until he sees the awesome gaming capability of the XBox, for the last time of course.

Seg · February 21, 2008 08:54 PM

Before you get to giddy with joy about this and the surge, perhaps you should look here.

He points out that the era of good feeling in Washington DC and New York about Iraq is part of a cycle of unfounded optimism that has much more to do with US politics than the squalid situation on the ground in Iraq.

Skippy-san · February 21, 2008 10:15 PM

Skippy-san

In the article you linked to he is speaking specifically about Baghdad and basing his opinion on one source. Not quite enough to make me nervous yet.....

Old Tanker · February 22, 2008 10:56 AM

Mookie: Still in my top ten "better off dead" hit parade.

I've quoted you and linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms.blogspot.com/2008/02/re-muqtada-al-sadr-is-getting-nervous.html

Consul-At-Arms · February 23, 2008 12:49 PM