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Castro resigns: Fallout?

By Charlie

I figured Castro would govern 'till death, so this is certainly unexpected:

HAVANA - An ailing, 81-year-old Fidel Castro resigned as Cuba's president Tuesday after nearly a half-century in power, saying he will not accept a new term when parliament meets Sunday. ADVERTISEMENT
The end of Castro's rule — the longest in the world for a head of government — frees his 76-year-old brother Raul to implement reforms he has hinted at since taking over as acting president when Fidel Castro fell ill in July 2006. President Bush said he hopes the resignation signals the beginning of a democratic transition.

I'm not the Latin America expert, but I think it is an ideal time to quote Thomas P.M. Barnett:

Don’t expect Cubans to take some passing of the torch to Raul without putting up something of a popular struggle. He won’t last long, and the committee that replaces him will naturally have, as its first order of business, meeting this popular expectation, a demand for political input that skews higher the younger you go.
According to the polls, 76% of Cubans think a more democratic political system would be good, improving their lives.

Also, 84% says a market-driven economy would improve their lives.

And some more:

Raul will rule with committees galore and new names will rise that we've never heard of before.
Then before he croaks (or when), we'll see serious reformers step up, "new era" and all that, and the popular push for direct elections will begin.

None of this happens overnight, but within five years Cuba is unrecognizable. The young will love it and dub it the "second revolution" and the old will be baffled and nostagically pine for the good old days. Old Miami Cubans will be shocked that the Cuba of their youth is not resurrectable, but they won't care given all the freedom to visit back and forth.

Sooner than any can imagine, life in Cuba will ramp up so close to that in Miami, the talk will begin of going all the way toward joining the U.S. Then, depending on the presidential election year, you'll start seeing Cuban statehood as a staple of Florida's electoral quid pro quo (just like sanctions support got you the Cuban vote in the past).

February 19, 2008 06:07 AM Strategery