Pro-China changes in Democratic Taiwan?

The opposition party in Taiwan, the KMT, just won in a landslide, which may warm relations with China.

During this election cycle in Taiwan, Beijing has taken a subtle approach. Last year Taiwan’s President Chen announced plans for a referendum that would ask voters whether the island should seek to join the United Nations under the name “Taiwan.” The island, which lost its U.N. representation in 1971 when its seat was switched to Beijing, has been blocked in several attempts to re-join the body under its formal name of “Republic of China.” While the referendum will have little practical effect — the island doesn’t have the support to enter the U.N. under any name — it was the sort of move that once would have sent Beijing into a frenzy. While the Chinese government has said it would not tolerate the referendum, it has toned down its rhetoric and instead relied on pressure from the U.S., Taiwan’s biggest ally, to discourage the move. In December U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the move was “a provocative policy.” The fate of two referendum issues in Saturday’s ballot (both failed to garner enough votes — or voter interest — to be seriously considered) would also make the controversial U.N. referendum in March unlikely to pass.

Furthermore, China’s ability to use military force to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence grows along with the budget for the People’s Liberation Army, which has increased by more than 10% annually for the past 10 years. Chen says that there are now more than 1,300 missiles stationed on the Chinese mainland direct across the Taiwan Strait, up from the 200 when he became president in 2000. But these days Beijing has shown it can better influence events without firing them.

Meanwhile, it seems that the US military is also working to improve relations with the ChiComs after November’s ship-docking incident:

WASHINGTON – US military officials are in China this week for their first high-level visit there since an international flap in November in which Beijing refused to allow US warships into a port for a long-planned Thanksgiving visit.

The incident baffled Washington and further complicated US relations with the Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). But that’s only one of many issues for military officials as they work to create clearer lines of communication between the two militaries – generally perceived to be a weaker relationship than the diplomatic or the economic ones.

Mr. Shinn, a China expert who was sworn in to his new post Thursday, told Congress last month he is as perplexed by China’s military actions as anyone. “The problem that we have is divining their intent,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “That’s one of the reasons for the great … care and vigilance with which we have to deal with the Chinese military.”