Pakistan's Problems Persist

By Charlie

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - An influential group of retired officers from Pakistan's powerful military has urged President Pervez Musharraf to immediately step down, saying his resignation would promote democracy and help combat religious militancy.

Musharraf's popularity seems to be dropping faster than ever, and creeping instability in Pakistan can be seen in its tribal areas where Taliban have been launching new attacks and confronting the Pakistani Army and Frontier Corps directly. This is not likely to stop any time soon, but it is reasonable to look at some COAs for a post-Musharraf Pakistan. The elections will be held next month, assuming they will not be postponed again, which could leave Pakistan with the following:

1. A weak (but legitimate) pro-US government: The danger here is that this government could be susceptible to pressure from the Taliban and other extremist forces, and may not enjoy the entire support of the military. The good news is that the US would retain its current flyover rights to keep OEF supported.

2. A strong (and legitimate) anti-US government: Think Uzbekistan. There is a strong anti-US undercurrent in Pakistan, and a large chunk of people think that the pro-US policies of Musharraf have led to their current problems. If a legitimate anti-US government comes to power, it could very well deny the US flyover rights, which could severely impact ops in Afghanistan. Expect less cooperation on border security and fighting the Taliban as well. Not a rosy scenario.

3. A pro-Pakistan (and illegitimate) military state-of-emergency government headed by a general not named Musharraf. While bad for Pakistan, this may be the best case scenario for America. The continuation of the status quo in Pakistan may not be sustainable, a military junta could keep up the pressure on the Taliban and curb some of the Islamic radicalization (the Pakistani army has to fight the Taliban on their side of the border, so there is no love lost between the two). This is not the best deal for Pakistan, but it may avert civil war and keep the country together long enough to re-establish law and order and eventually transfer into some manner of democratic governance.

Also, there is this:

On Tuesday, Adm. William Fallon — the head of the U.S. Central Command and top commander of American forces in the Middle East — held talks in Rawalpindi with Kayani. The Pakistani army said the two men discussed the "security situation" in the region, but gave no more details.

Spooky. Stay tuned.

January 23, 2008 09:19 AM The Long War

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Comments

Musharraf is only reason for the today's position of Pakistan. He himself groom the terrorism and give shelter to the terrorists for the sake of his own benefits, but now he's trying to create his image of anti-terrorism...
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John · January 24, 2008 08:37 AM