Gaza Roundup

By Charlie

Terror! International Intrigue! War! Read my Gaza roundup below the fold!

Is Gaza Spreading? Great article at the WSJ today:

What if Gaza were to conquer Egypt ? The possibility is not as remote as it may seem just by glancing at the map.

Egypt has more than 50 times the population of its former colony and 2,800 times the landmass. But Gaza is sovereign Hamas territory, Hamas is the Palestinian branch of Egypt 's Muslim Brotherhood, and Egypt -- not Israel -- is the country that has most to fear from a statelet that is at once the toehold, sanctuary and springboard of an Islamist revolution.
...
Who and what comes next is anyone's guess, though it would be foolish to gamble on Gamal Mubarak, the president's West-leaning son. Egypt is a military regime, and the younger Mubarak, who never served in uniform, is not well-loved among the generals who will have the final say in matters of succession.

A more serious question is whether the military might take a more indulgent view of the Brotherhood, either because it has been infiltrated by Islamist officers, or because it seeks a condominium with the Brotherhood in order to shore up its own legitimacy. (In this connection, U.S. efforts to "engage" the Brotherhood in a political dialogue would have a disastrous effect, as it would signal to the military that it could cut its own deal with the Islamists without having to pay a price in U.S. support.)

In the meantime, the border with Gaza is again being sealed, bringing the crisis to a temporary end. It won't remain quiet for long, and neither will Egypt -- the next great foreign policy crisis on the American horizon.

GAZA , CONT’D: Did MFO Retreat?

The United States has ordered the evacuation of personnel from the Multinational Force and Observers in El Arish amid heightened threat from Palestinian insurgents, a diplomatic source said. MFO, which has come under attack in Sinai, has about 1,800 U.S. personnel, authorized to monitor Israeli and Egyptian forces.

That article was from World Tribune, and I haven’t seen the story turn up in any US media sources yet. The Gaza border breakdown certainly increases the threat level for the observer force, which can probably handle force protection tasks, but is not suited to operate in an environment where an active threat –like Hamas direct action squads- is present. Our commitment to the MFO mission probably does not encompass counter-terrorism or offensive/defensive operations, and their original mission, making sure Israel and Egypt don’t go to war with each other, has long since ceased to be a national priority. UN troops withdrew from this area prior to the Six Day War as well…

More: Strategic Ramifications? This from an Israeli site:

If the present lawless turmoil continues, one should expect Hamas's next step being to try and seize the former Israeli military airfield at El Gora, which could then serve its needs as alternative airport, replacing 'Yasser Arafat' International Airport at Rafah, which was destroyed by Israel . One does not need much imagination as to the threat facing both Israel and Egypt , if this should happen- a forward airfield for the IRGC- their dream come true!

That may be a stretch, but Hamas now effectively controls Rafah’s port. If they controlled an airfield, one would expect that they could get re-supplied, although I’m not sure what brave country on the “state supporters of terrorism” list will step forward for the first great Berlin Terrorist Airlift. Iran doing it would almost surely lead to an act of war, especially if they deployed rockets, missiles, or other heavy weaponry forward–it would be a Cuban Missile Crisis in the desert.

But there is more at stake on the immediate outlook. There is little doubt that Hamas's impressive gains will affect many Arab nations in the Middle East and primarily those, with a growing populating living under squalor and deprivation. Foremost of these will be Jordan , which is populated by over sixty percent Palestinians, many of which admirers of Hamas. Should these rise against the Royal Hashemite Kingdom rule, which they already tried in September 1970, this could prove disastrous to Israel and the United States Middle East policy.

Now that I agree with. Just as the WSJ piece mentioned, what if Gaza (and by Gaza I mean the Islamist movement) conquers Egypt and Jordan ? Syria ’s got a roiling Islamist population who view Assad as an apostate anyway. Lebanon ’s southern area is already effectively ruled by Hizbollah, and Saudi Arabia and Sudan are nothing if not a strategic jihadi manpower reserve. Things are looking pretty dicey for Israel , as its enemies surround it on all sides and gain power steadily.

Finally, a bit of levity: Gaza Border Smashed, Smugglers hardest hit.

Really:

When militants smashed open Gaza's border wall last week, many people in the Hamas-run enclave went on a shopping spree in Egypt -- bad news for the men who make fat profits smuggling goods made scarce by an Israeli-led blockade.

Dozens of underground tunnels crisscross the frontier between the Gaza Strip and Egypt , and tunnel operators make thousands of dollars per night by smuggling in everything from medicine to weapons, and even people.

Tunnel owner Abu Yassin said a customer cancelled a $150,000 job to smuggle 15 tonnes of medicine into the Gaza Strip on the night Hamas gunmen blasted open the border fence and shoppers streamed into Egypt . Since then, business has been dead.

My heart weeps.

January 29, 2008 02:29 PM Iran ~ Strategery ~ Terrorism

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Comments

Dont forget that yesterday's remote detonated Down syndrome bombers in the Bahgdad markets were sent by the Palestinian run al-qaeda group, called Fatah al-Islamin.

They are active in Gaza as well as Iraq.

DoubleTapper
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DoubleTapper · February 3, 2008 12:56 PM