The Bhutto Assassination

The full extent and nature of its badness has yet to be made clear. However, we can expect that it might (will?) contribute greatly to the destabilization of a country that is key terrain in The Long War. That this key terrain country possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and may very well contain the AQ command group are complicating factors. Many threads come together in Pakistan.

In crisis however there is opportunity. If Pakistan can pull it all together and soldier through elections, that will be a big step forward, and a poke in the eye to AQ. That's a big IF.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

And our powder dry.

Quick update... some good commentary and comments at B5.

I invite you to check out our favorite beefy Afrikaner's singular eulogy for Mrs Bhutto. He is correct in more ways than one.

December 27, 2007 04:47 PM The Long War

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Comments

This could get ugly very quickly. If this was al-queda, I hope mushariff takes action, and finally does something about it. I hope this goes smoothly, but I am not counting on it.

mindy abraham · December 27, 2007 06:15 PM

The question at hand is, who will step up to replace her? We have this powerful movement which she has of late set in motion. We have a powerful organization for change.

If those are any good at all; if she was at all a level 5 leader, she has groomed and set up someone else for success.

Ed · December 29, 2007 07:50 AM

Good and Bad. Democracy as we think of it will destroy Pakistan. The best we can expect is what we have now with a friendly strong man like Musharaff in charge. That's just the facts.

Our efforts to support democratization which ultimately weakens Musharaff's position as leader is just as dangerous as al-Qaeda killing Bhutto. It places all the onus on Musharaff to fix a broken country, with his greatest ally (the U.S.) on both the rock side (supporting unrealistic democracy) and the hard place side (lambastic him for not destroying half the population of his country to eliminate al-Qaeda influence).

If we don't support Musharaff right now, then Pakistan is finished as an ally. And forcing unrealistic democracy on them will simply pave the path for al-Qaeda to take over through the electoral process.

Is the ends worth the means?

Is democracy really all that important in Pakistan right now, if it virtually guarantees a radical Islamic take-over?

(i.e.: What happened in Iran when we bailed on the Shaw?) We had a short period of democracy followed by Iran becoming our enemy. This same scenario is playing out in Pakistan right now.

Lawrence · December 30, 2007 07:53 AM