Israel to Invade Gaza?

By Charlie

The IDF has been conducting small scale actions around Gaza since it withdrew in 2005, and following the kidnapping incidents that led to the 2006 war. Here’s the latest:

JERUSALEM - Israel's army has completed plans for a large offensive in the Gaza Strip and is only waiting for government approval, the military chief said Wednesday, shortly after two Palestinian militants were killed by Israeli tank fire in the coastal area.
Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said that until he receives the go-ahead for a broad operation, Israel would continue with its policy of airstrikes and brief ground incursions to halt Palestinian rocket attacks.

The Gaza incursions have been militarily frustrating for Israel. Hamas fighters are imbedded in the civilian populace in Gaza, and use the civilian infrastructure to facilitate their indirect fire attacks into Israel. Recall that in 2006, the purpose of the Israeli incursion into Lebanon was to halt the firing of rockets by Hezbollah into northern Israel. Even after the armored strike into Hezbollah-run southern Lebanon, the IDF withdrew following disastrous info-war counterpunches by Hezbollah. After the 2006 fighting ended, Hezbollah remained in southern Lebanon, still retaining the ability to fire rockets. This was all despite UNSCR 1701 which called for the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Why does Hezbollah matter this time? Because the same tactics used by Hezbollah will likely be used by Hamas if the IDF invades Gaza. Indirect fire against Israeli civilian and soft targets, and then Hamas fighters withdraw into their civilian areas. Any attacks by Israel on Gaza will be construed as warcrimes by the Arab media, and any civilian casualties will be broadcast and trumpeted as evidence of Israel’s brutality. Gaza’s Hamas militants will ignore all of the laws of armed conflict, and Israel will be held to he highest possible standard. In 2006, the IDF culminated without achieving many of its strategic objectives, and since Hezbollah was still on the battlefield after the dust settled, it was portrayed as a victor by the Arab media.

This type of warfare seems to be on the rise, and in the information age we live in, the infowar side of warfare, cannot be ignored. Also different this time is the possibility of intervention by Syria or Iran in the conflict. If Israel suffers another stalemate or defeat like it did in 2006- it may be viewed as weak enough to strike at by Iran or its other enemies.

December 5, 2007 11:01 AM Iran ~ Strategery ~ The Long War