Always a fan of the MILF*, I figured an update on the situation in the Philippines was in order.
KUALA LUMPUR (AFP) – - The Philippines government and separatist rebels have struck a deal on creating a Muslim homeland in the country’s south which is expected to lead to a peace accord next year, officials said Thursday.
The agreement on the extent of territory to be handed over had been a major stumbling block in the peace talks that opened when a ceasefire was forged with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in 2001.
Any time an insurgent group actually gains a chunk of territory, it is a HUGE victory on their terms, and validates their struggle for more land, and political control of it. All other things being equal, expect an information operations campaign to follow once the MILF takes political control of this territory, emphasizing how “just” the governance now is, showing new roads, schools, and happy children. Expect the MILF, and its fellow travelers, to set up shop in their new home territory, and use it to re-fit, re-am, train, and recruit forces to continue the unconventional fight elsewhere.
Just a side note, the US sinks quite a lot of money into the Philippines in the form of military assistance:
The Philippines is the most dependent on U.S. military assistance in all the East Asian countries, said a think tank in its latest report on Wednesday…. Its 54 million-U.S. dollar annual average is over 10 times more than the next biggest recipient, Thailand, another close U.S. ally in East Asia, which got an average of 4 million dollars annually during that period.
By this measure, from 1988 to 2005, U.S. military assistance was equivalent to over 8 percent of the Philippines average annual military expenditure. This is far larger than any other country in the region, much more than that of Thailand, for which U.S. military is only 0.4 percent of its annual military expenditure.
*Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
Not the other MILF…
If you know Filipino culture an agreement is as reliable as wet toilet paper. The MILFs will immediately do something as you described above (taking territory or whatever) and it will be game on again. Or the Philippines gov’t, we’ll get them out in the open and say ‘psycccche!’ just kidding. Pusong Pinoy!
Gloria Arroyo must be trying to head of a scandal somewhere. Plus she is probably relying on the US to stay firmly entrenched in Zambowanga so when they break the deal-she can just say it was all our fault.
This woman is usesless as President of the PI………
I know the PI was eager to shed the last remenants of foreign occupation when they voted to close Clark AB and Subic Bay, but -in hindsight- what a dumb move.
did I say “remenants?” Let’s try “remnants.”