Be Not Afraid

By John

In the short time since Petraeus took charge here, Anbar Province – “Anbar the Impossible” – seems to have made a remarkable turnaround. I just spent about a month out there and saw no combat. I have never gone that long in Iraq without seeing combat. Clearly, some areas of Anbar remain dangerous—there is fighting in Fallujah today—but there is also something in Anbar today that hasn’t been seen in recent memory: possibilities. There are also larger realities lurking up on the Turkish borders, but the reality today is that the patient called Iraq will die and become a home for Al Qaeda if we leave now.

But now the AQ cancer is spreading into Diyala Province, straight along the Diyala River into Baghdad and other places. “Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia” (AQM) apparently now a subgroup of ISI (the Islamic State of Iraq), has staked Baquba as the capital of their Caliphate. Whatever the nom de jour of their nom de guerre, Baquba has been claimed for their capital. I was in Diyala again this year, where there is a serious state of Civil War, making Baquba an unpopular destination for writers or reporters. (A writer was killed in the area about a month ago, in fact.) News coming from the city and surrounds most often would say things like, “near Baghdad,” or “Northeast of Baghdad,” and so many people have never even heard of Baquba.

And that's been this war's ebb and flow. Mosul, Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit, etc. Insurgents occupy one, are cleared out, and occupy another. It's a game of whack-a-mole, or whack-a-bug if you prefer. The difference in strategy here, brought on by General Petraeus, is that surging forces are positioning themselves as a semi-permanent force in each of these cities.

A soldier in Baquba. Photo Courtesy of Mike Yon

Now that could eventually give the insurgent forces nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Or they could disperse into smaller cells spread out through smaller towns and cities. Baquba looks like another new bughole that will need to be gassed. It sounds....sounds....like an unending cycle.

Here's why it isn't:

Today Al Qaeda (AQ) is strong, but their welcome is tenuous in some regions as many Iraqis grow weary enough of the violence that trails them to forcibly evict AQ from some areas they’d begun to feel at home in. Meanwhile, our military, having adapted from eager fire-starting to more measured firefighting, after coming in so ham-fisted early on, has found agility in the new face of this war. Not lost on the locals was the fact that the Coalition wasn’t alone in failing to keep the faith of its promises to Iraqis.

Whereas we failed with the restoration of services and government, AQ has raped too many women and boys in Anbar Province, and cut-off too many heads everywhere else for anyone here to believe their claims of moral superiority. And they don’t even try to get the power going or keep the markets open or build schools, playgrounds and clinics for the children. In addition to destroying all of these resources, and murdering the Iraqis who work at or patronize them, AQ attacks people in mosques and churches, too. Thus, to those listening into the wind, an otherwise imperceptible tang in the atmosphere signals the time for change is at hand.

Anbar was the beginning. This is how the war ends, not with a bang but a whisper.

June 19, 2007 01:26 PM The Long War

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Steve · June 20, 2007 08:22 AM

Petraeus is a brilliant guy, who has surrounded himself by other brilliant men (McMaster, Meese, Kilcullen, etc.). We've finally got our nation's best counter-insurgents since Edward G. Lansdale running this fight. Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

William Scharf · June 20, 2007 10:14 AM

The current offensive is so large, we really need a dozen writers like Yon out in the field. I suppose we should be thankful that we at least have one.

Solomon2 · June 20, 2007 12:43 PM