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Iran's Fancy New Centrifuges
By John
Suck, according to Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk.
If you happened to hear my interview with the Pundit Review on WRKO Boston, I mentioned that Iran's shoddy centrifuges was the biggest obstacle in their quest for weapons grade fissible material. So when I read that Iran had purchased 3,000 new pieces for their centrifuge collection, I was a bit perturbed.
Luckily, Jeff was there to bring me back down to Earth:
So, in case you missed it … some members of the news media are freaking out, reporting Ahmadinejad’s claim that Iran is enriching uranium “on an industrial scale,” repeating Larijani’s claim that Iran is running UF6 [uranium hexafluoride] though 3,000 centrifuges,” and parroting the usual pundits' warnings that the end of the world is just around the corner… Repent!Seriously people, you should just write it on a placard and wander the streets ringing a bell.
As far as I can tell, the technical people have said two things:
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Director Gholamreza Aqazadeh said “With the entry into the stage of mass-production of centrifuges and the start of nuclear fuel production on an industrial scale and with several years of efforts and hopes bearing fruit, the (nuclear) project has entered a new stage.”
AEOI’s Mohammad Saiedi declined to say how many centrifuges Iran had, explaining “We enter the industrial stage after passing the pilot stage. ... Our pilot stage included two cascades of 164 centrifuges; we passed the stage and entered the industrial level.”
As I read these statements, the Iranians are confirming what was reported the other day … that Iran has installed additional 164-machine cascades—maybe more than 1,000 centrifuges in total—at the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz.
Three things worth keeping in mind, before you sell that nice little townhouse on Logan Circle and relocate to Montana:
-1,000 P1 centrifuges (assuming 2 kg SWU per machine) operating continuously require 23-29 months to enrich enough uranium for a bomb; 3,000 P1 centrifuges would take 8-10 months. Either way, we’ve still got time, probably two years assuming the centrifuges can operate continuously.
-Iran still does not operate its centrifuges continuously. Based on Iran’s past consumption of UF6, Iran feeds gas into its centrifuges only about 20 percent of the time, suggesting the machines are either breaking down or that Iran cannot use its own UF6 as feedstock.
-There is no evidence that Iran can mass produce the components of 3,000 centrifuges. The Iranians can claim mass production, but I want to see the evidence that Iran can mass produce ball bearings and maraging steel bellows for the P1. Diplomats have been saying Iran imported enough components for about 1,000 to 2,000 centrifuges. So, my guess is that Iran can make today’s announcement with what they bought from AQ Khan; they may run into problems when they try to push past that number.
All of this is to suggest that today’s announcement seems like a stunt.
Like I said over at Townhall last week, there's a big difference between being strong and pretending that you are strong. Iran is a pretender.
Hotel Tango: Shachtman
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Comments
Or, this one guy could be wrong in his guesses- and Israeli military intelligence could be correct.
Which one do you want to lay your life on? I prefer to think the worst case possible when it comes to Teheran- and not leave my family's fate in the hands of "best case scenarios"...just sayin
When facing a determined enemy with a gun and a fist full of bullets, I generally like the idea of killing him before he has a chance to load, cock, unsafe and aim.
the generation of "i want it now" can't figure out patience. this is what bin laden had for 911 and this is what iran has. two years will fly by and at 45 the years go by even faster. this the same crowd of thinkers that can't remember from one election to the next the dishonesty of the previous administration. God help us that there are some that plan more distant than their next meal or role in the hay.
Nice post,good website.
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Yes but this does not mean that their program should be discounted. Iran with nukes frightens alot of people, me included. Military solution is preferable, in mind my. I'll deal with the gas prices as they come.