Two Carriers Now in the Gulf

Tatically I would agree putting the carriers in the bottlenck of the Persian Gulf is not the best move.

However in todays political climate I fear that a first strike with US playing it safe will not be accepted. Instead I think to justify the nessecary we are literally putting out our chin with a dare. Giving Iran first licks will be very costly for US but I guess for the politico's it will allow a nice warm fuzzy for them. ERR

The only side benefit tatically I would see is that the carriers would be irresitable magnets drawing out the Iranian missiles, suicide boats, and the like into the US layered defences. Easier to destroy them then than in peice meal over time while trying to simultaneously protect defend multiples of very soft slow Eviromental disaster capable contacts like the hundreds of oil tankers transiting up and down the Persian Gulf.

With something like 60% of Arab oil transiting out the Persian Gulf feeding the world economy we not only have to contain militarily Iran in that area but absolutley crush them then hold the line of containment even beyond thier beach. Every silkworm it the back of disgused Ryder style trucks spent will be one less tanker at the bottom, and a million or so Greenies not blaming the US for the enviro impact (cause ya know we are responsible for both what we break and what our enemies break, doubt that see Iraq were Terrorist kiling thier own muslim women and children at market is somehow our fault and proof we are failing huh what).

Not to mention after the British capture, then our leadership comes out bluntly that we are more inclined to self defence (no so hidden try US we shoot back), then we send two carrier task forces right to the Iranian border running war games as close as 12miles to Iranian beach.

If that is not the biggest "wanna try someone try me MoFo"'s in history I don't know what is.

It's not like the Iranian Navy is any kind of serious threat: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/navy.htm
BUT...it's more like, hey brothers, we have this surge thing going, ya know? So, uh, stay in your own yard.

Cuz if ya can't hang with the big dogs (and you KNOW you can't) you best stay on the porch...

Millenium Challenge '02 proved that carriers in close waters are indefensible. opfor in that exercise sank the entire deployed fleet in one big decapitation strike using small boats and planes. Not sure if we've learned that lesson, but, yes, the logic that moving an additional carrier into the gulf does not equal a more offensive war footing against Iran is fundamentally sound.

Bullnav, Iran doesn't need a navy to destroy a navy, especially in close waters like the gulf. That's not how it works anymore. The Cole didn't get hit by a Sovremmy class destroyer after all.

William

I don't buy the small boat theory. A swarm of small craft take time to go from shore to 12-24 or more miles off the coast to get to our ships. I would pretty much garantee as they leave port they will be seen and targeted (that is assuming everthing short a row boat is not targeted in the opening stages in dock). You gotta remember we are not just talking Aircraft/helecopters/ships from the strike groups & don't forget the Anphib groups also prowling but you have Qutar right there flying airforce support as well.

I would bet that after the opening day or so the only ships in the Gulf will be US/Allied warships and US/Allied approved shipping & tanker ships.

The Coe if you remember correctley was hit in Port with strict ROE holding the ships defenses.

The threat in my view to the carriers is the silk worms small mohbile fast big warhead.

Saying that the threat is real and I beleive we will lose men and maybe even some ships but capitol ships or the entire fleet lost, I don't buy that and I would wager that if Iran did they would have hit US ASAP, not to mention if we really believed it we wouldn't have 2 carriers in the Gulf. Can you imagine the after action trial of the Admirals/leaders that allowed our entire fleet to drive to its death?

Do you know how much small boat and airplane traffic there is on the Gulf at any given moment? The Iranians slip theirs into the traffic patterns and wait. Impossible to deal with from a local tracking standpoint, sat-recon isn't good at rapidly picking out deployments of mobile forces like that, and, remember, one of the principal lessons of MC2002 was that we can't rely on the enemy not striking first. This wouldn't be a case of our carriers blowing the crap out of Iran and then the Iranians trying to land a hit or two. If it came to it, they'd hit us first if they could, and in the Gulf I think they could.

All it takes is a single, hard to detect missile boat with a tiny radar signature to get within missile range and bam, that's it. The Israelis showed in '73 that small missile boats with good ECM packages are almost impossible to pinpoint before they get their missiles off. Granted, different situation, but the same principle applies.

As for you comment on the admirals who might "drive our fleet to its death": well, they commended the guys who ran Blue for MC2002, and they lost our entire fleet. Frankly, I'm not sure our navy, even now, really recognizes the vulnerability of our big ships.

While there is concern as all of you have noted about the "tight quarters" in this multi leveled scenario, no one has mentioned the Deep blue and thin blue/black layers that put us in a position of prime superiority should the I rans be so generous as to attempt a first/last strike. Like the motto of old, "He who dares wins." So come on.....we dare ya....:`)

I think what people are overlooking is the distances involved. Persian Gulf is 500 miles long, give or take. Yeah, you could use aerial refueling, but if you want to generate a serious sortie rate, you need to be closer to your potential targets, if at all possible. As far as an Iranian attack succeeding, it all depends on the Rules of Engagement. Clearly the British dropped the ball somewhat. If the Iranians attack, I don't think the US Navy is going to be caught with their pants down.

Yeah, just like the USS Stark...

Clearly, this maneuver is to, in the words of Gene Hackman "give the Iranian leader a moment of pause."

It would be monumentally stupid for us to initiate an action while in the PG. A strike package could just as easily be launched from the IO and fly through the Straits and strike Iranian targets or just come in over their IO coastline. Same effect without hanging our balls on the chopping block. To even succesfully HIT a carrier would be a MASSIVE morale victory for Iran.

Of course, as Bullnav will probably beam with pride at this remark, who's to say that our greatest asset is even ON the surface of the PG??

My prediction... don't hold your breath for a strike unless the CVBG's move out of the PG and into deeper waters. That will be the sign that we're getting ready to do something.

burster, you're right on the sortie rate issue, but this is the sort of situation where you have to measure force protection against force projection. Staging out of the IO gives you much more flexibility and defensive depth, and puts you closer to capable and secure friendly ports in the event of an emergency. Also, we're not looking at staging carrier ops against the part of Iran that borders on Iraq. Ground-based aircraft are fine for that. So to hit the portion of Iran that's likely in the targeted area for our carriers in the event of war, I doubt if moving to IO actually increases the distances involved by more than a couple hundred miles.

With regard to the person who brought up sub ops out of the Gulf: I obviously don't have the experience that a lot of other people have, but wouldn't subs be much more logically placed in the IO? Gulf is cluttered so sonar is less effective, the Gulf isn't as deep as the IO so subs have less space to run in, etc.

US Launching Attack against Iran April 6

Operation Bite: April 6 Attack by US Forces against Iran planned, according to Russian Military sources.

http://www.crusade-media.com/news58.html

Ever Here Of the sunburst missle? It is The worlds deadliest missle. If launched In waves the Persian gulf would be A blood bath Of American sailors. Not to mention Iran Getting A knock out A blow on the big bully Which they would Get With Sinking One of are carriers. Forget About that The u=s wants a Disaster A calcualted Despotism For the Population. NO WAR WITH IRAN!!!