I believe that the largest (and softest) target available to terrorists is the US economy. The economy was the target of influence for the WTC attacks in 1993 and 2001, and the stretch and influence of the US economy in the middle east, related to the export of petroleum, was a likely target of influence for the US Embassy bombings in Africa and the Khobar Towers attacks in the 1990s.
Globalization has given our economy unprecedented reach, but the flattening of the world caused by the internet, 24/7 news coverage, and the ability of tribal and ethnic concerns to influence great-power politics has caused a direct impact on the economy (and by extension) the national security of the United States. In other words, 100 years ago, ethnic tension on the coast of Nigeria meant nothing to Wall Street and the average America. Now, an African warlord can execute a thousand people, get covered by the global media, and decrease oil futures overnight –causing the gas price to rise on the average street corner of the United States.
Therefore, I think that while the WTC was a very symbolic target, the US economy has other targets that are more local –and could have a greater psychological impact on the minds of the average US consumer. Let us consider the average shopping mall: throngs of people frequent the place on an average weekend, there is little local security, and there is one in every medium-sized town in America. Taking the average shop-worn Islamic terrorist profile, here is how I believe a debilitating attack on the US economy could be executed with little outside state-support and maximum “bang for the buck.”
Let us assume a terrorist cell of 20 “true believer” fanatics, who would gladly martyr themselves for the cause of global jihad. We’ll assume this structure is a network -19 operatives residing in 19 American cities, with one leader directing the group. The training and experience of the 20 operatives is negligible. Now lets assume 19 “support troops” to compliment the 19 martyrs –these would facilitate the operation, but not participate directly in the attack.
The leader directs the 19 operatives to set up free internet mail accounts from different websites (google, yahoo, hotmail, etc) and sets up a central distribution list from which he can give orders from a single location, and configures the network so as to limit the damage to the group should one of the 19 be compromised. The leader then tasks each operative to scout their area and pick one local mall. They are to recon the mall extensively, identifying patterns of the guards, entrances and exits, and the mall schedule to determine when the maximum amount of people are there.
While the reconnaissance phase is going on, the “support” element acquires an assault rifle, and some additional small arms, and ammunition. This is done in a dispersed manner, in order to not arouse suspicion. Other items to be added to the “martyr’s kit” are a video camera, and a saw.
Once the time is right, the leader orders the attack to begin, probably on a date of significance to the global Islamist movement. Each of the 19 operatives goes to the local mall with his kit at the time on “D-Day” when he has determined the maximum amount of people will be there. His orders are simple: kill as many people as possible, and then take the head of an infidel on camera.
The supporting jihadist will slip in and acquire the video camera before the carnage is over, and escape –in order to upload the video to a popular internet site such as YouTube, so that the American populace can quickly see the results of the attack. The police will likely storm the mall soon after the attack and shoot the operative –but that was his goal: martyrdom in holy combat.
The effect of 19 instantaneous massacres in local shopping malls would be catastrophic to the economy of the United States, driving consumer confidence down, and demonstrating to the average American that they are not safe in their own neighborhoods. With 19 martyrs, this attack could be pulled off using simple, easily available technology, little infrastructure other than laptop computers, and weapons easily acquired at local gun shows, and ammunition available at your local Wal-Mart.
Even if each terrorist kills 10 people, the death toll would only be 190 –but the odds of achieving a higher body count against unarmed civilians in a confined space seem to be higher. Let’s give the terrorist the advantage of surprise, tactics, and individual weapons skills and give each a body count of 100: 1900 casualties –not an insignificant number.
Most of the scenarios I have read involve an organized terror cell and a weapon of mass destruction, but I believe that a decentralized approach using a networked group could be just as dangerous.
If such a thing happened, I’m absolutely sure that I would not want to look Arab in any way, shape or form by the next day… “racial profiling” will look positively plebeian compared to what will happen.
Note to Sikhs: ditch the turban, at least temporarily. It’s a proven fact that too many Americans can’t tell, or care about, the difference.
Certainly plausible. I have wondered why we haven’t yet seen at least one or two suicide bombers lighting themselves off in mall food courts. But more than a dozen on the same day in different states certainly would be more devastating. Doing it that way would preclude, of course, any beheading video, but, alternatively, the accomplices could videotape the explosions and the resulting body parts strewn about. As Jeff says it would be a bad day (or even a week) to be wearing a turban or a veil.
Just a guess here, but I think the reason you don’t see continued attacks of this (or any other kind), is that the terrorists have gotten smarter. Understanding that this would most likely push the US into an all out war on “Arabs”, they prefer to let the results of 9/11 fester for a while. Fomenting discord via the politics of the GWOT and/or Iraq. Once these are no longer viable, an additional assualt such as this will probably occur.
strongly disagree WFIGUY, though I wish you were right.
They’ll hit us whenever a sound opportunity presents itself. Remember the lessons from the two Arab Intafadas in Israel….. pain, in any form, benefits terror groups, not the state.
I have always postulated the “shopping mall” scenario. I had not thought about the video camera and upload to YouTube though… brilliant.
As a cop, I can tell you that the response would be pathetic. As the infamous “Hollywood” shoot-out a few years ago illustrated, the average street-cop is woefully outgunned against someone with a rifle. And most PD’s still do not issue assault rifles to the patrol level (political reasons more than anything else). And, unless there’s a full-time SWAT team in that particular department (more rare than one would think), response from them could be as long as 45 minutes.
These shopping mall attacks would be more devastating to the American psyche than the WTC attack. Much closer to home and “coulda been me” type thinking.
Another attack plan would be to have cells coordinate IED attacks against interstate trucking and railroads. That would bring our commercial transport network to a screeching halt. And, I believe, it would give the hit teams a high probability of survival. Remember that guy in Ohio a year or two ago who was taking shots at motorists on the highway? They never caught him. He simply stopped one day.
This is far more scary to me than a “24″ scenario like a nuke in a shipping container or something like that.
The next one will be big. These animals are smarter than you think.
If on the short term they thought we were weak, then they would have done something like the utterly sad events in Beslan Russia. Sick animals killing school children. Pure, unadulterated sick animals. Russia, even though it huffs and puffs, couldn’t do anything of significance.
If something like this happened on our soil, these thugs and their handlers would pay for it.
My theory is that they realize this and they are waiting for our soft underbelly in the long term in the form of weak and quisling politicians to roll on up into power to buy time for a huge hit. Such a huge hit, that it would be hard for us to strike back. Europeans may roll over, surrender, and die over a train bombing, but we don’t. So they are buying time …they would be absolutely foolish to do anything on our soil now. They know it and are watching in delight right now.
Actually, if I were them, I would hit now. Our military is so tied down, even if Iran came out and said, “We did it”, what could we really do besides air and cruise missile strikes? We certainly are in no position to mount any sort of ground action.
I think what Joel says is accurate, and yet more reason to keep the 2nd Amendment alive and well. The most effective response would be armed citizens doing their duty, like the good folks of Flight 93 did, because the alert armed citizen is not likely to be outgunned or timid in his response. (See today’s post at The Other Side of Kim on a similar subject, describing how two Austin cops enlisted passersby to help eliminate the Texas bell tower nut back in the pre-SWAT days; VERY enlightening). As Jeff Cooper always said, the best response to armed aggression is instant violent counterattack.
These types of thoughts have troubled me since 9/11. It just seems incredibly easy to do something like this, and even if there are terrorist groups who have rationalized that such an attack would only bolster the administration and lead to an extended response against terrorists and their sponsors, I’m guessing that there are more radical groups out there hell-bent for destruction and itching to incite an all-out holy war.
I think one reason we have not seen an attack like this is that muzzie terrorists are not well based in reality. We are playing the foil in the muzzie “fantasy ideaology” (see Lee Harris). Apparent oversights like this lack of mall attacks lend considerable creedence to Harris’ thoughts. Great book BTW.
I think you’d see a 1000% increase in firearm purchases after an event such as this.
The largest and softest and easiest target to attack is the American people.
The American people have too long been raised in a Nanny enviroment where lions and lambs lie down in peace and the shepherd and his dogs are the real wolves.
I would be willing to bet the next attack whether large or small will result in a total belly up surrender by the American people.
Our fearless leaders don’t care they plan on being in charge even if they have to become Moslems to do it.
As far as Lynch law and vigilante justice goes The police will certainly arrest anyone who dares to harm a member of the religion of peace.
Ya don’t think so?
Hell the democrats opened their national convention with an Islamic cleric known to support Hiz’ballah.
They know which way the wind is blowing and plan on being the next American political party “Hiz’ballahocrats” and we the people had just better get used to it.
Plenty of targets, plenty of “weapons platforms,” simple technology and ample reporting that suggests people are going beyond the talk stage. American-Beslan, Ramadi-on-Main-Street or the trip to the mall from hell is all to possible.
As some have already commented on the fact that reaction is the thing. Compare the collective reaction to 9/11 vs. DC beltway snipers. We’re not prepared for jihadists with suicide vests either physically or mentally/socially.
. . . and per some theories there is a diminishing return on big attacks.
I think flight 93 is the best example as to what would happen. Enough people would run away in terror, but there would be enough people in a crowd willing to fight back, that the terrorist would be subdued long before he could take a head, and long before more than a few would be killed. The long term result would be Colt and Remington’s stock price going up, as more people decided to carry when they go shopping.
Some individuals don’t think that Islam is the
Terror.
When we Cut & Run in Iraq, Iran will invade all of the Near East and confiscate all oil production.
And, just guess what that will do to our economy.
Do you then think we can start all over in
conquering Terrorists?
Give Me A Break!
If we don’t finish the security in and of Iraq then we are finished !!!
Ah, geez. Missed the end-tag on that link. Sorry, folks.
Crazy a$$ scenarios like this are the reason I carry whenever and wherever legally possible…even in Michigan.
Colt and Remington? Ahhhh, I think Ruger, Mossberg, Smith & Wesson, and all the guys who make the beautiful 1911′s would see a significant increase in revenues should something like this happen…
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May 18, 2009 There has been much discussion around the Unc