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Russia Resurgent?
By Lt Col P
First of all, apologies for my absence, I've been getting thrashed at work, in my office in the uhhh, Department of Agriculture... All I can say is that it's in a good cause.
With a Hotel Tango to Michelle Malkin—to whom I am always predisposed to tip my hat—I’d like to mention that some recent events mean nothing good for the U.S. Those events collectively signal a resurgent Russia.
In the summer of 1987 I took a course on Russian history at Roanoke College. One of the points the professor hammered home was an old saying that went like this—“Scratch a Russian and you’ll find a Tatar.” By extension of course, he also meant that if you scratched a Soviet you’d find a Russian. Names change, natures endure.
The recentralization of economic and political power in the Kremlin at the expense of liberty and free enterprise doesn’t signal so much a return to the good old days of parades in Red Square and forced labor in Siberian coal mines as it confirms the essential nature of Russia: authoritarian, expansive, distrustful of the outside world, and absolutely on its own program.
Russian moves in the Iranian nuclear power debate remind me very much of the Great Game, in which Persia was courted (and betrayed) more than once by both Russia and Britain. What is the Kremlin’s gain in a nuclear Iran? That, comrade, is for Russia to know and for us to find out. But I’ll bet that it won’t be good for the U.S. We’d best be paying attention, lest we find ourselves check-mated in this round of the Great Game. It ought not be viewed as separate from the Long War.
Speaking of that epic and fascinating struggle, its poet laureate, Kipling, certainly knew who Britain was dealing with in Imperial Russia . See his cautionary poem, “The Truce of the Bear.” I'm with Kipling; I don't trust them as far as I can spit them.
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Comments
Great. All this to face with a ten-division Army and a Navy that's a paltry reflection of its eighties greatness.
In regards to the quote...
—“Scratch a Russian and you’ll find a Tatar.” I have to ask, in my Gollum voice...
"Whats Tatars, precious?"
Sorry, had to do it.
lol @ Curtis.
I, for one, fully support the resurgence of the soviet empire. Life was simpler during the cold war. Plus it made our defense spending go up!
Long & well live Russia!
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This article by Amir Taheri claims that the Iranians have had significant problems with the substandard work and dishonesty of the Russian contractors working on their nuclear power plant at Bushehr.
But I wonder if this apparent incompetence is deliberate. If the Russians believe that the US and/or Israel will take military action to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons, they can make lots of money from selling technology to Iran without having to worry about the consequences. But if an attack actually occurs it will become politically impossible for Russia to continue selling nuclear technology, even assuming that there is no regime change in Iran. It would also end any political leverage the Russians can get over the West by promising to help with diplomatic efforts to contain Iran.
So in that scenario Russian interests are best served by keeping the Iranian nuclear programme going for as long as possible without actually producing a bomb. Financial dishonesty and substandard work serve both to impede Iranian research and maximise Russian profits.
On the other hand, if the Russians don't think that the West will stop Iran getting nuclear weapons it is still in their interests to help Iran as much as possible. Firstly, it still brings in a lot of money. Secondly, the more reliant Iran is on Russia for its military technology the less likely it is to act against Russian interests (e.g. by helping the Chechens nuke Moscow). Thirdly, helping build Iranian nuclear facilities is a chance for the Russians to collect the intelligence they would need to destroy these sites if Iran did become a threat to them. Finally, that intelligence is also a valuable asset that could be sold to the US in exchange for some concession to Russian interests elsewhere.