Lebanon After The Fight: What Next?

And that, sir, is the million-dollar problem... squashing Hezbollah. And that's something we're not very good at. Hezbollah are masterminds in the art of insurgency. They recognize assymetric warfare and its essence... the people. Hezbollah would be easy to get rid of politically and militarily were they not so intertwined with the people socially. Schools and clinics are run by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Many of these are superior to what the government provides because of Hezbollah's access to Iranian funds. They are also masters at manipulating the media (IO). They have succesfully painted Israel as "the bad guy" in the media and in Lebanon and are seen by the common people of southern Lebanon as "heroes" (even if the rest of Lebanon think otherwise).

In Iraq, it is the rise of the Mahdi militia that is eerily looking like the early years of Hezbollah. There are, of course, significant differences in the political and military landscape here. But, I can personally attest to the Mahdi's capitalizing on American and GOI civil affair projects in the local media (and by word-of-mouth) by claiming credit for these projects. We underutilize our PSYOP and Public Affairs people to get the word out to the population to counter this.

This further entrenches Mahdi as a "hero to the people" and not the thugs they are. And this will further complicate matters when the time comes for a showdown with them. Because they have become "legitimized", they are going to be very difficult to get rid of.

Same with Hezbollah, although they've been legit for going on twenty years.

I don't know if there is a solution to this. The gov't of Lebanon is not capable nor willing to confront Hezbollah. Israel can thrash them militarily (although they didn't do such a great job this time around), but that is still only a TEMPORARY solution. The United States is in NO position to effect a solution to all this. The United Nations are pretty much useless. They've had a mission there for some time and we all see how effective THAT was.

So... what to do...

Lebenon is going nowhere. The problem isn't just one of rival factions, it's one of demographics and birth rates. Historically, Lebanon was stable because of the large Western-looking Christian Phalangist population. Those gigantic pro-democracy rallies that were so well televised out of Beirut were apparently largely Christian crowds. The issue is that the Christians have been out-birthed by Shia for decades now, and many of the Christians who can get out already have. What you have left is a volatile Shia underclass who are not interested in high-minded Western values and political structures. We're not going to get them to embrace democracy, it's just not going to happen.

The Israelis realized this. That's why in their first major invasion they had prepared their own Christian strongman, Bashir Gemayel, to take power as soon as the Merkavahs got to Beirut. Gemayel was brutal enough to keep the country under control. His boys were more than willing to do war the old way, hosing down civvies with anti-air guns and stuff luck that. Then Bashir got blasted by the Shia, and the whole country fell apart in about a second. The Israelis withdrew to their buffer, and that was that.

hmmmm....quaint and amusing?

I shall just repeat one of the Onion's best headlines:

War Torn Middle East seeks solace in Religion

Indeed Ian. If only...

The Mahdi are the biggest threat to Iraq. The moment we draw down to small enough troop levels, the Mahdi will make their move. They are not entirely an extension of Iran, but are afforded support to some degree as they both hate the American occupying force. We had the opportunity to engage them and destroy them. But that time has passed. They will now be appeased and granted a legit place in the politics of Iraq.

I have said this many times and will repeat it here as well. It is past time to draw our troops out of the middle of this fight. We must secure their borders and cut off the flow of support for all factions. A deal must be secured with the Sunnis and the Mahdi must be isolated and forced to disarm. The Sunni group made up of old Baathists ares upported by Assad in Syria, and the Mahdi are the benefactors of the Persians in Iran. Once we remove the lifelines from both sides of the conflict, we can force them into a position to bargain where we have a more advantageous perspective. If we continue to linger in the direct line of fire, we will continue to made no headway, and suffer losses.

BTW, Hezbollah suffers close to 10% casualties by a conservative estimate. I thnk Israel did well, though they were prevented from doing more due to ineptitude at the highest levels of their govt. I believe they will change leaders soon. The hope of the Palestinian homeland in the West Bank is likely dead. Perhaps justifiably so.