The Suitcase Nuke Myth

Random but related thought:

The reason a "suitcase" nuke is impossible is the shielding is too heavy. A suicide bomber wouldn't care about the lack of shielding, which is a bit worrying. (Although, on more advanced devices, much of the yield comes from the U238 case on the weapon, which would severely limit the potential yield of a man portable nuclear weapon).

But the good news is, the lack of shielding would also make it easy to detect.

It's still a bit worrying. Sometimes, ignorance IS bliss...

Suitcase nuke refers to the size of the weapon, not its weight. But even the weight is not that much of a problem. A nuke could easily be concealed. Imagine pulling the guts out of a coke machine or refrigerator, or even a large TV. You could easily fit the device in a minivan or SUV and drive into the US. Hell, put it inside an ocean going yacht and sail it in from the middle east, to Western Europe, to America. Granted, these are all small nuclear devices but it doesn't take much of a nuke to devestate a humongous area. 10 kilotons is still more then enough to do massive amounts of damage, and no matter what the size, the words 'Nuclear terror bombing' is more then enough to make Usamas mouth water.

But the good news is, the lack of shielding would also make it easy to detect.

How feasible would it be to stick geiger counters that phone home into light posts?

I disagree with the Maj's assertion it will be airborne. I'll bet it will be seaborne, on a container ship.

my contention Eric, not Maj P's.

why detonate on ground level when you can get far more bang for your buck with an airborne blast?

Remember, the Terrorist's main purpose isn't just sheer destruction - it's terrorism in it's many forms. Joke not intended, but the maximum possible "bang for the buck," as it were, especially when they get one and only one attempt at it.

Airbursts are generally relatively "clean," after the initial fireball. While there is some radiation, most of it rapidly fades away.

However, a groundburst would throw a huge amount of material in the air and over the surrounding area, and it would be highly radioactive.

So: physical destruction alone, or that plus intense radiation making an area unapproachable for many years to follow?

I'd say Groundburst, myself.

Airburst isn't feasible for a couple reasons. First of all, you run the risk of getting shot down. Low flying plane straying into restricted airspace over DC or New York? If they fly it in from outside the country, Canada say, that's a couple hours warning, and every air traffic controller is going to be wondering what the blip without a transponder is doing in "his" airspace. I wouldn't rate the chances of a successful interception as high, but there is a chance and I think that's a deterrent.

I see seaborne delivery as the most likely MO. There are an awful lot of Middle Eastern-flagged ships, and while we know that a bunch are Al Qaeda-owned, we can't know the full extent of their tramp merchant fleet. Weld a nuke into the hull, somewhere down in the engine room where it would go unnoticed, get the thing into any harbor, and blow it. You wouldn't raise any eyebrows, security is busy checking shipping containers, and not the ships themselves.

Although obviously killing as many people as possible would be an objective, how about economic warfare? Let's say the nuke gets blown in Jacksonville. Suddenly, no more imported cars. Japan takes a huge hit, we take a huge hit, and one of our best warm-weather deep water industrial ports is gone. Plus, you take out an aircraft carrier, some surface ships, and a naval airwing, so it's justifiable back home as a military attack (something that apparently Osama is worried about, making sure his attacks are at least somewhat religiously justifiable).

Airburst is how we Westerners would do it, they're working on a different system of rationality though.

Sorry, forgot to say the other reason airburst isn't feasible. You have to get a fairly capable plane, that's big enough to fit a nuke. If the nuke is scratch-built (an Iranian or North Korean rig), it's going to be real bulky, and how many eyebrows do you think would get raised if suddenly Ayman Al-Zawahiri is buying a gulfstream or a commercial jet? That's a big transaction, and it's too tough to hide from intelligence services. Ships are less traceable.

Finally, capable pilots. We've ramped up our flight school surveillance now. Notice how the British bombers were just going to blow planes up, instead of taking them over, which would have allowed for a much larger scale attack. I think that shows that Al Qaeda viewed actually learning to fly planes as a one-off op, something that won't work again. Getting a guy willing to commit suicide (which is still not a huge group) through flight-school to the point where he could do low-altitude flying in a big plane would be tough, real tough.

I've always thought that sinking a nuke into one of the holds on an oil tanker would be ideal. Either use a timer or better yet a floating antenna for the radio trigger.

The crude would be an excellent neutron and gamma shield making the device undetectable. This is such a good idea I probably shouldn't even mention it.

Of course this would limit your targets since the tanker wouldn't be able to sail into a lot of choice harbors. But blowing up Perth Amboy or Houston would still have a tremenous impact.

The size issue should not deter anyone. Check out Wikipedia on nuclear artillery: the US had 155mm nuclear rounds some 40 years ago. Not very large, but kiloton range nukes nonetheless. And shielding wasn't a problem.

I tend to agree with John that this threat is overblown, but it's not because of the size of a nuke.

Just how many corporate and business jets do you think there are in the Islamic world? The number has to be substantial. And how many of those jets routinely transit through US airspace? Another substantial number.

Now, think about how many sporting events in this country are held in outdoor venues, and have at least 75,000 attendees? College and NFL games, NASCAR races come to mind.

And how many "innocent" flight plans pass through airspace over those events?

If you think it would be difficult to find a qualified pilot to fly a one way mission you are NOT in touch with the current reality. And a declaration of an emergency would easily slow down a reaction to a deviation from assigned course or altitude, at least for the short time needed to arrive at the optimal detonation point.

I can't think of any more powerful reason to ensure that Iran NEVER gets their hands around the nuclear genie.

Marine6 - Out

Marine6,
Yes there are a lot of business jets, but finding one with transatlantic range is slightly harder (only slightly). You're saying that Al Qaeda or another similar group has access to a Middle Eastern businessman of a high enough profile to have his own big private plane (not a dinky learjet, something big with range and capacity) and with legitimate enough interests in the US such that his travelling here wouldn't raise eyebrows, AND willing to give up his life for the cause. Planes are easy things to trace. The plane's owner would be tracked down in a matter of days, and you know the Saudis or Qatar would cut the bastard's head off in a second. While Al Qaeda may have rich backers, I'm not so convinced they have rich backers willing to die for the cause.

Finding a pilot isn't necessarily a huge stumbling block, but it is something else that you have to do, another piece of the puzzle.

The flightplan issue is complicated by, if we're sticking with the original plan, crossing the border, and then getting the plane to the target. Yes, it could be done, and probably would be done successfully in the event, but the risk of interception is real, and I think that's a deterrent. Bringing it in from the sea seems easier, seems more foolproof. It also negates the problem of control. You can park a ship in a port and just let it sit there for a while waiting for a specific prearranged signal, pick your date and time, and then boom. With a plane, once the thing is airborne you're not going to have a second chance, and you're not going to have any way of calling the whole thing off.

Anyone with the money can charter a inter continental jet. Why sneak in? Fly your flight plan, right over a major city.

Not if you're on a terrorist watchlist, you can't. And charting a flightplan in would require visas for your passenger manifest, wouldn't it?

Most people over-estimate the power of nuclear weapons, mainly because Hiroshima and Nagasaki were so flimsily built and were so totally devastated by the relatively low yield weapons of the time.

For an accurate appraisal try the Nuclear Weapon Effects Calculator.

No 10kT would not be pretty but it's a far cry from the multi-megaton airburst weapons which would surely be used in retaliation once the originator was identified (and it most likely would be based upon the signature of the nuclear material used).

I'm not going to get into a long discussion on this issue, but I would make the fooolwing points:

1. There are many aircraft available capable of delivering a small nuke, and many of them are capable of transoceanic range.

2. There are many members of the Saudi royal family who have supported Osama bin Laden for years. Members of the bin Laden family, still in Saudi, have also continued to support Osama without being sanctioned,

3. Finding a pilot willing to undertake a suicide mission is hardly unique. Osama has already found at least four. The Japanese found hundreds.

4. Even a small nuke, detonated over a full stadium would kill thousands. The fact that it would be on live television would magnify the shock value (a primary goal of terrorism.) Can you imagine the number of viewers for the Super Bowl, the National Championship, the Daytona 500 or game seven of the World Series? And, yes, at the moment of detonation most of the media on site would be gone, but remember what happened during the World Series in San Francisco when the earthquake hit. Every single network was on it in a flash and the audience numbers just went through the roof.

I'm not saying that it's the only method, or even the easiest. I am saying that one of the major goals of any terrorist act is to maximize shock and public outrage, and killing tens of thousands, with a live audience of millions does just that.

Marine6 - Out

Having worked on the ACM, ALCM and Minuteman III...I'd say suitcase nukes are mostly a matter of manufacturing ability. The USSR certainly had the ability to make them. Of course, even if they did, I don't think they wanted warheads out of their operational control any more than we did. I don't think open source rumors are good sources in this case and the WSJ "experts" stated some factual errors, reducing their credibility for me.

For feasibility check out the W80. It's the warhead used in the ACM and ALCM. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W80
11.8 inches in diameter and 31.4 inches long
about 290 lb (132 kg)
variable yield 5-150 Kt

Or if you wanted something you could carry the W54 fits the bill. Remember the 54 means we designed it in 1954! It was produced in 1956. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_%28nuclear_device%29
31 in. long, diameter of 11 in. at its widest
51 lb (23 kg)
variable yield of 10 or 20 tons

Marine,
I don't want this to turn into a posting war, but you just completely ignored my last post. While there may be lots of rich guys with planes who support al Qaeda or terrorism in general, I think it's a lot tougher to find one of those rich guys willing to risk his life for any cause. Giving al Qaeda a plane to carry out an attack with WMD is not something our government would ever forgive, we would track down the plane's owner in a matter of days, and we or an allied government would be shooting to kill.

As for maximum public exposure. You're right, airburst over a major sporting event would be a big one. It also limits the times of attack to a couple of locations and times. You blow up a nuke in New York harbor, and imagine the news coverage of a couple million people running for their lives from the biggest city in the US. That's not just televised death, that's televised terror.

Airburst = EMP.

High enough and you can knock out an entire state's comms, computers, and 'civilian c4i' - cell phones, ATMs, gas pumps, automobile circuits, etc.

Imagine the results of a nuke EMP would be far worse of a distraction than a groundburst, simply because the area of effect is larger, and the civil policing of the mass chaos afterward would be estimated to be much worse.

Which is, by the way, why I still own a motorcycle that runs on a carburetor.

Ideas?

Some ideas:
A combination could work, i.e., nuke(s) encased/shielded in a container on a ship Canada, trucked to Sarnia, received by front company, moved to a boat, transshipped across the great lakes to Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo. I live in Detroit area, there is a lot of unmonitored recreational boat traffic, especially during major events like the races or Detroit fireworks.

Water detonations also spread an awful lot of radiation. Examine results of water burst tests at Bimini.

The Iranians are pretty sophisticated. They have many western-educated polished individuals who would not raise suspicion when making arrangements. They have been counterfeiting currencies for years, they could easily falsify identities & documents - false names, countries of origin, business fronts, etc. Transport ships might be flagged as Panamanian or Liberian, but run by Al Qaeda.

Critical transport could be grabbed at gunpoint, like a legitimate cargo plane on a legitimate flight, taken at a cargo depot. Our airports are still vulnerable.

I like the idea of containers sitting on docks awaiting a signal. That way, they could be shipped at different times, to different ports all over the country (or world). Then a coordinated attack on major ports could be executed simultaneously (either remotely, like with cell phones, or with a guy walking up with a transmitter). Think of the damage that nukes in Seattle, San Francisco, LA, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, New York, Newark, Washington, etc. would do to world commerce.

Just to clarify:
By "like the idea" above, I mean that I intellectually favor the idea as most feasible. I do not actually "like" any idea of smuggled nukes or nukes in the hands of the enemies of civilization in any way shape or manner.

Also, PIMF, ship "to" Canada (Canada's ports seem more relaxed than those of the USA).

I have one final comment. Do you think the following scenario might give the Secret Service and Homeland Security absoulte fits?

On the twentieth day of January of each year following a year divisable by four virtually the entire U.S. government gathers on the Mall at the foot of Capitol Hill to innagurate a new president. The outgoing president and vice-president, the incoming prsident and vice-president, most of the sitting cabinet members, the Joint Chiefs, the Chief Justice and members of the Supreme Court, all of the Congressional leadership and most of the Members of Congress are all in attendance.

A business jet with a filed flight plan into Washington National could declare an emergency on approach to National Airport and deviate from the flight path to National only a matter of a few miles, and, at best, a few minutes flight from that gathering. Or any aircraft with a nuke capable missle would be within 20 to 30 miles of the Capitol on an approach to either Dulles or Baltimore Washington International.

In a matter of seconds such an attack could decapitate the entire U.S government. These are the kind of things that drive people in the anti-terrorist business absolutely crazy.

The reality is than we are vulnerable in many areas and as hard as we work to close those vulnerabilities, others will always remain. It makes one realize exactly how important it is to ensure that Iran, and other terrorist sponsors, are kept away from the nuclear trigger.

Marine6-Out

Helerious...kk I have been studying Bin Laden and his ability to be able to obtain these "suitcase nukes" in case you people dont know why they were actually given that name? let me explain it was obviously named "suitcase" nuke because it was easily consealed in a suitcase and easy to hide.Meaning that a "terrorist" could easly walk around holding the device and it could be hidden from few before it was placed and well set off by cell phone. It's simple Bin laden Paid over a billion dollars To obtain these From The chechens. He intends he says on using them on innocent people in the United states.He has been planning this attack for over a decade.He knew that he would eventually need to use his devices against america.He does a facinating job at "justifying" using this bomb by mearly stating 2 facts.

one is the fact that well the usa DID use a much larger type of nuclear weapon on japan after the pearl harbour attack.And they killed "innocent People" with a much larger weapon called a FATMAN on japan.

Fact 2 is that they used spend uranium on thier weapons to attack Iraq and whatever other countrys they well "felt like" .Clearly this is a wake up call for americans to leave. Bin laden has clearly warned the States i have watched and read all his speaches. Everytime he threatens he delivers.Plainly The fact anyone would make up excuses saying they are "hard to maintaine" as the states claim is just a joke.Osama clearly is sitting By china with alot of nukes just waiting to detonate them.And he will do this with ease as he did a MUCH more difficult attack on 911.Everyone will wonder why they didnt warn thier familys who live in those major cities eg washington and manhatten clearly isnt smart.

mortgage calculator uk mortgage calculator uk

ive read they smuggeled' in already thru mexico by ms-13 gangmembers if its true god help us all.check out www.wakeupamerica.com
4 more details.

I believe there are Political people
that dont want us to believer a
suicase nuke is real, or a myth
as the above says. But i was
in the Navy and we had warheads
the size of a hot water heater,
thats small enough to hide in a car
etc. Suitcase is probably an exagerated
size but there is one the size of a
Trunk.

Listen up! I'm currently down here in Las Cruces, New Mexico. I am from Chicago origionally, and Dr. Paul Williams is correct about the Soviet-made suitcase-sized nuclear plutonium-implosion devices.

They have already caught several OTM (other tham Mexicans) who are middle easterners crossing the Rio Grande with bags of KI, which is Potassium Iodide. And most of you should know what KI is used for: to prevent radioactive poisoning to your endocrinal system.

As for the suitcased-sized plutonium implosion bombs, Dr. Paul Williams knows that they are most likely being stored in selected mosques near or in major cites. In 2005 (July), Dr. Paul Williams reported on three radio broadcasts that al Quaeda had infultrated 20 of these suitcase nukes into the US for what is planned as an "American Hiroshima" attack.

There are 20 exactly for one simple reason: so there will be "9" detonated on the first day, and "11" detonated three days later in order to match the bombing pattern used against Japan in August of 1945.

In 1945 "Big Boy" was dropped by the Anola Gay on Hiroshima on August 6th, and the second nuke was dropped on Nigaski three days later on August 9th thus resulting in the surrender of Japan on September 2, 1945.

This is very serious. The center core of any nuclear bomb blast is 217,000 + degress F. The bomb blast hast a circular lateral plane off shoot force of 650 miles per hour which will rip though any concrete building in seconds.

The danger zone has a radial reach of 9 miles which means that the lateral blast force will only take t = 49.8 seconds from ground zero of the blast to the regions 9 miles away from any direction outward.

Then there is the anvil cloud which will contaminate the air, and cloud-souced water for years as it quiet floats and breaks down into the regional atmosphere. This was the real problem for those folks residing near Chernobyl, Ukrane in the Spring of 1986, 21 years ago.

Please take the usage of any nuclear bomb serious. Take care.

--Lee Ducksworth, Jr., B.Sc. 1992.

Is any one out there at this time?

Anyway what I wanted to say is the news was sort of garbled saying we were going to get a video on 9/11 but then they said we should get it within 72 hours (I think we got it in 24 maybe 48 hours way before 9/11.

We have the following warning!
Jihad Falcon Posts From the Belief Balm Forum

A good news of the Muslims we started the countdown an American city will disappear .

A good news of the Muslims we started the countdown an American city will disappear ...An important a very

A good news of the Muslims we started the countdown an American city will disappear ...An important a very

A good news of the Muslims we started the countdown an American city will disappear

An important a very we hope the speed of the publication according to Allah from its spreading and its livelihood unexpectedly

These data were sent to the American masses media and the declaration of it did not take place that and also sent to the Arab masses media as Al Jazeera Channel and Jerusalem newspaper but with the sorrow the declaration of it did not take place except by means of Jerusalem newspaper in day 19 Ramadans and did not spread the statement a complete but spread few of it only that hope its spreading a science these data arrived the American masses media but it did not spread and the American administration knew of it ...

Your brothers mujahid of the movement of the Islamic clarification nineteenth

The moon son supporters

The first statement

He overtook a grandfather

A warning of the Muslims in America

Said Allah was above ( ( he glorified Allah what in the skies and what in earth and he the wise noble ( 1 ) is the one that brought out from the People of the Book from their houses to the beginning of Doomsday what thought that they leave and they thought that they are what their fortresses announced death from Allah then Allah came them regarding a collection that suppose and threw in their hearts the terror that ruin their houses by their hands and the believers hands then learn you O the insightful peoples ( 2 ) ) ) the stuffing ...

And the prayer and the greeting on a master Mohammad and on its family and accompanied it as a wholes ..As for after :

He does not become obscure to you O our brothers are what he suffers your Muslim brothers and the mujahid in the places of the world from a coercion and an injustice and a tyranny and a chase and a killing and a displacement from the masters power of injustice and the lying by the world America rulers, who think they themselves are that they master a making, and Allah testifies that they write America end by their hands, then there they submit back the Zionist plans without an insight or a reconsideration, until became America today defence ministry she moves by the Israeli remote, and what are Afghanistan and Iraq about you by a little after, then their sons there frustrated and defeated wonder ( what we still here ), yes they are sole who know the bitter truth and how no and they watch daily in front of their eyes tens of casualties from their friends the soldiers die not sorry about them until from their foolish rulers, then they hear a lying and forgery and the forgery of their rulers on their nation and on the world nations about number of their casualties and their heavy losses ...

Said Allah was above ( ( and also we made in all its criminals 's nobles village so that they deceive in it and what deceive is except souls and what feel ) ) the cattle ...

And he said that was above ( ( and deceived and the God's plan and Allah the Best of Planners ( 54 ) ) ) the Imran's Family ...

Our Muslim brothers in America we request from you and very quickly the departure from these cities an immediately :

Washington City . And New York City . And Los Angeles city .

And since we declare that so that we confirm for you that we are serious about our warning this, and the coming days the correctness of this warning will withstand to you, and we are walking in our jihad way for the defence for the Islam flag and if the unbelievers hated ...

As for our speech of the unjust rulers of America then we say, waited our conditions after the first hitting to Allah soldiers the believers ...

( ( say then wait you I am with you from the waiting ) )

( ( they fought them that Allah torture by your hands and pricks them and supports you against them and copies believing people chests ) )

( ( who said for them the people the people have gathered for you then you fear them then bestowed on them a belief and said enough Allah and the agent how excellent ) )

( ( a Lord forgive for us our sins and our extravagance in our matter and fix our feet and support us against the people the unbelieving ) )

Oh Allah did he reach us oh Allah then testify

And peace, mercy and blessings of Allah be upon you it

The movement of the Islamic clarification

The moon son supporters

15 Ramadans are 1424 ??

The movement of the Islamic clarification nineteenth

She was founded by a date ( 19 ) Jumada I of year 1424 ??

An urgent form to the Arab and west masses media

An urgent form to the forums and the Arab and west sites

The second statement

He overtook a grandfather

The final warning of the Muslims in America

Said Allah was above ( ( from the believers men fulfilled what promised Allah it then from them who met its death and from them who waits and what changed a change ( 23 ) ) ) the parties ...

And the prayer and the greeting are on the Best of Creation and the messengers a master Mohammad and on its family and accompanied it as a wholes ..As for after :

Our Muslim brothers in America this is our final warning we request from you and very quickly the departure from these cities an immediately :

Washington City . And New York City . And Los Angeles city .

And since we declare that so that we confirm for you that we are serious about our warnings of you, and the coming days the correctness of these warnings will withstand to you, and we are walking in our jihad way for the defence for the Islam flag and if the unbelievers hated ...

And being informed of the unjust rulers of America, you sole in this world that knows of the entrance of our weapons destructive to your country, and what are your last statements on the tongue of your officials by the Ministry of Defence about the non the ability of our soldiers the interaction with these weapons, except to you reassure your nation with the lying and the forgery and this is not by a wondered on you, and what are Afghanistan and Iraq about them by a distant, but so that you know and so that your nation helpless on its matter knows that our first hitting to the first city will be nearer which expect and after it you will know a right that Allah soldiers the believers they have promised and completed and excelled, and waited our conditions after the first hitting ...

( ( say then wait you I am with you from the waiting ) )

( ( they fought them that Allah torture by your hands and pricks them and supports you against them and copies believing people chests ) )

( ( who said for them the people the people have gathered for you then you fear them then bestowed on them a belief and said enough Allah and the agent how excellent ) )

( ( a Lord forgive for us our sins and our extravagance in our matter and fix our feet and support us against the people the unbelieving ) )

Oh Allah did he reach us oh Allah then testify

And peace, mercy and blessings of Allah be upon you it

The movement of the Islamic clarification

The moon son supporters

19 Shawwal 1424 ??

The movement of the Islamic clarification nineteenth

She was founded by a date ( 19 ) Jumada I of year 1424 ??

An urgent form to the Arab and west masses media

An urgent form to the forums and the Arab and west sites

Mnqo
............
The jihad falcon

Then I not caring time I kill a Muslim
On any side he was in Allah my death

the following cities were mentioned Washington City . And New York City . And Los Angeles city

Paul Williams' "The Day of Islam"

Williams says these cities are New York, Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, Miami, Boston, Houston, and Los Angeles.

And in the video was mentioned our Atomic Bombing of Japan, why would that be, a warning of impending attack.

Meanwhile, federal counterterrorism officials are analyzing a posting on an Islamic forum Web site that warns of "a special gift" to be given on the sixth anniversary of Sept. 11, FOX News has learned.

It sounds very ominous from my perspective.

Isn't 19 Ramadans this year?

Suitcase nuke or refrigerator sized nuke-does it really matter? Nonwithstanding several high profiles screwups with the US nuclear arsenal, I think we can rest easy that a US nuclear weapon (or Israeli or UK or French) is unlikely to fall into the wrong hands. Russian-not so much. Add to this the continued growth of the countries with nuclear weapons-Pakistan and India-just to name two. Pakistan's instability is much more troubling to me than the relatively remote possibility of a terrorist group getting a nuclear weapon.

Regarding the Islamics getting their hands on an aircraft with enough legs to each the US;
North Korea has a number of old IL-28 Beagle bombers, most, I believe have been decomissioned. Still, is it beyond belief that ol' Kim would sell one or two to Osama?

Iran had a number of IL-76 tranports, Jetstars, C-130s, heck, they even have a few 747s. Think they would give one to Al-Queida?

I'm a bit more concerned with the nukes coming across our sieve-like border, and being detonated as ground bursts.