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Mr. Jong-IL, Tear down this demilitarized zone!

By Charlie

North Korea has been a source of unceasing problems to the United States and the world at large for the greater part of 50 years. Isolated, and disconnected from the rest of enlightened societies (even China), NK has threatened, blustered, and extorted assistance from the rest of the world. While this assistance (be it food, fuel, or aid) has continued to flow, it has gone to either the corrupt regime led my Kim Jong Il, or his military, which has been pointing its acres of artillery toward Seoul since the conclusion of the Korean War –not the people of NK, who starve. This isolated country has exploited past energy deals made in good faith by America in order to create its own nuclear weaponry, and now they seek to test delivery devices, which will cement their extortion racket in place with the ability to rope in countries like India and Russia with the extended range of their rockets.

Because of all of this, Korean reunification should become a policy priority. But this is a touchy subject with one of the key players in the now-defunct six-party talks: China. Our future (peaceful) relations with the Middle Kingdom hinge on Korean reunification, so with all of these delicate factors in the balance –how might it play out?

The first scenario I see is the collapse of the North Korean regime. I define this as the ruling element of Kim Jong IL falling apart, which could be caused by a variety of factors including Kim dying from either his excessive lifestyle or an assassin’s bullet, a military coup, or a popular uprising. Here are some thoughts about scenario #1:

-If Kim kicks the bucket by his lonesome, then the ruling party will probably anoint one of his sons to continue in his place. This is bad news for the world, because Kim has already shown veer poor skills as a dictator, and an inexperienced younger Kim could screw up the peninsula to an unimaginable degree.

-If Kim (and the ruling party) are disabled or discredited somehow, the next center of power in NK is the military. A military coup that takes control of North Korea might install a more pragmatic leadership than the unpredictable Kim, but it would be six of one, half dozen of the other –the new general installed as “dear leader” may be just as wacky as Kim.

-A popular uprising is beyond a low probability. NK has been a police state for 50 years, and the public is firmly under the thumb of the Pyongyang regime. IF it were to happen, though, the military would surely be turned against the populace, unleashing a Tiananmen Square massacre 1000 time over. However, it would get a lot of troops off of the DMZ…

If the regime just *collapses,* then there are two possibilities: peaceful reunification with the South, and Chinese intervention to aid their communist “brothers.”

-We’ve seen a previous version of a rejoining of a split state when the Berlin Wall came down in Germany –it depressed the economy of West Germany, created enormous population flows, and a fragile security situation. Would that play similarly in Korea? If reunification happened without a shot being fired, the military “self de-mobilized (like in Iraq)” and the regime fell apart, with pleas for international aid as refugees begin to pour across the border to China and South Korea, The entire region would find itself at a point of both opportunity and danger.

-China wouldn’t be happy about this –why? If the North falls and pleas for aid, obviously task one for the South Korean and American forces would be to move north of the DMZ, and occupy all of the main hubs of the North Korean military, disabling their artillery systems, and neutralizing their forces. This would reveal the vast assistance China has given the North, and would greatly damage the economic integration with America and the rest of the world they have been working so hard to obtain. Therefore, it would be in China’s interest to “preemptively” invade and occupy a faltering NK under the pretext of a humanitarian mission, and prop up the regime indefinitely.

-South Korea’s role in all of this is an interesting one as well. Their economy is roaring (thanks to US forces securing them), and if their economy dips, China, Japan, and America will take an financial hit. What could cause such an economic crisis: the disruption of industry, refugee issues, and the cost of military deployments to manage the North’s collapse. It is in South Korea’s interest to forestall this collapse as long as possible, and I think they are perfectly happy with a nuclear missile-toting Kim than the implications of dealing with a failed state to their North.

I think Korean Reunification is important, but by no means do I think it is around the corner. The North Korean problem will be a problem until someone (meaning us) decides to solve it. Hopefully, that won’t be after they test their first nuke out on Japan.

July 11, 2006 07:08 AM Strategery

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Comments

after these past two weeks, I doubt you have a tough time convincing Japan to jump on board...

John · July 11, 2006 12:39 PM

Indeed, I think we've already enlisted Japan to act as our analogue to China's North Korea. I find it rather funny that the media is talking about the "end of cowboy diplomacy" two days after Japan threatens pre-emptive strikes on North Korea. Given the history of the region Japan wouldn't think of threatening anybody, much less North Korea, without consent of the US.

We can't make threats against North Korea without letting China play the role of defender of the little guy against the big bully US. By having Japan make the threats we force China into a position of standing by or becoming the bully (in which case we ride to the defense of poor little Japan).

MMDeuce · July 11, 2006 03:59 PM

What if the very same terrorist that continue to filter in and out if Iraq have been working with North Korea this whole time. Only to start a war with Amereica to weeken us so NK can give devistating blows to Japan and South Korea; possibly other places Kim and military generals dont like.

Spc. Shaun Robinson · July 11, 2006 06:43 PM

Is his family name Jong-Il ("Mr. Jong-Il") or is his last name, in fact, Kim ("Mr. Kim")?

Wasn't his father called Kim Sung-Il?

Nicholas · July 12, 2006 03:26 AM

NK can give devastating blows to Japan?

More likely the other way around.

We hear about the NK artillery all the time. Why can't the SKors afford sufficient counter battery weapons to put the Nkors out of business quickly? It can't be a cost issue. If the SKors aren't interested in defending themselves, why should we be? If they are defending themselves, let's get out.

I suspect the conventional threat of NKor would prove to be vastly overrated in the event. We should tell the SKors that's what we believe and we're willing to try it out.

And the ultimate weapon: Surrender here for free hot meals. No grudges held for those eating in the first 24 hours.

Mrs. Davis · July 12, 2006 03:31 AM

He is indeed "Mr. Kim". Korean, Japanses and Chinese names order the family name first, then the personal name.

This rule is inconsistently applied in the Western Press, but for some reason they always get it right with those two.

The Chinese might get fed up and and take out Kim, and if they were really, really smart, they'd do that, and then give North Korea back to South Korea and play nice with the Koreans.

Historically, Korea has been an ally/client state of China, there is no real reason this couldn't happen again. Reunification of Korea would remove a very big reason for any US military presence, and any possible rearming by Japan.

There is already quite a bit of Korean/Chinese economic activity. A united Korea would just increase its economic ties with China.

And of course, the Koreans and Japanese have a lot of historical antagonism to work out yet, and that could work in China's favor too.

Eric Blair · July 12, 2006 09:42 AM

Germany has spent massive amounts of money rebuilding the East after reunification with mixed results. From what I've read, the cost of fixing North Korea after decades of dictatorship, poor nutrition and brainwashing would make the costs of German reunification pale by comparison. The South Koreans know this and most aren't exactly eager to take on that burden.

Larry J · July 12, 2006 01:08 PM

You know, Kim is really his last name, right? Family name first is just how Koreans say their full name. So, if you were to call him up you would say, "Is Jong-Il there?" Formally you would refer to him as Mr. Kim, not Mr. Jong-Il
Tim

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