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The Corporal Conflict Update & Future implications
By Charlie
Israel Widens Operations as Gaza Incursion Enters Second DayJune 29 (Bloomberg) -- Israel expanded operations in the northern Gaza Strip, staging air raids in open areas and telling residents it may move into populated areas, as its incursion aimed at freeing a kidnapped soldier entered a second day.
Residents in Khan Yunis, Beit Hanun and other towns were told in leaflets distributed by the army to stay clear of ``combat zones,'' an Israel Defense Forces spokeswoman, who asked not to be identified, said by telephone. Soldiers are now stationed outside northern Gaza's borders, she said.
Israeli Air Force jets flew over Syrian President Bashar al- Assad's palace in Damascus early yesterday, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Syrian state television. The army spokeswoman confirmed the report, calling it a ``message'' to Syria about its possible role in the kidnapping.
The Gaza incursion is Israel's biggest in the area since it evacuated settlers last August and September after a 38-year occupation. Hopes that the pullout would reduce Palestinian attacks and help revive peace talks collapsed after Hamas won a majority in the Palestinian parliament in January and militants stepped up rocket launches from Gaza into Israel.
The operation was prompted by the kidnapping of Israeli Corporal Gilad Shilat on June 25 in a raid by Palestinians, including members of Hamas. Israel has accused Khaled Mashaal, a Hamas leader based in Damascus, of involvement in the kidnapping.
The question is: will this trigger a broader conflict? What should we be watching? Here are my suggestions.
-Iran/Lebanese Hezbollah: These guys could open up a new front with Israel, and are well supplied and well armed.
-Egypt: Their forces are staged near the border, ostensibly for “border enforcement,” which translates into keeping the Palestinians in Gaza. During conflicts, large force concentrations of opposing powers parked near each other tend to make situations less stable.
-Syria: Assad is giving material support to Hamas, and got his house buzzed this morning by Israeli fighters. Syria’s army is very degraded, with its Republican Guard probably being the only effective combat unit in the country. However their artillery assets, all aimed at Israel, are armed with the Arab world’s largest chemical weapons stock.
-Gaza itself: We’ll soon see how much of a fight Hamas can muster. Unfortunately for them, Israel is probably the only other army in the world next to us that can pull off a “Fallujah”- type operation and make it successful. BUT if Al-Aqsa makes good on its dubious WMD threat, or something goes wrong with the op, an “Intifada 3” could be launched, triggering a regional crisis.
Two powers have the ability to stop this: America and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis hold the real purse-strings to the Palestinians, and they could stop the conflict in a matter of hours. The suffering of the Palestinians plays well for them, and I doubt they’ll throw in the towel just yet. America can also put pressure on Israel –but I doubt we will.
In the end, this is what the Palestinian people voted for when they elected Hamas, a government that declared a war they cannot win.
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Superb! (I wrote something else and then I read below that I aint supposed ter. So I deleted it.)
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We need to send an appropriate message to the world regarding the recent escalation of the intifada. Trading the Israelis some of our A-7s and CBUs in exchange for equivalent numbers of their Arrow antimissile system and other advanced technology would be a fine start. Perhaps a few Pershing IIs as well. I'm sure that the plant at Dimona could make the requisite payloads for any Pershings we send them in no time at all.