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Libya's Normal Now
By Charlie
Cairo -- The normalization of U.S.-Libya relations is a natural marriage of an American administration desperate for friends and oil in the Middle East and a government that needs to open its economy to the outside world, Arab and exiled Libyan observers said Monday.The announcement Monday by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was called proof that promotion of democracy is no longer a top priority of the Bush administration, which is grappling to hold Iraq together and has turned attention toward building alliances against a hostile Iran over its nuclear program. Libya has been ruled by Moammar Khadafy since he seized power in 1969.
"The timing can be explained by a need for the United States to have a positive breakthrough in the Middle East," said Mohamed Sayed Said, a political analyst at the Egyptian government-run Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. "With Libya, Washington gets a regime that has converted itself from radicalism to accommodation.
This came across the wires the other day, and I thought it deserved attention. The Libyan regime was supporting terrorists, pursuing WMD, and repressing their populace –they could have gone the way of Bashar Assad of Syria and Mahmoud A-Team of Iran, instead they have chosen a path of reconciliation, and recognizing their progress by normalizing their status was a good call.
Did the idealism of spreading “democracy” lose here to the clear-eyed realists ready to wheel and deal with dictators for the almighty maintenance of the status quo? Perhaps a little of both. Quaddaffi (may his spellings be numerous) is still repressing his society, but he has expressed willingness to deal with the US and the West. He could just as easily have stuck to his guns like the rest of the Arab autocracies: Egypt, Syria, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, U.A.E., and the other regional “problem child” state of Iran. The fact that Libya saw something in the tea leaves and decided to join with the US deserves mention, and reward.
The West’s greatest weapon is its “soft power.” Blue Jeans, rock and roll, Coca Cola, and Hollywood movies are much more influential in the world than our armies, missiles, or diplomats. Opening up Libya’s society to the benefits of globalization will have a positive economic effect, which will (although gradually) improve the lives of its people. Politically, the Quaddaffi regime will still cling to power. This angered many Libyans who are against the regime, but they might get their wish if Libya modernizes: with modernity comes social liberalization. In short, Libya’s turn-around was exactly what the Iraq invasion was supposed to trigger across the Arab world, so it isn’t any surprise that America has restored relations with them.
Imagine if the Libyan model could be exploited and expanded. What if Syria were to come to us, saying they were ready to deal if we would give them some cash? However, the true “problem states” in the region, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are already awash in American cash. The odds of extending this “soft power” influence model can only extend so far in the Middle East. Saddam’s Iraq, and Ahmadenijad’s Iran were/are plain old belligerents, and require(d) different strategies.
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At OPFOR, Charlie welcomes the normalization of US-Libya relations:
The Libyan regime was supporting terrorists, pursuing WMD, an...
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So, if I am Iran, and I am seriously interested in economic and diplomatic incentives, I would view this as evidence that the USA is willing to reconcile with regimes as long as they cooperate in good faith by not having WMDs and not supporting terrorism.
Nobody, not including the Leftist loons, really believes Iran is negotiating in good faith. Not an option for them.
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So, if I am Iran, and I am seriously interested in economic and diplomatic incentives, I would view this as evidence that the USA is willing to reconcile with regimes as long as they cooperate in good faith by not having WMDs and not supporting terrorism.