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America will be the sole superpower for the next 15 years

By Charlie

The OPFOR that the Army trains against in places like the National Training Center in California, or Fort Polk, LA, has been in flux since the Cold War ended. Back in the “good old days” OPFOR units mimicked USSR TTPs, disguised their vehicles to appear like T-72s and BMP-1s, and provided a real world classroom for Army units, heavy and light, to train against. After the Cold War, and especially after 9/11, OPFOR has gravitated toward the threat we fight now in Iraq and Afghanistan: asymmetric, shadowy, and reclusive. Some purists, however, point in a hyperventilated manner toward the remaining conventional threats in the world today: China, Russia, and, to a lesser extent, the Arab/Persian armies that work off of a bastardized Soviet doctrine. Basically, OPFOR trains units against “anything they want to train against.” This remains a sore spot to many today.

This localized argument about training troops has a larger connotation: will the US have a peer competitor in the near term (next 10-15 years)? If so, who would it be? The military might of a nation (it would have to be a nation) that could challenge America in a straight-up hot war would have to be able to overcome America’s enormous tactical experience, strategic depth, logistical expertise, and technological advances. Plus, hearkening back to the Cold War, our peer competitor could wage war anywhere in the world –what nation today can muster those resources?

We must remain vigilant to all threats, symmetrical and otherwise, but this post (some choice bits below the fold) takes on the China threat, and gives some non-military insight on how America is likely to remain the world’s sole superpower for the rest of the near term and beyond.

To match the US by 2030, China would have to :
1) Have an economy near the size of the US economy.

2) Create original consumer brands that are household names everywhere in the world (including in America), such as Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google.

3) Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any).

4) Have major universities that are household names, that many of the worlds top students aspire to attend.

5) Attract the best and brightest to immigrate into China, where they can expect to live a good life in Chinese society.

6) Be the leader in entertainment and culture. China's film industry greatly lags India's, let alone America's.

7) Be the nation expected to thanklessly use its own resources to solve many of the world's problems.

8) Adapt to the underappreciated burden of superpowerdom - the huge double standards that a benign superpower must withstand in that role.

May 30, 2006 04:37 PM Strategery

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Comments

Some purists, however, point in a hyperventilated manner toward the remaining conventional threats in the world today: China, Russia, and, to a lesser extent, the Arab/Persian armies that work off of a bastardized Soviet doctrine. Basically, OPFOR trains units against “anything they want to train against.”

There are plenty of Geronimos who would love to go back to the old combat rotations. And recently we have done some rotations that were armor on armor, especially the exportable one last September at Fort Hood when we whupped 4th ID.

The reason that I suspect we don't do what these people are asking is because it's hard to justify spending that kind of money training against a speculative threat.

There's also the fact that JRTC is not the last word in training. We have simulators; I did some training on M1s and M2s in them at Ft Knox. It seems reasonable to train against speculative threats in a simulator and sharpen our skills against real threats by getting our boots muddy at JRTC.

disguised their vehicles to appear like T-72s and BMP-1s

Yeah, I think the guys who did the OSVs must have failed shop class or something.

scooby · May 30, 2006 05:44 PM

I agree that simulators will become king when it comes to training agaist a fairly unlikely enemy. When it comes to training tank crews, "Steel Beats: Professional Edition" seems to be getting really favorable reviews.