The New Mid East Order

I did a previous post about a militarization of the Shia Crescent, but after reading some news this week, I think there might be more to the story. We all know main story of what’s going on in the Middle East, but I want analyze a possible new direction: a Shia Crescent rising, a Sunni Crescent rising, and the secular, Soviet client state’s desperate fight against a)America, b)Extremism, and c)Israel. Things are (have been/will be/always have been) getting worse, and things are reaching a boiling point. Countries are arming themselves to the teeth for what they see as a coming war, Imams are preaching, nuclear weapons are being pursued, and in the middle of it all, the US military, along with the national interest and any hope for peace in the region hangs precariously. Let’s break down what we know:

Al Qaeda: wants to kick America completely out of the Middle East, Knock over the secular governments, establish the caliphate, and destroy Israel.

Muslim Brotherhood/Extremist movements: In Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, and the rest of the region, these guys are radical Islamists (not AQ) who may resort to terrorism to accomplish their goals of overthrowing their secular governments and replacing them with Islamists ones under Sharia law. The AQ mission of caliphate isn’t emphasized, but the destruction of Israel sure is.

Soviet Client States: Algeria, Syria, and Egypt are all states with authoritarian regimes with (for the region) strong militaries (and therefore, power). These governments, like all bureaucracies, are interested in self preservation, and are upset that their populaces are becoming more radicalized and more likely to support radical groups. These governments can still muster power to kill their people (Saddam was formerly in this category), and can therefore influence the radical groups in their country. However, these governments are all about destroying Israel, but are also willing to make a deal if it keeps them in power.

Hamas and Sudan: These guys are the radical Islamists who are now in control of a state, and are trying to enact Sharia on populaces who aren’t used to radical laws. The outcome of the influences these states have on their neighbors has yet to be seen, but it can’t be good. Again, they are all about destroying Israel.

Israel: The only democracy in the region, and also the only power who hasn’t lost a war in recent memory. This country is well equipped, trained, and ready to do what they have to ensure their survival. Also, they have nukes and the means to deliver them, so they won’t take the destruction of Israel lightly.

Iran: Not falling into any of the other categories, the Iranians are historically separate from the Arab powers in the Middle East. The government is influenced by radical (Shia) Islam, and therefore has a different, more “mystic” version of Islamic supremacy they want to project into the region. They want Israel destroyed, but believe that doing so will bring about the glorious apocalypse. This distinctly Persian view of things is only exacerbated by their unrelenting drive toward nuclear technology.

Iraq (the Federal Republic of) This experiment is backed by the world’s sole superpower, and will greatly influence all of its neighbors in a very discernable way if a free government can be stood up and protected. Additionally, the Iraqi Army may be among the best trained in the region at this point, with real, recent combat experience, US advisors imbedded in most units, and direct support from USAF and US C4ISR assets.

Next we have the direct influences: These powers provide the weapons, training, and funding to all of the groups in the area. The US, Russia, France, and China are all heavily invested in the region, and their actions on the world stage are influenced by their commitments in the region.

Then, we have the Indirect influences: This includes the global media, NGOs, the EU, UN, and other toothless entities that cannot exact direct pressure on the region.

So let’s look at some strategic implications:

If Iraq can stand, it will deal a blow to all extremists in the region by categorically defeating them in front of the world. However, it would also bolster the Soviet Client States in the short term because they could effectively quash the extremist elements challenging their rule. However, the potential conflict between the regime and the people remains- and with that the possibility of more Hamas-like electoral victories if the principle of “pure” democracy are pursued without societal and cultural progressivism.

Next, the Soviet Client states realize that a decisive point is closing in on them where they will have to deal with their extremist populaces- so they are arming themselves with their petrodollars, preparing for a coming (and probably internal) war. These states are weathered enough to realize that they can’t militarily defeat Israel, but will still support asymmetric threats against it. Also, they are very nervous about the American democratic experiment in the region, and will do what they have to to derail the Iraqi democracy.

Iran will pursue regional domination through the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Israel and America don’t like this, and because they oppose it, the Soviet Clients states and Islamic Extremists in the region support it. I doubt this is a fully thought-through endorsement, considering a Persian-dominated Middle East is diametrically opposed to the AQ/Muslim Brotherhood strategy of Islamist rule. Iran is using the Palestinian issue to stoke the flames of the Arab world, without worrying about the repercussions of their inaction once they are in charge.

In the mean time, extremism will continue to build, Client States of the Soviets will continue to arm, Israel will continue to get closer to action, Iran will get closer to a nuke, Iraq will become more stable and more of a threat to its neighbors, and the Islamist governments will continue their strategy of brutality and death to all that oppose them.

Prognosis: a culminating point is quickly developing, where all of these factors will intersect –the only question is when it will be, and how big of a mess will be left ot clean up once it occurs.