The China Hedge

Here’s a great article on the “hedge” against China being built up in the Pacific.

US military shift to the Pacific a ‘hedge’ against China: Pentagon

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States is shifting its military might to the Asia-Pacific region and equipping its forces for high-tech warfare as a hedge against China’s military buildup, a Pentagon spokesman said.

“It is US policy to encourage China to emerge as a responsible international partner,” said Bryan Whitman. “However, there is also a lack of transparency and some uncertainty surrounding China’s future path.”

“Therefore, we and others have to naturally hedge against the unknown,” he told reporters here.

His comments came as Chinese President Hu Jintao was at the White House to meet with President George W. Bush on a range of trade and security issues, and to assure US leaders they have nothing to fear from China’s rising might.

When one looks at the behavior of nation-states, it is natural for the hegemon of a region to work on maintaining the status quo –their place as the top dog of the pack. It is also natural for the other non-hegemon states to work to their way up the food chain. In a nation-state vs nation-state system, your biggest competitor is the guy right below you, so in a Westphalian Conventional Wonderland, China is our biggest concern on the world stage.

Since the end of the Cold War, the US has been the sole superpower –hegemon- of the world. This has irked some foreign policy wonks who long for the days of bipolar stability. Unfortunately, with the demise of the USSR, many fledgling centers of power are now trying to rise up and challenge America directly. The EU still has not come to fruition, and will not until it unites under a single constitution, establishes its own security force, and projects power on the world stage. The Arab League, or what’s left of it, probably longs for the glory days of the past where their oil markets could be used as weapons to punish other countries. Now they are addicted to the income to keep their radicalized populaces under control. Africa remains irrelevant on the world scene, but South America is rising to prominence, as are the nations on the Pacific Rim. China, along with India, always have been important players in the international community. Both are nuclear, both have burgeoning economies, and both have massive populations. It would seem that the world is theirs for the taking.

History hasn’t ended yet, and while I think it prudent to continue to build up our forces to fight a conventional nation-state, I also think that we need to keep our eye on the ball in the War on Terror, and try to develop a China that is a friend, not an enemy.

His visit played out against a backdrop of US concern about China’s intentions as it pursues a major military buildup that the Pentagon believes threatens the military balance in region.

The United States also has been modernizing and reorienting its military forces in recent years, shifting its weight from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region and south Asia.

It has revamped its military alliance with Japan, and moved to strengthen military ties with India and countries in southeast and central Asia.

Guam is being transformed into a hub for long-range bombers, intelligence and surveillance aircraft and logistics support. The military plans to move 8,000 Marines to Guam from Okinawa, Japan, by 2012.

The US Navy, meanwhile, is building up its presence in the region.

It is adding a sixth aircraft carrier to the Pacific Fleet and has decided to home port 52 attack submarines — 60 percent of its fleet — in the Pacific theater by 2010.

The navy also is changing the way it maintains and mans its warships to be able to deploy four aircraft carrier battle groups in the Pacific at a time.

This summer it is holding its largest aircraft carrier exercise in the Pacific since the Vietnam War, a navy spokesman said.

Three aircraft carrier strike groups will take part in the war games near Guam along with air force and Marine Corps forces, said Lieutenant Trey Brown.

The air force is investing billions of dollars to acquire costly F-22 fighter aircraft capable of cruising at supersonic speeds and to develop a new long range bomber, all with an eye on China.

“We’re looking at changing from being a garrison military to being a globally expeditionary force, shifting the strategic balance, enabling the military to be more agile across the spectrum of challenges that exist out there,” Whitman said.

“So DoD (Department of Defense) continues to prepare for unforeseen eventualities, from full-spectrum combat operations to counter-insurgency operations, stability operations, and homeland defense while creating the best structure to train and equip forces for those missions,” he said.

Pentagon and US military officials in the past have insisted that the US military realignment was not directed at any specific country, or aimed at containing China.

But Whitman’s acknowledgment that the changes were a “hedge” against China indicates Washington is opting for a more candid approach in spelling out the consequences of Beijing’s military buildup.

The change in tone began last June when US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned at a international security conference in Singapore that China was spending much more on its military than officially acknowledged.

“Since no nation threatens China, one wonders: why this growing investment?” Rumsfeld asked.

A major Pentagon strategy review made public in February singled out China as having “the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that over time offset traditional US military advantages absent US counter-strategies.”

The extent to which the concern about China is driving military budgets, weapons requirements, war games and other activities is “fairly significant, and I think it’s fair to say that it’s growing,” Admiral Michael Mullen, the chief of naval operations said last month.

“There are just a lot of questions about the significance of the Chinese investment in missiles, in submarines, in ships, in technology, in capabilities, that make you wonder why so much so fast?”

“And clearly, putting ourselves in a position, what I would call a strong deterrent position, is very important,” he told defense reporters.