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Can a Nuclear US be Deterred by a Nuclear Russia?
By Charlie
Back in the “good old days” of the Cold War, we had this little policy called “Mutually Assured Destruction” which said that if country A initiated a first strike nuclear attack, country b would retaliate on a massive scale with its nuclear arsenal in a “second strike”. Many strategies evolved to maneuver us around this policy, like detent, flexible response, and eventually the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (I and II).
Now we know that the Bi-Polar world has melted away, and new centers of gravity are rising across the globe, and many of them are equipping themselves with their own nuclear arsenal, and have not considered (or perhaps do not have the capacity) the implications of MAD in today’s world. India and Pakistan both went nuclear as a defensive measure (yes, nuclear missiles are defensive weapons, as opposed to things like tanks and cruise missiles that are offensive weapons.) Israel acquired its nuke for the purposes of defense, and other countries like France, U.K., and China went nuclear not so much for defense, but to raise their stature on the world scene and cement their power in the region.
Russia’s nuke program isn’t much of a threat to us nowadays, and the Russians realize it, which is why I found this article very interesting:
MOSCOW - The cold-war paradigm of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) between the US and Russia never really went away, and experts warn of a replay of the old superpower arms race."There are many nuclear-armed countries in the world, but only Russia and the US have this MAD relationship, in which each sees it as necessary to maintain the means to deter the other," says Dmitri Suslov, an analyst with the independent Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow. "We need to get away from that, to find a new basis of stability, but I'm afraid we're not going in that direction right now."
An article in the current issue of US journal "Foreign Affairs" rang alarm bells in Moscow this month. "The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy" argues that the deterioration of Russia's nuclear arsenal, coupled with recent US technology breakthroughs, means Russia can no longer count on deterring the US with its nuclear capabilities.
The authors, American professors Kier Lieber and Daryl Press, say Russia's fraying radar and satellite systems "would give Russian leaders at most a few minutes of warning before American weapons destroyed Russia's retaliatory forces." By contrast, they say, the US is actively modernizing its nuclear arsenal with stealthy and highly accurate new weaponry. "Unless they reverse course rapidly, Russia's vulnerability will only increase over time," the authors say.
While Russian experts concede there's truth in the article, the reaction to it in Russian security circles was "very nervous," says Mr. Suslov.
"Many people think it's not a coincidence, that such an article was 'ordered' by someone," he explains. "At the very least, this article has postponed any chance of talking about removing the MAD framework from our relations with the US."
This is framing things in a Bi-Polar fashion, and playing up (too much I think) the threat of a US attack on Russia. But is also cuts to the heart of a new issue: Iran. Russia no longer has the deterrent ability to prevent us from using nuclear weapons in any theatre –a huge change from the Cold War. If we went nuclear in any of the proxy wars we fought from 1949-1990, the Russians could have credibly retaliated –they no longer possess that advantage now, and it is making them nervous.
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Comments
I haven't read the Foreign Affairs article, but isn't it a bit of an exaggeration to talk about "a few minutes of warning before American weapons destroyed Russia's retaliatory forces"? Unless I missed something, Russia still has an assured 2nd strike capability in the form of SLBMs.
I skimmed the article, and I recall that it said the submarine force is essentially rusting at the dock and doesn't conduct patrols anymore.
"We can only eliminate MAD if we eliminate those weapons," says Mr. Kobyakov. "Even if you have good relations and good intentions, as long as you have those potentially devastating nuclear forces, there will always be fear and suspicion of the other side."
Right, of course the USSR and the US were both equally bad because we both had nukes. Trouble is, this theory (and any theory that depends on cheap moral equivalence) doesn't explain how we got into an arms race in the first place.
The difference between the US and Russia is we a are a established democracy they are a new/shaky democracy at best showing signs of going totalitarian again.
Why is this relevant, well can anyone honestly lay out a scenario were the US would make a first strike on Russia? Short concrete evidence of a impending Russian first strike in the pipe and I mean concrete without a shadow of doubt impossible smoking gun evidence I don’t see how any president of the US would consider such a move.
On paper sure but in reality the US just waking up one day and risking even limited nuclear retaliation say 10 missiles worth, just so we can what obliterate an entire people and nation leaving a mad max badlands that of course we would have to send soldiers in afterwards to police “you break it its yours mentality”. What’s the point what would be the benefit to the US?
The LLL’s love to claim we are a Empire and Imperialist nation but the fact is we are not and for all with nill historical knowledge that believe the LLL line See: WW2. At the end of WW2 we were the dominant conventional force (in a occupation holding position of all the world short S America, Africa, Soviet Union), our entire industry was tooled to continue heavy warfare, and we were the ONLY nuclear power. If we wanted to rule the world and make everyone slaves that was the time to do it. A handful of nuclear B-29’s and Moscow maybe some tactical follow on strikes Russia would have capitulated in short order and Britain they would have more than happy to rule with US.
The LLL's problem is they cant get past thier evil US mentality. When this mentality is were you start from everything past that will be scewed horribly.
The difference between the US and Russia is we a are a established democracy they are a new/shaky democracy at best showing signs of going totalitarian again.
Why is this relevant, well can anyone honestly lay out a scenario were the US would make a first strike on Russia? Short concrete evidence of a impending Russian first strike in the pipe and I mean concrete without a shadow of doubt impossible smoking gun evidence I don’t see how any president of the US would consider such a move.
On paper sure but in reality the US just waking up one day and risking even limited nuclear retaliation say 10 missiles worth, just so we can what obliterate an entire people and nation leaving a mad max badlands that of course we would have to send soldiers in afterwards to police “you break it its yours mentality”. What’s the point what would be the benefit to the US?
The LLL’s love to claim we are a Empire and Imperialist nation but the fact is we are not and for all with nill historical knowledge that believe the LLL line See: WW2. At the end of WW2 we were the dominant conventional force (in a occupation holding position of all the world short S America, Africa, Soviet Union), our entire industry was tooled to continue heavy warfare, and we were the ONLY nuclear power. If we wanted to rule the world and make everyone slaves that was the time to do it. A handful of nuclear B-29’s and Moscow maybe some tactical follow on strikes Russia would have capitulated in short order and Britain they would have more than happy to rule with US.
The LLL's problem is they cant get past thier evil US mentality. When this mentality is were you start from everything past that will be scewed horribly.
The policy of never renouncing preemption is wise, I think, regardless of the scenario you construct for any exchange. Even if the boomers aren't keeping up routine patrols, most can reach their U.S. targets without being way out at sea.
Sorry for the double hit I got a error message and refreshed got error again. I guess that error was code for done.
This article is required reading for all my officers. It is available at Foreign Affairs online (select .org and NOT .com). The gist of the article is that the US enjoys a position of absolutely unchallenged dominance in the globe. As nation states now no longer have the military or economic clout to challenge us, we see proxy players in the form of trans-nationals and assymetric threats.
The question becomes, now what? With China decades away from any real ability to contest us, we have to decide the role we want to play in the world. Frankly, I favor an active role encouraging democratic regimes and "correcting" non-compliant ones. It will be a great day indeed when the greatest threat to our planet comes from too much economic and social success.
That Foriegn Affairs article assumes that the Russians are going to go the mat for somebody with their nukes.
I don't see that happening.
And as C-Low points out, it also assumes that the US would, for some reason, want to bomb Russia. Somehow, I don't see that happening in such a fashion that it would a 'surprise' to the Russians either. That would have to be at the end of sort of ongoing crisis. (Over what, though?)
"If we went nuclear in any of the proxy wars we fought from 1949-1990, the Russians could have credibly retaliated – they no longer possess that advantage now, and it is making them nervous."
That statement isn't quite true. The article you quoted talked about Russia's lack of technology in quickly detecting a U.S. launch. They still have all their missiles and bombers which they can use to retaliate against us.
In terms of Iran, Russia's lack of detection capability is only a problem for them if you can answer yes to both these questions:
1. Would the USSR retaliate against the US if we attacked Iran?
2. Would the U.S., fearing #1, attack the USSR at the same time as attacking Iran?
Kind of an obvious point, but the fact that subs are at anchor makes them targets, not platforms. When they're at sea, they can't be targeted by anything but naval assets that have acquired them (most likely fast attack boats, that's what they were built for). At anchor, any force can hit them, so a first strike could take them out of play, and it wouldn't even require nukes, though if you're going for a full press you might as well to guarantee kills.
Silos have some chance of surviving, as they are hardened, though unlikely given the accuracy available now (survivable was for the large targeting error in the 60s, not for a +- 10m nuclear strike).
Has MAD been credible in ages?
I can't see the US making a first strike - and I never could, even in the early '80s, which is when I started noticing these things.
I also can't see many modern politicians going for "Assured Destruction" as opposed to "proportional response". That's not entirely a bad thing - rendering the planet uninhabitable for humans (or at least going back to the first millenium) is not really in our interest.
The attack on Pearl Harbor transformed this country. 9/11 just polarized it. Perhaps some of that is hindsight (no doubt there were "stay out anyway" voices), but the political will for destruction just isn't there.
The number of nuclear weapons WE have (or Russia has) is pretty irrelevant. It's the number of nuclear weapons in the hands of maniacs ("drive Isreal into the sea") that we have to worry about.
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A musical about the witches from The Wizard of Oz breaks West End box office records, its producers say...
A musical about the witches from The Wizard of Oz breaks West End box office records, its producers say...
A musical about the witches from The Wizard of Oz breaks West End box office records, its producers say...
Classical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Classical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Microsoft and Peter Jackson postpone the making of a film based on the Halo video game after backers pull out...
Borat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Borat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Colombia's vice president is "baffled" by Kate Moss's success following cocaine allegations...
Classical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
The Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Borat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Borat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
William Styron, whose Holocaust novel Sophie's Choice became a film and an opera, has died, aged 81...
William Styron, whose Holocaust novel Sophie's Choice became a film and an opera, has died, aged 81...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
The Rolling Stones cancel a gig in Hawaii and postpone other tour dates as Mick Jagger suffers throat troubles...
Veteran actor William Franklyn, known for voicing the 1960s Schweppes TV adverts, dies aged 81...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Social networking site MySpace is to block users from uploading copyrighted music to its pages...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Pop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
Veteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years...
Veteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years...
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
Microsoft and Peter Jackson postpone the making of a film based on the Halo video game after backers pull out...
The Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
The Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
The Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Madonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
Madonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
The Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations...
The Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations...
Record company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Record company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Russia's nuke arsenal doesn't threaten us the way it used to, but it's still a big threat, in that someone else could aquire one or more of those weapons on the black market. We have good cause to worry about this, as well.