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Bin Laden's Big Idea
By Charlie
CAIRO, Egypt -Osama bin Laden issued new threats in an audiotape broadcast on Arab television Sunday and accused the United States and Europe of supporting a "Zionist" war on Islam by cutting off funds to the Hamas-led Palestinian government.He also urged followers to go to Sudan, his former base, to fight a proposed U.N. peacekeeping force.
His words, the first new message by the al-Qaida leader in three months, seemed designed to justify potential attacks on civilians — something al-Qaida has been criticized for even by its Arab supporters.
Bin Laden has always been an idea man. His “four point” strategy of re-establishing the Caliphate was a ground-breaking ideological jihad innovation. Of course, like all strategies, how they play out on the ground, not how cool they sound, will determine their fate.
Bin Laden’s strategy of deploying Al Qaeda cells throughout the middle east and the world to wreak havoc on governments, get the West to withdraw from the Islamic “Holy land,” and overthrow the apostate governments in the region. From there, the jihadists will establish their caliphate and destroy Israel, then challenge the world with a new era of Islamic power.
Unfortunately, that first point in the plan, getting the West to withdraw from the Middle East hasn’t gone so well –but bin Laden is an Idea Man, not an implementation/planning/operations type. He provides the overall guidance and lets guys like Zarqawi execute them. So that brings us to the question: why is UBL putting out a tape now that mentions Hamas, Sudan, and us Crusaders?
Perhaps bin Laden is upset that a rival Islamic wacko, Mahmoud Ahmadenijad is getting all of the press these days. Ahmadenijad is much more of a danger than bin Laden, and his eschatological Islamic vision of the future is starkly different from the caliphate ideas bin Laden has been preaching. The rise of a new Islamic center of gravity in Iran must be irking bin Laden (remember the history of the Islamic world prominently featured conflict between the ancient caliphs, notably the Safavid and the Abbasid (Persians and Mesopotamians). If UBL has a caliphate vision, it isn’t the establishment of one based in Persia, but one based in Saudi Arabia. So bin Laden may be recommending an alternate strategy in his new speech.
What new strategy? Well, he is encouraging his jihadists to go to Sudan to fight, presumably with the Islamist Sudanese-sponsored Janjaweed militias. Why? Because it is a fight bin Laden believes it can win. The war in Sudan is going to be a quiet victory for Al Qaeda, because their war of Islamic expansion can be fought without damaging Western influence, making headlines, and provoking action from nations that can strike back effectively. Chad, the latest victim of the spill-over from the Darfur conflict, successfully defended its capitol from a column of rebel troops. This isn’t a victory for Chad so much as it is a cry for help.
Bin Laden knows that for the next 3 years, the US isn’t going anywhere. They will stay in Iraq and Afghanistan, continue to train the national armies, and do the hard work of nation-building. That means that to remain legitimate in the face of challenges to his power of Islamic supremacy by Iran, bin Laden must extend his jihad where he can. His attacks on the Saudi oil infrastructure have been a bust, Hamas is being constrained by the international community (in a surprising sign of unity- and therefore leaving Hamas to fight itself as Israel builds its wall and disengages), and Iraq is becoming more of a quagmire for Al Qaeda than it is for America. Additionally, Pakistan is striking hard on its border region, Jordan’s moderate government is trying to come to grips with radical infiltration, and the international community seems to have forgotten UBL for the more imminent danger of Iran.
Interesting times...
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Comments
Aren't the French involved in Chad, like, in the sense of already committed troops to the place?
This could get interesting.
Soldier's Dad, I'm glad you said it first! It may be wishful thinking, but telling jihadists to go to Sudan is good cover for quitting Iraq. Could this be behind Gen. Vines's comment that they have accepted defeat in Iraq, which no one reported on? I hope so.
You Have a great web site!!!!
Thank you!
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CJTF-Horn of Africa is in place for a reason.
Sooner or later, AlQueda was going to be looking for a new home. Afghanistan was nice, strategically located in the Middle of poorly governed countries. Heavy Muslim populations, relatively easy job to destabilize and overthrow.
Iraq was too good an opportunity for OBL to pass up. Take control of Iraq, and the entire Arabian Peninsula becomes vulnerable.
Oh well, some plans just don't work out. Best to retreat to Sudan, and try to scare away the UN, rebuild and regroup.
The phrase, "Strategic Retreat" comes to mind.